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Real Estate bubble ?? or is it gonna keep inflating!
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, for sure, man. I have no doubt it's cheaper in smaller towns and cities.

I just thought we were talking about Seoul (you had mentioned it earlier in relation to that 200 number).
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I kind of agree with JValmer here. There is a real wage gap in Korea, though one that I think will somewhat disappear as the older generation, often farmers, start to pass on.

The last I read the average income in an urban area in Korea was about 3.5 million, it may be slightly higher in Seoul - intuitively, that is why people want to live and work in Seoul - wages and opportunity for money are higher.

Now, if you want a house in Gangnam, you probably aren't going to find one in the 200 - 500 million range, but in other parts of the city, it is available.

I used to live in a villa in Seoul which went for about 100 mill to buy, 60 to Jeonsae. There are plenty of cheaper places in Seoul as well.

Now, it may not be what you and I call great, but for the average Korean, it is probably just fine.

And, of course, if you do not want to buy, the jeonsae is probably half of that (100 - 250 mill), well within the means of many Koreans.

Furthermore, as a general rule, the more impoverished tend to be older Koreans, who either purchased homes many years ago at much cheaper prices or were never able to afford a home in the first place.

So, if you assume the average wage in Seoul is somewhere around 35 million a year, than they can afford a home at around 350 million. Assume that some make more and some make less and you probably have the right spread for homes.

This is of course is not to minimalize the plight of people who are fighting to stay out of poverty. No doubt there are people like that. But, there are people like that in any real estate market. The point is that Korean homes are not as unaffordable as some make them out to be.

Now, whether they are good values for the money is a whole other question. One that I tend to think they are not as my cultural expectations are somewhat different. But, affordable? Maybe, they are.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd love to see these listings and the areas they're in. Of course, we'll most likely differ when it comes to "very nice homes", but I've been around the city a fair bit, and most apartments I see range from 300-800+ and those are not necessarily huge places. My place is valued at around 700-800... and it's only a 2 bdrm.

I was just at a buddy's house up near Nowon (far north in Seoul). Even his place, with one bedroom and a galley kitchen, was about 300. Everyone wants to just say "Gangnam is expensive", but it's not just Gangnam... I can't think of a place in Seoul I would say is "cheap" for realestate.

Let me ask you guys... what's the average wage for a person starting work in a company? Any guess? How about - what's the main reason people say they put off marriage?

It's not just poor old ppl that are having troubles in this economy. MANY young families are struggling under the weight of it all - and property prices are a huge part of that.

Again to say that "most people earn enough to afford to buy a home in Seoul"... that just doesn't ring true to me.

jvalmer wrote:
It's essentially only Seoul, parts of Gyeeonggi, and maybe parts of Busan, that has seen this astronomical rise in housing prices. The rest of the country, even parts of Seoul, have very nice homes priced in that 200 to 500 million-won range.

One of the factors for getting a mortgage in Canada is by taking their take home income and times it by 10. The lower that multiplying factor is, the more likely the bank will give you a mortgage. And most Koreans fall in that x10 range.


Bolded is the parts I object to.

Ask people living in Seoul what they think of the real estate market.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain Corea wrote:
Let me ask you guys... what's the average wage for a person starting work in a company? Any guess? How about - what's the main reason people say they put off marriage?

For a fresh grad engineer at one of the big boys is around 30 million/yr. So for a smaller firm, I'd guess in the mid-20's.

For a starting full-time public school teacher about 24 million. Same goes for a new-hired civil servant.

One of my good teacher friend's younger brother (24 yrs old) just got hired in March as a government youth-counselor and is making 2.1-million a month.

So I'd say, if you are a university grad, and lucky enough to be hired, your probably making in the mid-20-million/yr range. However I have little idea what blue-collar workers make, or guys in the service sector, like the mechanics or those guys who own, or work, for stores and gas stations. But I'd guess if full-time maybe 1.5-ish million/month, which is close to that 20-million.

