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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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 Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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| matesol wrote: |
I know an American in Korea who has a Ph.D. in North Korea studies. He said if he were Kim,Jong Il, he would "accidentally" have a non nuclear bomb go off and hit one of the Army bases. That probably would break the alliance between S. Korea and the US. The South Koreans wouldn't want to retaliate if only those dirty rotten Americans died and George Bush would be about ready to have a coniption. If the US left because South Korea wouldn't retaliate or impose sanctions, then North Korea could really play the "Give me Food, I've got nukes" card. Of course it's all speculation.
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Ph/D's are not immune from babbling nonsense, and this proves it. Do you really think that George Bush would simply tuck his tail between his legs if something like that happened? Far more likely the public outcry from Americans would give him the perfect pretext to blast North Korea back to the stone age. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Ph/D's are not immune from babbling nonsense, |
Hmmm...let's see. Who should I listen to in a discussion about North Korea? On the one hand we have a guy with a Ph.D in North Korean studies. OK. Maybe. On the other hand we have a guy with a BA in Interior Decorating from Podunk U.
Scratching my chin and pondering the weighty decision. This is a tough call. I'll get back to you. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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| A kinder and gentler The Urban Myth. |
Good luck with your New Year's resolution. If you fall off, just get right back on and try again. |
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matesol
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:43 pm Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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| Quote: |
| Ph/D's are not immune from babbling nonsense, and this proves it. Do you really think that George Bush would simply tuck his tail between his legs if something like that happened? Far more likely the public outcry from Americans would give him the perfect pretext to blast North Korea back to the stone age. |
I never said that Bush would tuck his tail between his legs and run. I said the alliance would probably be broken. Given Bush's attitude toward Iraq, a broken alliance doesn't necessarily mean that the US wouldn't attack. I do think, however, that if he did attack North Korea in response a few thousand Americans having been killed, it would be much costlier in a political sense (in terms of Asian countries attitude toward the US) than if North Korea had just killed a lot of South Koreans. If KJI kills a lot of South Koreans, then South Korea will be behind the US. If KJI only kills Americans on a US army base, I think it is reasonable to say that support for attacking North Korea would be somewhat less. |
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matesol
Joined: 23 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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Interesting - my friend who's an analyst also thinks that if the Norks are going to pick a fight, it will most likely be one aimed exclusively at the US that leaves the South (and maybe Japan as well) in a tight spot, not wanting to take any immediate action. He also sees a collapsing Nork regime as an extremely scary scenario. |
Enlighten me. What is meant by scary? Economically as scores of refugees stream accross the border or would KJI nuke everyone, willing to take everyone with him if he thinks he is ultimately going to die?
The reason I ask is that another thing my American colleague mentioned is that he doesn't think North Korea can go on much longer. The reason is that, according to the refugees he has met (he has met quite a few), most North Korean children are only going to school two or three days a week now, as they scrounge for food the rest of the time. That isn't very good for the "indoctrination". Thus the ordinary North Korean is less loyal than they used to be. Also, China is starting to look more and more like South Korea, nice cars, apartments, etc. He says that when you study the history of revolutions, people don't revolt when they hit rock bottom, they revolt when they see they can do better and North Koreans are seeing that in China. Finally, he also said that the border between North Korea and China is actually pretty porous. North Koreans are getting cell phones that can be used along the North Korean border as they are still within range of China. People are becoming more and more aware of what the "outside world" is like. North Korea just can't go on forever.
Whatevery happens, it will be interesting to watch it from a historical/current events point of view. |
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Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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| matesol wrote: |
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Interesting - my friend who's an analyst also thinks that if the Norks are going to pick a fight, it will most likely be one aimed exclusively at the US that leaves the South (and maybe Japan as well) in a tight spot, not wanting to take any immediate action. He also sees a collapsing Nork regime as an extremely scary scenario. |
Enlighten me. What is meant by scary? Economically as scores of refugees stream accross the border or would KJI nuke everyone, willing to take everyone with him if he thinks he is ultimately going to die?
The reason I ask is that another thing my American colleague mentioned is that he doesn't think North Korea can go on much longer. The reason is that, according to the refugees he has met (he has met quite a few), most North Korean children are only going to school two or three days a week now, as they scrounge for food the rest of the time. That isn't very good for the "indoctrination". Thus the ordinary North Korean is less loyal than they used to be. Also, China is starting to look more and more like South Korea, nice cars, apartments, etc. He says that when you study the history of revolutions, people don't revolt when they hit rock bottom, they revolt when they see they can do better and North Koreans are seeing that in China. Finally, he also said that the border between North Korea and China is actually pretty porous. North Koreans are getting cell phones that can be used along the North Korean border as they are still within range of China. People are becoming more and more aware of what the "outside world" is like. North Korea just can't go on forever.
