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Joe2010
Joined: 07 Sep 2010
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:12 am Post subject: Donald Trump: Korean ramifications?? |
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Hey guys and gals,
I hope all of you are enjoying life in Korea as summer winds down and he enter the beautiful fall season.
Well, I survived MERS crisis. Believe it or not, I'm still alive and kicking! I've taken off the ski googles, n95 masks and enjoying life in Korea again!
But that's not what I wanna talk about today. I've been thinking a lot about the recent Donald Trump craze in America with everyone seemingly going gaga and googly eyed over a potential Trump presidency.
What happens IF he actually does win the election next year and more importantly, what ramifications will that have for Korea?? Now, i realize that the election is still 14 months away and anything could happen between now and then, so forgive me for spitballing here.
Here's my take. IF he does win, I believe Korea, along with China and Japan, could have serious problems and I do mean, SERIOUS!
If you watch any of his recent campaign speeches and tv interviews, (from YouTube), he seems to have a strong disdain for the East Asian countries, especially China and Japan, but Korea as well. He repeats several times during each speech how China and Japan are "stealing American jobs and stealing our money". He doesn't say "taking American jobs" mind you. He says "stealing" Not once, but several times during each speech. Wow, even Ross Perot never talked like that about Mexico! Trump definitely seems to steering his hatred toward China, Japan and Korea for whatever reason. He has strongly hinted at slapping a 25% across the board tariff on all Chinese, Korean and Japanese products entering the U.S. Also, he wants to immediately end the Free Trade Agreement between Korea and the U.S.
Again, I'm just spitballing here, but if he actually does goes through with these trade tariffs, it could have a devastating effect on the Korean economy for a long time. Obviously, Korea would probably retaliate with trade tariffs against
U.S. products, but it would certainly hurt Korea much more than it would hurt the U.S since Korea relies heavily on exports to the U.S, especially for electronics, steel, and automobiles. Of course, U.S. tariffs also would crush the Chinese and Japanese economies as well.
Secondly, he has also hinted in recent interviews at immediately pulling all U.S. military support from Korea AND Japan once he becomes the Commander in Chief. Never mind the fact that since the Korean war, the U.S. has always kept a close military alliance and a commitment to protect Korea starting from the Truman adminstration to Eisenhower to Kennedy to LBJ to Nixon to Carter to Reagan to Clinton to Bush and finally Obama. They've all kept that promise, both Democrat and Republican alike. But not Donald Trump! Donald Trump said in a recent interview that he would like to immediately end the military alliance, with Japan also, and keep the U.S. neutral from any entanglements in East Asia. "Let them defend themselves. We (the U.S.) shouldn't be involved in any way." he was recently quoted.
So, let's suppose Trump were to pull all U.S. troops and military assistance from Korea and Japan, would would North Korea do? Would that crazy frickin dictator in the North suddenly become embolden to launch a full scale attack against South Korea AND Japan?? (Remember, Kim Jung Un has repeatedly said he would attack Japan too). Maybe. Maybe not. If he knows that the U.S. would not assist S.Korea or Japan in any way militarily, he might start licking his chops. Sometimes, I think that the only thing holding Kim Jung Un back from launching an attack is that he absolutely positively does NOT want to face the U.S. military in any way, shape, or form, because he knows that doing so would mean total annihilation of his regime and his country within hours.
BUT, if Trump says to S.Korea and Japan, "hey, you're on your own now. We (the U.S) are not going to help you anymore," i would be more than a bit scared at what North Korea would be tempted to do. My gut tells me that the evil dictator would be chomping at the bit to do something terrible in order to prove something.
Again, I could be totally wrong on that. Just spitballing.
Well, that's it. AM I totally crazy to be fearing a possible Donald Trump presidency?? ! Given his recent anti-Asian rhetoric recently, I am definitely horrified at what effect his presidency would have, not only for S.Korea, but for the entire East Asian region. The U.S. has always been a strong ally of S.Korea and Japan. I don't think Trump feels the same way. Am I wrong???
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coralreefer_1
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:53 am Post subject: |
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My instinct tells me that what people not in office say to get elected,and what they do after they are elected are very very very very different.
Trump or anyone else can say whatever. They are trying to get elected and will play whatever they feel/polls show will help them. After that the real hands of power that many speculate and are never seen ....take hold, and they become a puppet.
Trump is no different. Its a long time away, and as much as I would like to see an outsider get a serious run (not necessarily Trump)...they will eventually succumb to the machine (and it is a machine) that is US politics.
No matter who is elected, if North Korea wanted to and felt it could, would have struck already. The fact they havent when the US was at its weakest bogged down in numerous wartime theaters says that N.K. knows its ass would be handed to it no matter how it moves. |
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Joe2010
Joined: 07 Sep 2010
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:20 am Post subject: |
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VERY Good Point and would normally agree with you with any other candidate.
