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U.S. flying nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over SK
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

if you do not even understand the importance of controlling shipping lanes why are you on this thread. that has been one of the main condiderations of all military powers for the last century and a half. Its why the U.s. has carriers off the coast of korea and Taiwan and carriers guarding the oil shipping lanes in the persian gulf.


Read mahan "On Sea Power" or Roosevelts 'naval History of the war of 1812".

Oh just read the history of WWII and see that keeping control of the medditerrean and the North Atalntic was key to the allies defeating Germany. or how the U.s. control of the mid pacific region ensured victory agains the Japanese.

But the topic is the fly over by a b-52. thats all fun and games. Jarvis called it correctly
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
if you do not even understand the importance of controlling shipping lanes why are you on this thread. that has been one of the main condiderations of all military powers for the last century and a half. Its why the U.s. has carriers off the coast of korea and Taiwan and carriers guarding the oil shipping lanes in the persian gulf.


Read mahan "On Sea Power" or Roosevelts 'naval History of the war of 1812".

Oh just read the history of WWII and see that keeping control of the medditerrean and the North Atalntic was key to the allies defeating Germany. or how the U.s. control of the mid pacific region ensured victory agains the Japanese.

But the topic is the fly over by a b-52. thats all fun and games. Jarvis called it correctly


I know my Mahan. China seems to have little inclination towards Mahan and is more Jeune �cole. It does not seem to be trying to build a navy to rule the waves, but rather one of regional focus and focusing on low-cost counters such as anti-ship missiles.

The issue is not a strictly military one, but also a diplomatic and economic one.

While that makes sense militarily, for China to invade S. Korea to control shipping lanes makes zero sense politically, diplomatically and economically.

That's the problem. Your scenario makes sense if it's the year 1934 and my goal is military conquest and there is little chance of internal uprising and great economic benefit to be had.

But it's not 1934, China's goals do not appear to be military conquest (1-2% of GDP on defense is hardly warmongering), my economy is tied to the world and dependent on my "good behavior", diplomatically I do not want to be an isolated pariah, and internally I am dealing with potential pushes for reform as well as separatist movements.

The costs of an invasion and occupation of Korea outweigh the benefits. In fact there is no benefit, because although you control the sea lanes, there will be a drastic decrease in trade and therefore a drastic decrease in profits for China. What good is controlling a sea lane that no one uses? It would be China cutting off its nose to spite Japan & Korea's face.

The goal of "controlling sea lanes" is to ensure the proper flow of commerce, generating profit for your country. China invading Korea wouldn't ensure the proper flow of commerce, it would stop the flow of commerce. It's not like Japan and Korea's use of those waters is hurting China, China is benefiting from that. China's ships can use those waters just as freely as Japan's, and Japanese ships go to and from China.

That's why your scenarios are completely nuts. They're in some 1800s fantasy with Horatio Hornblower.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh well then why does China back north Korea and why didnt China allow Macarthur to unify the country?

But if you dotn think control of north Asia is important. Hmm.

No great expense to unify korea. Sea blockade, give arms to the North endless supplies. South Korea runs out of fuel,ammo in a couple of weeks. easy victory.

Infiltrate and deliver propaganda message that unification is good and getting rid of the Japanese- American imperialists means freedom.

But personally i think China like the U.S. in south korea and they know a unified korea under Chinese control is unacceptable to both russia and Japan. it's all good.
But as Kaplan points out for all the technological and political shifts geography wins out. Korea is the pivot point for north Asia. Thats a sad thing for the korean people, always has been.

The issue that really interest me is the sell of the advanced fighters to China by the Russians. this is a break with Russia's previous policy. What it means for the future in the region.
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cabeza



Joined: 29 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
Oh well then why does China back north Korea and why didnt China allow Macarthur to unify the country?

This is your problem. You are viewing this through the lens of 1953. Chinese policy in regards to North Korea today isn't even close to what it was in the 1980s let alone the 1950s.
The world has changed. And nowhere moreso then China.
You keep ignoring the most salient fact. China NEEDS the markets of the USA, Japan, Western Europe etc. They are an export driven economy and until the poin when their domestic consumption can match that they would be shooting themselves in the foot by seizing sealanes or any of the other whimisical things you are coming up with.
China wants to keep the status quo. They want the buffer of North Korea. The million man human wave of 1950 that crossed the Yalu is not going to happen in 2013.