Whatevery happens, it will be interesting to watch it from a historical/current events point of view. |
By 'scary' he means that if the regime is falling, it might look to military confrontation - preferably with the US - as a desperate way to unify the North, or simply to try to get the cards to fall some other way. |
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rok_the-boat
Joined: 24 Jan 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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| matesol wrote: |
I know an American in Korea who has a Ph.D. in North Korea studies. He said if he were Kim,Jong Il, he would "accidentally" have a non nuclear bomb go off and hit one of the Army bases. That probably would break the alliance between S. Korea and the US. The South Koreans wouldn't want to retaliate if only those dirty rotten Americans died and George Bush would be about ready to have a coniption. If the US left because South Korea wouldn't retaliate or impose sanctions, then North Korea could really play the "Give me Food, I've got nukes" card. Of course it's all speculation.
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What an idiot. And where did he get his Ph.D from I wonder? The Kim Il-sung university of disinformation I'll bet. |
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Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:18 am Post subject: Re: Strike a US Army Base |
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| rok_the-boat wrote: |
| matesol wrote: |
I know an American in Korea who has a Ph.D. in North Korea studies. He said if he were Kim,Jong Il, he would "accidentally" have a non nuclear bomb go off and hit one of the Army bases. That probably would break the alliance between S. Korea and the US. The South Koreans wouldn't want to retaliate if only those dirty rotten Americans died and George Bush would be about ready to have a coniption. If the US left because South Korea wouldn't retaliate or impose sanctions, then North Korea could really play the "Give me Food, I've got nukes" card. Of course it's all speculation.
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What an idiot. And where did he get his Ph.D from I wonder? The Kim Il-sung university of disinformation I'll bet. |
I don't think it's such an implausibility that KJL would try something like this to rally support around himself and cause a rift between the ROK and US if he thought he was on his way out and had nothing to lose. |
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ulsanchris
Joined: 19 Jun 2003
Location: take a wild guess
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:27 am Post subject: |
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| Even if the North wanted to accidentally send a missle into a US base, do they even have a missile that is accurate enough to do that. I heard from somewhere that a north korean missile wouldn't be able to hit the broad side of a barn. |
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matthewwoodford
Joined: 01 Oct 2003
Location: Location, location, location.
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:47 am Post subject: |
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| Dan wrote: |
The South can't stop caring about the North. Most older South Koreans still wonder what happened to family they had up there.
You have to appreciate that before wondering about the validity of the Sunshine policy.
For us, North Korea is the guy with the messed up hair, but to many Koreans, it's part of an extended family. |
Of course, for Koreans it's the other half of their country. This really isn't hard to understand. |
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thebum
Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Location: North Korea
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:29 am Post subject: |
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| Yu_Bum_suk wrote: |
I was having a chat on Sunday about this with someone far better in know than I am. He proffered a couple of chilling posibilities.
One is that the Nork regime starts to crumble and they launch a war as a last ditch attempt to have the cards fall some other way. He suspected that in this scenario the Norks would use what nukes they have on US military bases but would not be adverse to using heavy artillery on Seoul (a barage that could only last 15-20 minutes) including chemical / biological weapons.
Another is that they just declare war on the US, ignoring ambitions on Korea temporarily. They would send ultimada to Japan and SK demanding that they expel US forces or they nuke the bases, and then see where the chips fall.
In any event, it looks like a collapsing Nork regime could be quite some cause for alarm. |
Why would they declare war on someone they're already at war with? |
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Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:01 am Post subject: ... |
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Whether someone has a PHD or not seems a bit irrelevant.
How exactly would KJI hit an American base "by accident" with a nuclear weapon without killing thousands of Koreans?
If Saddam had hit anyone with a nuke he would have been vaporized.
I can't imagine him saying he "accidentally" hit an American military base.
"Hey guys, I accidentally nuked Yongsan". That would not result in diplomacy. The South Koreans might slap together the nuclear program they don't have and accidentally nuke Pyongyang, or the US might misfire any number of its huge nuclear arsenal randomly targeted on the North.
An accidental nuclear strike is a joke. Kind of like Dr. Strangelove, but my life hangs in the balance.
The North Korean people are not our enemy.
Feed them. Give them more. |
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thebum
Joined: 09 Jan 2005
Location: North Korea
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:04 am Post subject: Re: ... |
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| Nowhere Man wrote: |
...
Feed them. Give them more. |
Exactly. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:41 am Post subject: |
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Whether someone has a PHD or not seems a bit irrelevant.
How exactly would KJI hit an American base "by accident" with a nuclear weapon without killing thousands of Koreans?
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And another thing:
Let's assume for the sake of argument that NK was able to hit an American base without killing Koreans. It would STILL be an attack on South Korean territory, end of story. If the South just throws up its arms and says "oh well, who cares they're only Americans", they're sending a message to the word that SK is a country that doesn't retaliate when you fire missles at it. I think at the VERY LEAST the Minister of Defense would explain this to his cabinet colleagues. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:29 pm Post subject: Re: Feed your enemy while he prepares nuclear bombs to kill |
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| Back during the cold war the Soviet Union got loads of food aid from America. |
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