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| How will the DJT Presidency be regarded? |
| Greatened America |
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38% |
[ 14 ] |
| Bankrupted America |
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33% |
[ 12 ] |
| Entertained America |
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8% |
[ 3 ] |
| Enraged America |
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19% |
[ 7 ] |
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| Total Votes : 36 |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Respect for Titus. Nailed it. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| Titus2 wrote: |
No new jewish wars in the Middle East.
Better relations with Russia.
Executive action on getting the illegals out.
No TPP / TTIP.
Pretty good stuff. A dream. |
So far Titus has correctly called both the Republican Primary and the broader election, insisting both that Mr. Trump would be nominated and that he would win. I myself have to admit I was skeptical on both accounts when we had discussed the matter back during the primaries in a now-deleted thread, but I said at that time I'd keep an open mind regarding the matter and see how Titus' predictions would turn out, and it's clear he had his fingers firmly on the pulse on a pretty large demographic. The only question which remains, then, is whether his third and most ambitious prediction regarding how Mr. Trump would govern turns out to be accurate.
More supply-side economics disasters in American domestic policy are nothing about which to be happy, but if America's foreign policy truly does pivot away from wars of aggression and towards some degree of reconciliation with Russia, that would be positive. Drawing back free trade in favor of domestic industry would also be a big victory for common American workers. Personally speaking, I hope Titus was correct in those assessments, but in any case, now we'll get a chance to confirm. |
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The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Fox wrote: |
| Titus2 wrote: |
No new jewish wars in the Middle East.
Better relations with Russia.
Executive action on getting the illegals out.
No TPP / TTIP.
Pretty good stuff. A dream. |
So far Titus has correctly called both the Republican Primary and the broader election, insisting both that Mr. Trump would be nominated and that he would win. I myself have to admit I was skeptical on both accounts when we had discussed the matter back during the primaries in a now-deleted thread, but I said at that time I'd keep an open mind regarding the matter and see how Titus' predictions would turn out, and it's clear he had his fingers firmly on the pulse on a pretty large demographic. The only question which remains, then, is whether his third and most ambitious prediction regarding how Mr. Trump would govern turns out to be accurate.
More supply-side economics disasters in American domestic policy are nothing about which to be happy, but if America's foreign policy truly does pivot away from wars of aggression and towards some degree of reconciliation with Russia, that would be positive. Drawing back free trade in favor of domestic industry would also be a big victory for common American workers. Personally speaking, I hope Titus was correct in those assessments, but in any case, now we'll get a chance to confirm. |
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The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
Yeah, when I saw the name John Bolton I groaned. Senator Corker's name also came up, but I am not familiar with him beyond the very basics.
Anyway, Titus did nail it. Hopefully the no new wars in the ME is accurate too. The No TPP most certainly is... |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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Halting further trade treaties may be prudent and warranted. Undoing existing treaties, particularly a twenty-year old one like NAFTA, is another thing entirely.
Domestically, Trump better tackle the power of Big Finance and also Silicon Valley. Its his best chance at a positive legacy, and I believe if you look at a Bernie + Trump broad coalition, his limited mandate (lost popular vote) could encompass such a project. |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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Having John Bolton as his top foreign policy advisor is indeed a worrying sign.
However, his close relationship with Russia might offset any aggressive actions towards Iran. With Iran being an ally I'm sure Putin wouldn't want the US to declare war against the country, something that Bolton and the other neo-cons have been striving for.