I once met an Indonesian factory worker 5 years ago and he was making 900k/month, and he seemed pretty happy with that, and was (for an Indonesian) building a small fortune. No way a Korean 20 year old would work for anything lower than that. That's why I'd say 1.5-ish for some high-school dropout working some lousy job full-time.

Reason many Koreans put off marriage?
Because Koreans put financial security high on the list for marriage. While in North America many are willing to suffer struggling to make rents while married. In Korea, young people, and their parents, rather they stay at home until they have a little bit of savings to get rolling start on marriage. But, marriage is hard and often the first sign of trouble it's splits-ville. Not only Koreans btw...
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure engineers are a good example of average workers... and even that is at 30 mill. Not very high.

The jobs you've mentioned are pretty sought after. And I really wish you'd talk to average office workers. They often start around 1.5 or lower.
I've worked in 20+ companies here in Seoul over the years, and the discussion of income and living expenses comes up tons!

You mention other professions... but you're not sure. Ask them, if ya ever get a good opportunity. Taxi drivers love to say how much they make. lol
Honestly, man, I think it's easy to surround yourself with teachers/gov employees and assume most have the same life.

I walk into Emart and I KNOW those dozens of workers are not making anywhere near that. For every office building out there, look at all of those supporting it - the sub contractors, the part timers...


Obviously we don't agree on this... just like we don't agree on what constitutes a nice place.

I just think it's tough on a lot of people in Seoul to buy a home - but by your assessment, it's easy peasy. /shrug
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain Corea wrote:
I'm not sure engineers are a good example of average workers... and even that is at 30 mill. Not very high.

With the tax rate here, the take home for a starting engineer is similar.

People love complaining about living expenses. Especially here, but that's because they are trying to keep up with the Joneses.

You do mention those people at Emart and what have you. I see a lot of mothers and students working at Emart. So a lot of these adjummas are supplementing that household income. I still do think most households (close to 70%) will make over 20-million.

Sure they might not realistically be able to afford a new home with just 20-million, they are 'barely above water'. But most of the world is like that, because they are always comparing themselves with the family next door (or under/over them, literally).
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae

PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


Average household income 3.8 million Won. 45 million a year. Next.


http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english/news/1/7/index.board?bmode=read&aSeq=254308&pageNo=&rowNum=10&amSeq=&sTarget=&sTxt=
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for chiming in... but "average" was not the discussion. MOST was the discussion.


I think there's a issue with income gap, and the divide is getting worse.

Here's an interesting average specifically for Seoul, but again, I'm not concerned with averages as they can be skewed by extremes on either end.

The reason I may seem to be harping on "most" is because I remember seeing an income breakdown per population a year or so back. I was pretty shocked at the distribution. Far more people were making 3 mill and under than I would have imagined. (I've tried to find the article again... but no luck so far)

jvalmer wrote:
Captain Corea wrote:
I'm not sure engineers are a good example of average workers... and even that is at 30 mill. Not very high.

With the tax rate here, the take home for a starting engineer is similar.

People love complaining about living expenses. Especially here, but that's because they are trying to keep up with the Joneses.

You do mention those people at Emart and what have you. I see a lot of mothers and students working at Emart. So a lot of these adjummas are supplementing that household income. I still do think most households (close to 70%) will make over 20-million.

Sure they might not realistically be able to afford a new home with just 20-million, they are 'barely above water'. But most of the world is like that, because they are always comparing themselves with the family next door (or under/over them, literally).


So just so I'm clear on this, you're saying MOST families would have NO DIFFICULTY in buying a nice home in Seoul?

Because honestly, that runs pretty counter with my experiences and observations.


Quote:
People love complaining about living expenses. Especially here, but that's because they are trying to keep up with the Joneses.


I suspect this is where we differ a lot on this. Our previous conversation about apt size showed that we both had very different standards when it came to a comfortable size for a family home. I suspect that you might think of me s "Keeping up with the Jones" because I like places that are bigger than what you like.
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae