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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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 Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, it does seem very plausible. (This topic probably belongs in the CE forum, though...) |
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Underwaterbob
Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Location: In Cognito
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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| My school apparently blocks wired.com... |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Underwaterbob wrote: |
| My school apparently blocks wired.com... |
There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.
We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.
Read more:
How the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet Could Have Been Hijacked
Inside the Nearly Impossible Task of Finding an Airplane in the Ocean
How It's Possible to Lose an Airplane in 2014
The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.
Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.
The loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire.
When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.
For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.
There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)
What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.
Ongoing speculation of a hijacking and/or murder-suicide and that there was a flight engineer on board does not sway me in favor of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.
We know there was a last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely normal. “Good night” is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control. The “good night” also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.
But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.
Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting.
As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even have been diving to extinguish flames.
But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario doesn’t make any good sense to me.
Regarding the additional flying time: On departing Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.
Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible.
The now known continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.
There is no point speculating further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. There is no doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijacking would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It probably would have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided where they were taking it.
Surprisingly, none of the reporters, officials, or other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint: If something went wrong, where would he go? Thanks to Google Earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times.
Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.
Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the time.
Chris Goodfellow has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine planes. His theory on what happened to MH370 first appeared on Google+. We’ve copyedited it with his permission.
1CORRECTION 9:40 a.m. Eastern 03/18/14: An editing error introduced a typo in Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s name. |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Rteacher wrote: |
| Yeah, it does seem very plausible. (This topic probably belongs in the CE forum, though...) |
Different breed of posters there. I like these guys much better. |
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guavashake
Joined: 09 Nov 2013
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:54 am Post subject: |
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Here's another analysis...
If it has crashed into the sea wreckage will be found - perhaps not in the next week, but eventually it will be found.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/22048613/could-mh370-have-been-swapped-mid-air/
Aircraft expert Ian Black previously worked as a fighter weapons instructor for the Malaysian Air Force, and is the author of two Haynes Manuals for aircraft, the McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom Manual and the RAF Tornado Manual. He flew the Tornado ADV in the first Gulf War and over Kosovo. He is now an A340 Airbus captain with Virgin Atlantic. |
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Old Painless
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:05 pm Post subject: |
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| 4 - 8 - 15 - 16 - 23 - 42 |
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hellofaniceguy
Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: On your computer screen!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| Alien spaceship....sucked it off the earth! |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:06 am Post subject: |
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Took 2 years to find Air France’s black box – so why are only 17 days left to find Flight 370′s?
I’ve been asking around as to why all the experts are saying that we only have 17 days to find the “black boxes” from missing Malaysia Airline Flight 370.
After all, they didn’t find the black boxes from Air France Flight 447, which went down in the Atlantic Ocean on a flight from Rio to Paris in 2009, for a good two years after the accident.
So why is it any different now? Why don’t they have two years to find Flight 370′s black boxes?
The answer is simple. They spotted the wreckage from the Air France flight within one day. So they knew where to look.
With Malaysia Airlines, we still don’t know where the plane even went down. And the longer it takes to find wreckage, the further away from the original crash site that wreckage will be, and thus the more difficult it will be to backtrack the original position of the crash, taking into account the currents and the time that has passed. If it goes on too long, we may not find where the plane went down
http://americablog.com/2014/03/took-2-years-find-air-frances-black-box-time-different.html |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| Quote: |
Took 2 years to find Air France’s black box – so why are only 17 days left to find Flight 370′s?
I’ve been asking around as to why all the experts are saying that we only have 17 days to find the “black boxes” from missing Malaysia Airline Flight 370.
After all, they didn’t find the black boxes from Air France Flight 447, which went down in the Atlantic Ocean on a flight from Rio to Paris in 2009, for a good two years after the accident.
So why is it any different now? Why don’t they have two years to find Flight 370′s black boxes?
The answer is simple. They spotted the wreckage from the Air France flight within one day. So they knew where to look.
With Malaysia Airlines, we still don’t know where the plane even went down. And the longer it takes to find wreckage, the further away from the original crash site that wreckage will be, and thus the more difficult it will be to backtrack the original position of the crash, taking into account the currents and the time that has passed. If it goes on too long, we may not find where the plane went down
http://americablog.com/2014/03/took-2-years-find-air-frances-black-box-time-different.html |
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The reason this one is different is because with the Air France flight, they knew approximately where to look. With this flight going off course, etc. they have no idea where it could be.
http://i.imgur.com/XXEQwXH.jpg |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:25 am Post subject: |
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| Its been confirmed that flight 370 did indeed go down in the southern Indian Ocean..... |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| Its been confirmed that flight 370 did indeed go down in the southern Indian Ocean..... |
In an area the size of Alaska ... |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:09 am Post subject: |
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The behaviour of the Chinese families has been reprehensible, I'm sorry to say.
My sympathies are with the Malaysian authorities for having to be called liars, murderers and even assaulted. They're doing their best!
I know its a highly charged time but...seems to be a mixture of victim mentality and nationalism among the Chinese with their whole blame game.
They've already launched a multi-million dollar lawsuit. How can you do that? Nobody is anywhere near establishing responsibility. |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, I saw that on the news. The American relatives are calm and sad, a little frustrated, but not over the top. Drama. |
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Stan Rogers
Joined: 20 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:59 am Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
The behaviour of the Chinese families has been reprehensible, I'm sorry to say.
My sympathies are with the Malaysian authorities for having to be called liars, murderers and even assaulted. They're doing their best!
I know its a highly charged time but...seems to be a mixture of victim mentality and nationalism among the Chinese with their whole blame game.
They've already launched a multi-million dollar lawsuit. How can you do that? Nobody is anywhere near establishing responsibility. |
I don't blame the Chinese families for being upset. There are governments who know where the plane is, they just won't say. I bet the NSA know where the plane is. I bet the Russians do too. These guys have spy satelites that saw every airplane in the sky that day. They just don't want to admit what their technology is really capeable of. |
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