Middle East is a real wild card under the Trump Presidency. Unlike his domestic policy I really don't know what to expect. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
Well, yes, I've also already mentioned (again, probably in deleted threads) that I suspect a Donald Trump victory would incline more towards the status quo than his early supporters seemed to feel, since ultimately the status quo was crafted by actors serving donors exactly like Mr. Trump, and it's extremely difficult for me to believe that an individual who is willing to essentially defraud people to make money would not be vulnerable to the sort of corruption that leads politicians to support policies which are destructive in the long term, but I'm definitely going to keep an open mind about it. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
Well, yes, I've also already mentioned (again, probably in deleted threads) that I suspect a Donald Trump victory would incline more towards the status quo than his early supporters seemed to feel, since ultimately the status quo was crafted by actors serving donors exactly like Mr. Trump, and it's extremely difficult for me to believe that an individual who is willing to essentially defraud people to make money would not be vulnerable to the sort of corruption that leads politicians to support policies which are destructive in the long term, but I'm definitely going to keep an open mind about it. |
His transition team called my boss, and the boss of a friend, to see if they would be interested in being in the administration. All the old networks are being activated, same as they would for any Republican. I guess this is what Kuros would call the deep state. I know for a fact that Bolton is swamped by calls and emails from people trying to get in. If his advisors get much of a say then we will get the same status quo. If he goes on gut feeling we might avoid the traditional stupidity, but who know what kind of unique disaster/stupidity Trump's making it up as he goes could cause.
My guess is he will be a traditional republican with weird quirks, and that Paul Ryan will actually be the most powerful person. But really who knows. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Fox wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
Well, yes, I've also already mentioned (again, probably in deleted threads) that I suspect a Donald Trump victory would incline more towards the status quo than his early supporters seemed to feel, since ultimately the status quo was crafted by actors serving donors exactly like Mr. Trump, and it's extremely difficult for me to believe that an individual who is willing to essentially defraud people to make money would not be vulnerable to the sort of corruption that leads politicians to support policies which are destructive in the long term, but I'm definitely going to keep an open mind about it. |
His transition team called my boss, and the boss of a friend, to see if they would be interested in being in the administration. All the old networks are being activated, same as they would for any Republican. I guess this is what Kuros would call the deep state. I know for a fact that Bolton is swamped by calls and emails from people trying to get in. If his advisors get much of a say then we will get the same status quo. If he goes on gut feeling we might avoid the traditional stupidity, but who know what kind of unique disaster/stupidity Trump's making it up as he goes could cause.
My guess is he will be a traditional republican with weird quirks, and that Paul Ryan will actually be the most powerful person. But really who knows. |
I doubt Paul Ryan will be the most powerful person. He's going to become an outcast in his own party. If Bannon becomes Trump's chief of staff, Ryan most definitely is screwed. Trump doesn't care about policies, but he cares about winning. He's not going to touch entitlements.
Mitch McConnell, though... He's kinda the GOP version of Harry Reid. I have a hunch Trump and him will get along quite fine...
edit: fixed Mitch's name.
Last edited by bucheon bum on Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Lots of blame flying around now! Not going to revisit blame against Clinton, her camp, or her clan since we had a whole period for that already (aka the primary). I have not heard anyone blame Mark Cuban. It might behoove Trump to look into his tax situation, though. I've heard things . . . |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:20 pm Post subject: |
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This election was a real victory for the 13 Keys Model. America is barely a part of my life at this point, I don't really use social media, and I don't watch television, so what the media was saying about the race was more or less my only source of real information about it, but when I saw Mr. Lichtman point out that his 13 Keys predicted a Donald Trump victory, I immediately and strongly suspected the media had gotten it wrong, and moreover, probably wrong on purpose. Not with certitude, mind you, because Mr. Trump was such an atypical candidate (at least within the scope of 1984 to the present), but strongly, and it turns out it was correct.
Lichtmann declared his results based on Gary Johnson being the deal breaking key, predicting that he would get over 5% of the vote, which he did not. But, he also (and this is bizarre in my opinion) did not invoke the "scandal" key. This is presumably because he has it written as a scandal regarding the incumbent President, but Mrs. Clinton's own scandals were related in strong part to her role in the sitting President's administration, and they clearly impacted how people thought about her and her party. If we take the scandal key rather than the independent candidate key as the "decisive" key, and instead substitute Bernie Sanders for Hillary Clinton as the candidate, then the scandal key disappears: Mr. Sanders is not plagued by scandals, and Clinton's issues would not reflect anywhere near as much upon her party had the party not intentionally chosen her as its standard bearer.