But something about Trump tells me that he would actually follow through on his threats regarding tariffs and ending the military alliance with Korea and Japan. He seems to march to the beat of his own drum, and in this case, that drum would be a total frickin disaster, but nonetheless, he is his own boss.
No one and I mean no one tells Donald Trump what to do. Just listen to his frickin arrogance during his campaign speeches!
And again, I really think that he deep down has a strong disdain toward China and Japan (and maybe Korea too) that no U.S. president has ever had, at least not in my lifetime. (that is if he does indeed get elected). |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Trump changed his tune more times than Obama has changed his underwear.
I'm not saying what he will or won't do - but trusting his words is a futile practice.
Having said that, there is little doubt that Trump - if he were to be elected and if he were to act upon his words - would do very little to help what little stability there is in this world.
Then again, if Americans elect a guy that looks and talks like a clown - I imagine they'll deserve everything that they will get. This is like G. BushX10 on the funny and absolutely insane scale.
Having said that - if Democrats really do go with Hilary Clinton - who seems to feel the need to prove her masculinity via military rhetoric (and probably military actions after the elections) - it seems like the world will enter the next dark age regardless of who gets elected.
It's funny, because seriously - the world right now is in a very fragile state. Remove some stability in Asia and chaos emerges - China will no doubt come out on top - and when it does, we'll have US/China cold war (it's funny that Trump keeps saying how he'll be best friends with Putin - while it's obviously that Putin is likely to side with China).
If Clinton sends US military to Ukraine and places even more pressure on Russia - then we'll have a proper Cold war, which may turn into something much warmer over time. |
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Fallacy
Joined: 29 Jun 2015 Location: ex-ROK
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: Donald Trump: Korean ramifications?? |
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Joe2010 wrote: |
it could have a devastating effect on the Korean economy for a long time. |
I agree with the potential for a negative effect, but "devastating" is hyperbole. Exports from USA to ROK represent roughly 2% of total global trade for USA, and 10% for the reverse, so "it would certainly hurt Korea much more than it would hurt the US." What would be devastating would be retaliation from China, which represents roughly 40% of combined export and import trade for the ROK. To use Trump's pronunciation here, that would be "huge." Catastrophic. The proportion of ROK trade with China is even larger than the combined trade with EU, Japan, and the US together, so extinction event could describe a scenario where Trump was vying for leadership of China.
As for hints that Trump would immediately start "pulling all U.S. military support from Korea AND Japan once he becomes the Commander in Chief," forget that. The US industrial-military complex will over-ride any action by the executive. The production and placement of hardware will continue unabated. To that end, the continued perception of war with DPRK might be desirable, so pulling pieces from the peninsula might be tactically acceptable, but Japan is a different matter. Look forward to the JSDF muscling up their posture and the US standing right behind them irregardless of Trump's ascent. Trump is a businessman, so while he might say openly to the ROK and Japan, "hey, you're on your own now. We (the U.S) are not going to help you anymore," behind the scenes he would likely be negotiating higher payment for continued support. Follow the money. |
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malaz
Joined: 06 Jan 2013
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Fallacy
Joined: 29 Jun 2015 Location: ex-ROK
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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Exactly. Trump summarizes everything in one word: China. |
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Zyzyfer
Joined: 29 Jan 2003 Location: who, what, where, when, why, how?
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: Donald Trump: Korean ramifications?? |
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Joe2010 wrote: |
He doesn't say "taking American jobs" mind you. |
He also doesn't say "we've been outsourcing our manufacturing jobs to these countries".
Trump's a blowhard. I doubt he could affect actual policy all that much, but the political gaffes with him as president would be the stuff of nightmares. |
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Underwaterbob
Joined: 08 Jan 2005 Location: In Cognito
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Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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He does realize that the massive number of imports from east Asia are often enough stuff that was outsourced there from the US to begin with? "Fender" guitars. "Apple" iPhones. "Nike" sneakers. Almost every brand of clothing... Quite likely, huge tariffs would hurt the USA as much as China. |
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Joe2010
Joined: 07 Sep 2010
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Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:18 am Post subject: |
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To FALLACY:
Great point and very well stated.
Yet, I'm still deeply concerned about his recent rhetoric toward East Asia. I got a feeling that if he becomes president, he is going to have an extremely combative hostile ' in your face' style of diplomacy toward China, Japan and Korea.
That's just his personality. He has an extremely short fuse and his diplomatic approach toward East Asia will be
"my way or the highway" multiplied by 1000. That's the way has always been and always will be. And if you don't believe me, just look at the way he treats anybody who criticizes him. He starts hurling insults nonstop toward him/her.
