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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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 Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:54 am Post subject: Levees Won't Hold if Hurricane Rita hits NOLA |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a0e.4lEPse.U&refer=us
Rita Becomes Hurricane as It Heads for Gulf of Mexico (Update1)
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Rita strengthened into a hurricane as it headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to hit the coasts of Texas and Louisiana by this weekend.
Rita is forecast to pass the lower Florida Keys by midday and head into the warm waters of the Gulf, the National Hurricane Center said. It will gain power as it moves over the warm water, and will be a so-called Category 3 storm with winds of at least 111 mph when it reaches the Texas coastline by the weekend, center meteorologist Chris Sisko said.
While Rita is forecast to hit anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston, there is a chance it may veer to the east and strike Louisiana's coast, Sisko said. This threat to the coastal region already devastated by Hurricane Katrina prompted New Orleans's mayor to suspend plans for residents to reenter the city and officials in Texas to call for a voluntary evacuation.
``The greatest chance, in terms of computer models, is for Rita to hit Texas, but Louisiana is also indicated by a few models,'' Sisko said today in an interview.
Rita was located about 100 miles (161 kilometers) east- southeast of Key West, Florida, as of 8 a.m. local time, the hurricane center said. The storm is moving west about 15 mph and may dump as much as 12 inches of rain on the Keys.
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin yesterday suspended plans to allow residents to return to their homes and businesses because of the risk posed by Rita. The Louisiana city, once home to a half a million people, was flooded after Hurricane Katrina's storm surge overwhelmed the system of levees and pumps that held back the waters of Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River.
Levees Won't Hold
New Orleans's levees are weak and can't handle more than inches or a 3-foot storm surge, Nagin said yesterday during a televised press conference.
Officials in Galveston called for a voluntary evacuation starting at 2 p.m. today from the island of 60,000 people.
The current path puts the storm on course to threaten Texas's oil facilities, prompting Royal Dutch Shell Plc and other oil companies to pull workers from rigs near the two states. The rigs account for 44 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
Corpus Christi, which is about 125 miles from the border with Mexico, is home to two refineries operated by San Antonio- based Valero Energy Corp. and one each by Citgo Petroleum Corp. and Koch Industries Inc.
Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, three of the world's four largest oil companies, are among producers and drillers evacuating offshore workers ahead of Rita.
Oil Falls
Crude oil fell from a two-week high today in New York as forecasts showed Rita may veer more to the south that originally forecast, away from main refining and production areas in Texas and Louisiana.
Hurricanes are measured on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph. A Category 3 storm has winds of at least 111 mph, while Category 4 hurricanes have winds of 131 mph.
About 30 percent of U.S. oil production comes from platforms in the Gulf. The region accounts for 24 percent of U.S. gas output.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Heather Burke in New York at [email protected].
Last Updated: September 20, 2005 10:24 EDT |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:42 am Post subject: |
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Experts say Louisiana levees should have held
Post Wed Sep 21,12:51 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane experts said Hurricane Katrina's storm surges were smaller than authorities have suggested and that poor design, faulty construction or a combination of the two were to blame for the failure of New Orleans' flood-protection system, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.
Scientists and engineers at Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center -- with the help of computer models and visual evidence -- concluded the levee system should have been sufficient to keep most of the city dry.
They also said Katrina's storm surges did not come close to going over the floodwalls, contradicting statements from the Army Corps of Engineers, which has said the surges sent water from Lake Pontchartrain over the top of the concrete walls.
"This should not have been a big deal for these floodwalls," said oceanographer G. Paul Kemp, a hurricane expert who runs LSU's Natural Systems Modeling Laboratory. "It should have been a modest challenge. There's no way this should have exceeded the capacity."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050921/us_nm/katrina_levees_dc;_ylt=AmZck6vgqjvGh2U2KrzCS9oDW7oF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl |
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desultude
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:24 am Post subject: |
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New Orleans is on the northeast side of the storm, no matter if it doesn't hit directly (unlikely) it will be affected. It is going to get a storm surge- when it hit the Florida Keys, Hollywood- a long ways north of the Keys and north of Miami, got a storm surge. I am afraid that there will be problems in New Orleans with flooding.
The best news about this monster storm is that it is moving very quickly, which limits the amount of rain that will fall, and the amount of time any area will get pounded.
I wonder if any of Bush's aids have had the courage to try to explain to him about the relationship between global warming and super hurricanes. maybe if Rita wastes a good deal of Texas real estate, he might start to get the point. |
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Gord
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| desultude wrote: |
| I wonder if any of Bush's aids have had the courage to try to explain to him about the relationship between global warming and super hurricanes. maybe if Rita wastes a good deal of Texas real estate, he might start to get the point. |
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9410439
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Explaining the rise in hurricane activity
Sept. 20: NOAA Meteorologist Stanley Goldenberg explains why there have been so many hurricanes in recent years.
With Hurricane Rita marking the ninth named Hurricane of the season and the number of category four and five hurricanes worldwide nearly doubling in the last 35 years, many are wondering about the reasons behind the increased storm activity.
According to Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is no specific reason.
"What people have to realize is that we're in a part of an active long-term cycle in hurricane activity. What happens in the Atlantic is that you have several decades of below normal activity, and then you have several decades of above normal activity," he said.