This is not to say that things could change in future decades. But currently with a more or less non existent blue water navy, an air force that is a tenth of the size of the US with about 1/1000th of the fire power of the US airforce, they arent doing anything. Accept it.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Oh well then why does China back north Korea and why didnt China allow Macarthur to unify the country?


Dude, at the time Mao was in charge, there had yet to be "The Great Leap Forward" and the Cultural Revolution, Gang of Four, Sino-Soviet split, Deng Xiaoping, and Tienanmen Square.

Or do you think the China of 1950 is the same as China 2013?

Quote:
No great expense to unify korea. Sea blockade, give arms to the North endless supplies. South Korea runs out of fuel,ammo in a couple of weeks. easy victory.


Just like Iraq would pay for itself in oil and we'll be greeted as liberators and home in 6 weeks?

General rollo. Unlike your fantasies, real military operations need to focus on logistics. Do you have any idea the expense needed for a million man army to wage total war and occupy a country of 50 million? We're talking trillions of dollars.

So China is going to deploy the entire PLA Navy to blockade Korea, and trust that none of its ships get sunk by cruise missiles.

But hey, I can do a fantasy scenario of my own- With China distracted by Korea, India decides to seize some islands and control the sea lanes. Did you think of that rollo? After all, China is distracted and weak. A perfect chance for India to flew its muscle.

Quote:
Infiltrate and deliver propaganda message that unification is good and getting rid of the Japanese- American imperialists means freedom.


Do you seriously believe that? Do you think the Korean people are that retarded that they'll kick everything to the wayside to align with China?

Quote:
The issue that really interest me is the sell of the advanced fighters to China by the Russians. this is a break with Russia's previous policy.


Russia has sold advanced fighters to China AND India. Rival countries. Russia was also under consideration at one point to sell fighters to S. Korea as part of its modernization program.

And the SU-35, while "advanced" is certainly still behind the F-22 and likely on par with the F-35 and the Typhoon.

Russia's policy has always been, we'll sell at the right price.
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diver



Joined: 16 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder why the writer didn't report that the US has stationed nuclear capable aircraft at bases around South Korea? Rolling Eyes

No one ever talks about the subs....(first shots fired in Desert Storm were from subs).
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

B-2 doing bomb runs off the coast of the ROK

Quote:
The American military made a rare announcement that two nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers ran a practice bombing sortie over South Korea on Thursday, underscoring Washington�s commitment to defend its ally amid rising tensions with North Korea.


Side note: while I think many of us think it would be cool to be a military pilot, I think flying a B-2 bomber would be pretty boring. These dudes flew from Missouri to Korea to drop their bombs.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am sorry i really , well I am sorry. I had not realized until i read your post that China was now ruled by a wise kind group of peace loving monks who's only pupose in life is to bring and age of love, unicorns and candycanes to the world. Tell me exactly how they have changed. different party?? Nope. Uh different goals? Read the constitution of the Peoples Republic of China , the part about regaining all of China's stolen territory.

I imagine the new fighter they just bought will be turned int o some kind of playground attraction for children.

perhaps the subs they just bought can be used for tourist to view the scenic underwater world of the yellow sea.

How would korea being unified affect their trade. europe and north America will continue to buy their goods. Oh their will be actions taken. Some Canadians will write STRongly worded letters to the U.N and braave German or Dutch citizens will burn a north Korean flag or two. But they will still buy Chinese made goods. Korea united so easy.

The threat of blockade will stop shipping , can not get insurance. Really think the South korean navy stands a chance against the North koreans and the Chinese navies.

heres a story. after the Rape of Nanjing, Britain did more trade with Japan No one would care in the West. not a soul if South korean went down.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I am sorry i really , well I am sorry. I had not realized until i read your post that China was now ruled by a wise kind group of peace loving monks who's only pupose in life is to bring and age of love, unicorns and candycanes to the world. Tell me exactly how they have changed. different party?? Nope. Uh different goals? Read the constitution of the Peoples Republic of China , the part about regaining all of China's stolen territory.


Yeah, Maoist China and the Great Leap Forward is exactly the same as China today. After all the China of yore didn't have normalized relations with the US or vital trade links, was strongly allied to the Soviet Union, and was an agrarian peasant country. Totally the same China today.

