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Aelric
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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 Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 3:59 pm Post subject: An unbiased assesment - Is Korea pulling out of EFL |
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My friends, both in Korea and having left Korea are all advising against the prospect that I return there. I worked there for two years with EPIK and I kinda want to go back after three years of struggling in Thailand. I remember the money was nice, the expats were mostly agreeable and not sex tourists like Thailand and while it was far from perfect work, it was at least stable in EPIK.
So, I'm thinking of signing up again and literally everyone is telling me that EPIK is done, that EFL is done, that Korea is about to yank the whole program, that Hagwons are all shutting down. And yet, it seems to me that EPIK is till olperating as normal, I've seem little official news about this and nothing regarding declaired policies. Hell, my friends even say that the universities are goina start closing down due to the population decrease expected over the next 10 years. This all seems like alarmist, end of the world stuff, but then again, it happened pretty quick in Taiwan and Hong Kong when the industries dried up over there. I was hearing this 'end of the world stuff back in 2008 when I first arrived there after the financial collapse, and things were totally fine. I dunno what the truth really is. So, I'm crowd-sourcing. What do all you guys think? and be honest and objective, try not to let emotions or personal experience cloud you answer, as I fear that is what is happening with the folks I know. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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alongway
Joined: 02 Jan 2012
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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anyone telling you hagwons are all shutting down is an idiot. Hagwons come and go, there is no evidence the industry is suddenly shutting down.
Some of the public schools are pulling out, in a few years they'll be back when it fails. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| alongway wrote: |
| Some of the public schools are pulling out, in a few years they'll be back when it fails. |
Why would you assume that? The Korean teachers don't want native teachers there, so it is unlikely they will come back. Also, the English level of Korean teachers has improved to the point we are no longer needed. We are irrelevant now. |
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alongway
Joined: 02 Jan 2012
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| alongway wrote: |
| Some of the public schools are pulling out, in a few years they'll be back when it fails. |
Why would you assume that? The Korean teachers don't want native teachers there, so it is unlikely they will come back. Also, the English level of Korean teachers has improved to the point we are no longer needed. We are irrelevant now. |
No it hasn't, and the teachers don't decide. The parents do.
and the evidence for hagwons closing? Not government numbers showing amount of hagwons, just some reporter who saw a couple for rent signs? Wow..what compelling evidence.
Maybe no one wants to open a hagwon in the ultra expensive daechi area right now. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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alongway
Joined: 02 Jan 2012
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20121210000781 |
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| There are 1,070 private learning institutes newly registered this year, down from 1,206 a year ago, while about 1,200 schools closed their doors, the report said. |
Still over a thousand new schools. 2 percent since 2009 is not a massive decline, it's still a 19 trillion won industry.
They also make the mistake of showing Seoul numbers, but then claiming the industry is down all over Korea, yet don't show country wide numbers. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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alongway
Joined: 02 Jan 2012
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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If you need me to do the math for you, then you really need to spend less time on the forums and more time in grade 3 math class. 302 hagwon reduction since 2009 is a 2.2% drop, which could be normal fluctuation. Give it 3 or 4 more years and then you'll know if they're really going down.
That's a spending graph, not the number of hagwons korea wide. They showed the seoul hagwon numbers in that article, but then made a claim about the number of hagwons country wide. They are not the same thing. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2949493
The Herald link just gives the number of hakwons in Seoul.
Here's one that gives the number of hakwons in KOREA in 2010 (well after the financial crunch in 2009)
http://gordonbwest.com/korean-context/
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| The number of hagwons increased from 71,447 in 2005 to 84,123 in 2010 with 5.4 million attendees. Despite tensions in Korea over cost of this education, English language hagwons have boomed, with the number of foreign teachers increasing from 6,414 in 2000 to 23,600 in 2010, a 73% increase (KIS, 2011). |
Granted the stats are 3 years old...but things are not likely to have massively changed in 3 short years. Also as the author notes...there is likely to be another massive boom when the NEAT is implemented.
In fact as this next link points out...it's already happening
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20120313001240&cpv=0
Last edited by TheUrbanMyth on Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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Huge decline there....
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from 13,510 in 2009 when the crash really started affecting Korea down to 13,208 last year. A fall of some 300 hagwons out of 13,000.
Public schools haven't dropped much either from their historic run. Yes, they are down from their peak in 2008 and have pretty much eliminated jobs in the middle and high schools (where they were essentially useless anyway for any number of reasons) to putting them into the elementary schools where they are more effective in learning and less focused on "teach to the test".
While Korea is not at peak numbers (about 30,000 NETs in 2008 they still absorb some 22,000 NETs per year (new and renewals) - significantly increased from the 6000 E2s a decade ago (2003). *numbers from immigration.go.kr .
The big change in the market is in the supply of teachers from the US (over 10,000 now as compared to less than 1500 a decade ago).
* Are there jobs = yes.
* Can employers afford to be more choosy and demand better qualifications = yes.
* Are there still dodgy hagwons = certainly yes.
* Do hagwons come and go faster than I change socks = yes. Low barriers to entry (just need money) and depending on the marketing skills of the owner a likelihood of failure within 5 years approaching 80%.
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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Private spending for English education overall is on the decline. It's a fact.
Public school jobs are being cut as well. That is also a fact.
| Quote: |
| Its spreading like wildfire, Gyeongsangnamdo is slashing all middle and high school jobs as of next month. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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| alongway wrote: |
If you need me to do the math for you, then you really need to spend less time on the forums and more time in grade 3 math class. |
A drop from 21.6 trillion won in 2009 to 19.0 trillion won in 2012 is a 12% reduction. (You forgot the 1.  )
Last edited by World Traveler on Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:56 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
Private spending for English education overall is on the decline. It's a fact.
Public school jobs are being cut as well. That is also a fact.
| Quote: |
| Its spreading like wildfire, Gyeongsangnamdo is slashing all middle and high school jobs as of next month. |
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Agreed... down 30% from its peak in 2008... but still more than triple what it was in 2003.
Is it in decline = yes.
Will it go away any time soon = no.
As a combination of salary and benefits it is still the best entry level EFL option on the planet (although rapidly being caught up to by China).
All of that said.... if anyone has been in EFL for more than a few years and is still hunting and pecking for entry level jobs it does make me wonder why... get some Pro-D going and move up to better options....
- Why stay in a "one-room" at 26 million krw per year when you could be living in a 3 bedroom apt and pulling in 50million krw?
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