So if he gets elected, holy shit, he's gonna be in your face hostile bully toward any world leader who disagrees with him.
That's what worries me. |
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Brooks
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
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Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:10 am Post subject: |
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I do not think so.
His bark is worse than his bite.
He wants to talk tough before the Iowa caucus.
Of course trade is important to the US; he knows that.
He met that top Indonesian government official, who is in charge of their parliament. Trump is about doing business.
The USA is the biggest game in town, with the biggest economy. Just because the president changes and talks tough does not mean that deals are not going to get done behind the scenes.
People have to deal with the US president regardless if he is a hawk or dove.
He is from New York, so he shoots from the hip.
He focuses on illegal immigation; that is why he is getting attention.
Americans are mostly fed up with it. 59% say so in the polls.
Too many Americans are unemployed. Blacks are twice as likely to be unemployed; that is a crime.
I prefer any unemployed black man to work than an illegal alien.
I am in Phoenix. I go to a McDonalds. A black man is begging outside.
I am in New York. By the station at 42 Street a black man is shouting "I am homeless, I am hungry, and I am in need of a little help today."
It is like this: a black man and a white man are waiting in line. An illegal alien jumps in front and say he will work for less than the minimum wage and he gets the job. WTF the black and white man say.
I go to Newark airport. I just want to order a bagel. The woman behind the counter does not understand English well.
No American wants to do this job? Really? After what went down in 2008?
I am at O'Hare airport. A woman with a hijab and I assume to be from south Asia is working at the bookstore. Really, no American can do this job?
Cruz did it. He gave up his Canadian citizenship. Would Jorge Ramos do it? I doubt it. He can vote in Mexico too.
People who are not professional politicians are getting attention, like Carson. People are sick of the status quo with those like Jeb Bush or Hillary. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:59 am Post subject: |
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I think you might be better off just moving to the wilderness where nobody can get to you.
Wearing ski goggles because of MERS? Taking what Donald Trump says seriously? NK is going to willy-nilly attack South Korea and Japan without the US?
Trump or no, the sky isn't going to fall. It's not as simple and easy as that. The world has survived bad leaders, mad leaders, and doltish electorates before now, and will do again.
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hogwonguy1979
Joined: 22 Dec 2003 Location: the racoon den
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Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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why waste time and bandwidth on such a ridiculous proposition. Odds are better the north nukes Seoul than Trump being elected president, he'll be old news by March at the latest |
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Neil
Joined: 02 Jan 2004 Location: Tokyo
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Posted: Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:57 pm Post subject: |
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Brooks wrote: |
I do not think so.
His bark is worse than his bite.
He wants to talk tough before the Iowa caucus.
Of course trade is important to the US; he knows that.
He met that top Indonesian government official, who is in charge of their parliament. Trump is about doing business.
The USA is the biggest game in town, with the biggest economy. Just because the president changes and talks tough does not mean that deals are not going to get done behind the scenes.
People have to deal with the US president regardless if he is a hawk or dove.
He is from New York, so he shoots from the hip.
He focuses on illegal immigation; that is why he is getting attention.
Americans are mostly fed up with it. 59% say so in the polls.
Too many Americans are unemployed. Blacks are twice as likely to be unemployed; that is a crime.
I prefer any unemployed black man to work than an illegal alien.
I am in Phoenix. I go to a McDonalds. A black man is begging outside.
I am in New York. By the station at 42 Street a black man is shouting "I am homeless, I am hungry, and I am in need of a little help today."
It is like this: a black man and a white man are waiting in line. An illegal alien jumps in front and say he will work for less than the minimum wage and he gets the job. WTF the black and white man say.
I go to Newark airport. I just want to order a bagel. The woman behind the counter does not understand English well.
No American wants to do this job? Really? After what went down in 2008?
I am at O'Hare airport. A woman with a hijab and I assume to be from south Asia is working at the bookstore. Really, no American can do this job?
Cruz did it. He gave up his Canadian citizenship. Would Jorge Ramos do it? I doubt it. He can vote in Mexico too.
People who are not professional politicians are getting attention, like Carson. People are sick of the status quo with those like Jeb Bush or Hillary. |
Foreigns in jobs? And some wearing funny clothes!!
Sounds like you need to 'lose the racism and complete the transaction'. |
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Brooks
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
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Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:38 am Post subject: |
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Racist? No.
I prefer Americans of any color to get a job than those
who are illegal. That is what I meant.
The economy is not so good and the US cannot afford to be so generous and turn a blind eye.
Always in US history blacks have had to compete with immigrants for jobs.
I guess if I say "anchor baby" or illegal alien that makes me racist? Too much PC BS.
I guess black lives do not matter, with your line of reasoning.
You should learn to read. |
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