Quote:
I imagine the new fighter they just bought will be turned int o some kind of playground attraction for children.

perhaps the subs they just bought can be used for tourist to view the scenic underwater world of the yellow sea.


Dude, it's called a force modernization program. Every nation around the world does it. Obsolete arms are replaced with new modern ones.

Quote:
How would korea being unified affect their trade. europe and north America will continue to buy their goods. Oh their will be actions taken. Some Canadians will write STRongly worded letters to the U.N and braave German or Dutch citizens will burn a north Korean flag or two. But they will still buy Chinese made goods. Korea united so easy.


Well, two can play at the fantasy game. Before the US pulls out, S.Korea goes on a crash course to develop nuclear weapons. Because of China's long-standing support for Iran, Israel agrees to 'loaner' nukes while Korea perfects its designs. As the shutdown of a US base does not happen overnight, this buys plenty of time for S.Korea and Japan to nuclearize. In the meantime, S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and India all pursue military cooperation treaties. China's invasion plans are put on screeching halt as Korea and Japan now possess nuclear deterrents.

See. Two can play at that game. rollo, your fantasies are utter garbage

Dude, may I ask why no foreign policy experts agree with your ideas?

Quote:
heres a story. after the Rape of Nanjing, Britain did more trade with Japan No one would care in the West. not a soul if South korean went down.


That's ridiculous. The international community has not abided another country being invaded and annexed by a completely foreign power in years and certainly not a major one like S. Korea.

And may I ask why China would invade S. Korea and not say, Mongolia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Camodia, Thailand, Laos, or I dunno...TAIWAN?

rollo, please. Lay off the video games and novels.

falco- Still think this guy has a better clue than I do? Still think I'm the blowhard and this guy is a straight shooter?
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

if the u.S. pulls out its over. Build Nuclear wapons. No one would allow South korea to build nuclear weapons. that would guarantee that North korea and china take over the South.

the only reason the North can get awaywith it is because the Chinese back their play.

You really live in a fantasy if you think that South Korea has any chance of winning a war without help. i t has none.

too easy to blockade. But more than that it's army has no room for manuever. it can not gve up land t just has to stand and fight. Easy pickings. Remember the north has a lot more manpower available because of the ethnic Korean population in north China. Lots more equipment because the Chinese can give them anything they want.

if korea did go nuclear it would guarantee the u.S. out. they wll still defend japan but not South korea.

No resupply from the U.S. those f 15's can not fly. Once they are out of ammo and fuel, spare parts they sit on the grond
neculear, option, say hit Beijing with a nuke kill three to for million. China does not flinch. But if Chinese subs hit Seoul wth five nukes war s over.
But t wll not come to nke, a week after the start of reunficaton when the spply situation becomes obvious, South korean generals and polticians start to reevaluate ther poston and go over to the north's sde.

f Chna s so knd and has no intentons toward the South , then why does so much of its mltary ring South korea?

yeah Japan and Chna are gong to allow South Korea to go nuclear,ha. And U.S. beef spreads mad cow disease. Same logic.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh yeah the nternatonal communty. Hmm. Ever read or heard about the U.S. nvason and occupaton of Iraq. Wow the nternatonal communty really jumped on that one. Some severe letters were wrtten to newspapers and some U.s. tourists were insulted.

Russan nvason of Afghanstan and Georga. everybody yawned.

chnese butchering Tbetans months before the olympcs. No reacton by nternatonal communty.

Japan is a defacto nuclear power. They probably already already have some assembled, but f not they can have one in weeks.

A nuclear South korea would be the reason for China and the North to invade t would n fact guarantee an nvason. guaranteed. it would also put the nuclear option as self defense nto China's hand. Who would win that exchange do you think. Why would China allow the South to have nuclear weapons. Please answer tha queston? Remember the U.s. has pulled out, no help s comng. Why would China allow that ?

Yes bomb loans. they are qute common I believe. Let me thnk when was the last tme a naton loaned a nuclear weapon to another country. Oh never. why Israel they have no real need to give anythng to South korea.

Yes can borrow a couple of hydrogen bombs ? Oh sure low yield s okay.
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cabeza



Joined: 29 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's your point?
IF China backed NK and IF the USA pulled all support for SK and IF there was a blockade South Korea would be up the creek.
Yes. Ok.
But none of those things, at present, are going to happen.