The fact that Bernie Sanders also played strongly among precisely the voters who could have carried Clinton to victory is probably not irrelevant, but the 13 Keys Model doesn't seem to concern itself with such specifics. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:58 am Post subject: |
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| I suspect that the media depressed her turnout but increased his through the narrative that she had it in the bag. Why go vote for her if she is going to win easily. Also, the electoral college makes things weird. Hard to see Trump or the republicans having true popular mandate when the majority of the people didn't vote for them. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:32 am Post subject: |
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DNC Chair will be a Muslim; Ellison has Schumer's, Warren's, and Sanders's backing.
US will pay for the wall: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-wall-congress-funds-louie-gohmert-231230
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| Fox wrote: |
This election was a real victory for the 13 Keys Model. America is barely a part of my life at this point, I don't really use social media, and I don't watch television, so what the media was saying about the race was more or less my only source of real information about it, but when I saw Mr. Lichtman point out that his 13 Keys predicted a Donald Trump victory, I immediately and strongly suspected the media had gotten it wrong, and moreover, probably wrong on purpose. Not with certitude, mind you, because Mr. Trump was such an atypical candidate (at least within the scope of 1984 to the present), but strongly, and it turns out it was correct.
Lichtmann declared his results based on Gary Johnson being the deal breaking key, predicting that he would get over 5% of the vote, which he did not. But, he also (and this is bizarre in my opinion) did not invoke the "scandal" key. This is presumably because he has it written as a scandal regarding the incumbent President, but Mrs. Clinton's own scandals were related in strong part to her role in the sitting President's administration, and they clearly impacted how people thought about her and her party. If we take the scandal key rather than the independent candidate key as the "decisive" key, and instead substitute Bernie Sanders for Hillary Clinton as the candidate, then the scandal key disappears: Mr. Sanders is not plagued by scandals, and Clinton's issues would not reflect anywhere near as much upon her party had the party not intentionally chosen her as its standard bearer.
The fact that Bernie Sanders also played strongly among precisely the voters who could have carried Clinton to victory is probably not irrelevant, but the 13 Keys Model doesn't seem to concern itself with such specifics. |
Lichtmann makes another prediction: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ |
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goat
Joined: 23 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:24 am Post subject: |
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| goat wrote: |
| If Donald T becomes the POTUS, he is going to be the greatest leader the world has ever known. I'm being sincere. |
You heard it here first, folks!
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Fox wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
The thing to watch is who his advisers are and how much sway they have. From what I've seen they look pretty standard issue GOP/neo-con types like John Bolton. Plus all his bluster about ISIS. Hope Titus is correct about no more Middle East wars, but deeply skeptical. |
Well, yes, I've also already mentioned (again, probably in deleted threads) that I suspect a Donald Trump victory would incline more towards the status quo than his early supporters seemed to feel, since ultimately the status quo was crafted by actors serving donors exactly like Mr. Trump, and it's extremely difficult for me to believe that an individual who is willing to essentially defraud people to make money would not be vulnerable to the sort of corruption that leads politicians to support policies which are destructive in the long term, but I'm definitely going to keep an open mind about it. |
His transition team called my boss, and the boss of a friend, to see if they would be interested in being in the administration. All the old networks are being activated, same as they would for any Republican. I guess this is what Kuros would call the deep state. I know for a fact that Bolton is swamped by calls and emails from people trying to get in. If his advisors get much of a say then we will get the same status quo. If he goes on gut feeling we might avoid the traditional stupidity, but who know what kind of unique disaster/stupidity Trump's making it up as he goes could cause.
My guess is he will be a traditional republican with weird quirks, and that Paul Ryan will actually be the most powerful person. But really who knows. |
Neither one is named Eliot Cohen is he? 
Anyway, I'm just hoping the Trump team remains this inept at appointing people. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Anyway, I'm just hoping the Trump team remains this inept at appointing people. |
#DonaldJRforHUD |
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