You know what scares me? The US invading Mexico!
They could do it too. Send a couple of divisions over the border and capture the northern cities. Then just nuke Mexico city. Of course while blockading both coasts. They've already siezed California and most of the south west and texas, so i think the time is right for the final phase of invading the rest of Mexico.

IT COULD HAPPEN !!!!!!
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diver



Joined: 16 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Chinese can gain the moon, then they can blockade the Earth. They'd need Mars and Venus as well, but the moon would be a great place to resupply those two from. Once the Chinese set up unobtanium mining ops on Mars and Venus, plus exploiting the gas resources of Saturn, it's all over at that point. We'll all be studying from "Gogo Loves Chinese".
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
f Chna s so knd and has no intentons toward the South , then why does so much of its mltary ring South korea?


Because it has to put it somewhere and the Russian and Indian borders are neither the most hospitable or most practicable locations.

Quote:
Yeah Japan and Chna are gong to allow South Korea to go nuclear,ha.


Somehow the far weaker United States caved to Big Bad China and N.Korea went nuclear, and Mighty China will prevent S. Korea going nuclear as part of a U.S. withdrawal because the U.S. is so feeble.

How come in your mind the U.S. and South Korea are these inpet bumblers who are cowed into submission, while China, the country that fears uprising and separatist movements within its borders and is still a generation behind the west in military tech and capability is this mighty behemoth that will do no wrong?

Quote:
say hit Beijing with a nuke kill three to for million. China does not flinch


In rollo's mind China can get hit by nuke on Beijing, but that will do nothing to its markets and money will just keep on flowing while the rest of the world just does nothing.

Quote:
Oh yeah the nternatonal communty. Hmm. Ever read or heard about the U.S. nvason and occupaton of Iraq. Wow the nternatonal communty really jumped on that one. Some severe letters were wrtten to newspapers and some U.s. tourists were insulted.

Russan nvason of Afghanstan and Georga. everybody yawned.


How many of those countries were annexed? Heck, Georgia even kept its regime.

Quote:
Why would China allow the South to have nuclear weapons. Please answer tha queston? Remember the U.s. has pulled out, no help s comng. Why would China allow that ?


Pullouts don't happen overnight in the real world. Maybe in your fantasy world you double click on the troops and the next game turn the troops are gone, but it takes years to draw down bases. In the interim that gives S. Korea the time to develop or acquire weapons.

Quote:
Yes bomb loans. they are qute common I believe. Let me thnk when was the last tme a naton loaned a nuclear weapon to another country. Oh never. why Israel they have no real need to give anythng to South korea.


So the idea of North Korea sharing nuclear tech with Pakistan and Iran is fine (because it has already happened), but the idea of Israel sharing nuclear tech with S. Korea is out of left field? S. Korea, the 13th strongest economy in the world. Israel, the country that shared nuclear development with S. Africa. In counter to N. Korea, the country that gave Iran, Israel's present greatest antagonist, nuclear and ballistic missile technology.

Do you not see how the Israelis might want to keep N. Korea under wraps and would promote the transfer of nuclear technology to S. Korea as a means to enable that?

Again, its the symptom of "in order for this fantasy to work" the rest of the world, namely S. Korea, Japan, the U.S., India, Israel, etc. have to be completely inept and devoid of any willingness towards confrontation, while the Chinese are masterful strategists and diplomats, correct in every move, and everyone bows to their will.

Quote:
chnese butchering Tbetans months before the olympcs. No reacton by nternatonal communty.


Tibet is part of Chinese sovereign territory, recognized by the world. If you don't understand the diplomatic and political significance of that, you are a moron.

rollo, your ideas are nonsense and you are barely literate and coherent as a writer.
===================================

falco, comment? Still backing this guy? Still think his head is on straighter than mine? How's that expert analysis working out for ya there falco?
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rollo, I've read through your posts and they are by far the most deluded crap I've read in a long time.

What possible benefit would there be for China to try and take over SK, when it is already having headaches with the North? Just about the only country they could invade and get away with would be NK.

And SK would go nuclear if that happened. The thing about nuclear weapons is that they raise the cost of war to the point where no sane state will contemplate using them except in the most extreme conditions. Certainly not for 'economic gain.'
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