"This is a cycle we can trace back hundreds of years. Since 1995, we've been in this higher cycle of activity," Goldenberg said.
Goldenberg said that while a warmer Atlantic Ocean contributes to the additional hurricane activity, global warming isn't to blame.
"The main environmental factor is a change in ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. We're not talking about long term global warming, we're talking about a cycle that goes up and down -- a little bit warmer for a few decades and a little bit cooler for a few decades. That's really what we're seeing," he said.
Where we are currently in that cycle, according to Goldenberg, does not bode well for the Gulf and Atlantic coast states.
"We do not expect this to switch back soon. We might be in another decade or several more decades of above average activity," he said.
The only thing people can do, Goldenberg noted, is be ready for anything.
"People really need to accept and face reality with this," he said. "I hope that Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita forces emergency mangers, government officials and private individuals to reexamine their hurricane preparedness efforts.
"People need to prepare for the worst, because it can happen," he said. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:03 am Post subject: |
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| desultude wrote: |
| I wonder if any of Bush's aids have had the courage to try to explain to him about the relationship between global warming and super hurricanes. maybe if Rita wastes a good deal of Texas real estate, he might start to get the point. |
Perhaps if there is scientific data that can conclusively decide (or even raise strong evidence that points towards) that the recent ferocity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is due in part to global warming, then perhaps Bush's aides could debate about whether to bring it up. Otherwise, these kinds of cracks by German scientists and internet posters alike have all the force of a superficial Hollywood block-buster (I can't actually remember if The Day After Tomorrow did very well). |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:06 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| desultude wrote: |
| I wonder if any of Bush's aids have had the courage to try to explain to him about the relationship between global warming and super hurricanes. maybe if Rita wastes a good deal of Texas real estate, he might start to get the point. |
Perhaps if there is scientific data that can conclusively decide (or even raise strong evidence that points towards) that the recent ferocity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is due in part to global warming, then perhaps Bush's aides could debate about whether to bring it up. Otherwise, these kinds of cracks by German scientists and internet posters alike have all the force of a superficial Hollywood block-buster (I can't actually remember if The Day After Tomorrow did very well). |
I imagine the subject is tantamount to heresy in or around the Oval Office. With or without the data, it probably makes little difference. |
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desultude
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Location: Dangling my toes in the Persian Gulf
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Forecasters said Rita could be the most intense hurricane on record ever to hit Texas, and easily one of the most powerful ever to plow into the U.S. mainland. Category 5 is the highest on the scale, and only three Category 5 hurricanes are known to have hit the U.S. mainland - most recently, Andrew, which smashed South Florida in 1992. |
So many storms, and so powerful, are a new thing. Yes, maybe if you really reach back into history you can find one or two, but now we are talking about two massive killer storms in three weeks.
The problem with the cyclical trends argument is that it doesn't hold up world wide, only for the Atlantic, according to this article from national Geographic- "If you look at a more global measure of this metric, you don't see these strong interdecadal swings. They cancel each other out between one ocean and the other," he said. "You see instead a large upward trend."
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0804_050804_hurricanewarming.html
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Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?
John Roach
for National Geographic News
August 4, 2005
Hurricanes bring winds and slashing rains that flood streets, flatten homes, and leave survivors struggling to pick up the pieces. But has global warming given the storms an added punch, making the aftereffects more dreadful?
According to hurricane historian Jay Barnes of Pine Knoll Shores, North Carolina, ocean heat is the key ingredient for hurricane formation. More heat could "generate more storms and more intense hurricanes," he said.
Numerous studies in recent years have found no evidence that the number of hurricanes and their northwest Pacific Ocean cousins, typhoons, is increasing because of the rise in global temperatures.
But a new study in the journal Nature found that hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures.
However, North Atlantic hurricanes account for only 12 percent of the total number of hurricanes and typhoons that form globally each year, Emanuel said.
"If you look at a more global measure of this metric, you don't see these strong interdecadal swings. They cancel each other out between one ocean and the other," he said. "You see instead a large upward trend."
According to Emanuel, on a global scale, the strength of storms corresponds with ocean temperatures: It goes up when temperatures go up, down when temperatures goes down.
Most scientists say the rise in sea surface temperature in the last 30 to 50 years is a signal of global warming.
"That's their conclusion, not mine," Emanuel said. "[But] it would follow reasonably well from this metric that the upswing [in intensity] �� is a result of global warming."
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http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html
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Global Warming and Hurricanes
The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures. |
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BigBlackEquus
Joined: 05 Jul 2005
Location: Lotte controls Asia with bad chocolate!
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| The only way I'd live anywhere near the Gulf coast these days is in a concrete house 10 ft off the ground with 3/8 '' steel shutters and 20 ft of driven pile as foundation, along with an off-the-grid power system. Yup, that's it. |
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Gord
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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| BigBlackEquus wrote: |
Many of these natural disasters are about the poles nearing a magnetic switch.
It has begun, and problems worldwide will intensify. Weather worldwide will go nuts. |
How have you reached that conclusion? |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:40 am Post subject: |
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| Gord wrote: |
| BigBlackEquus wrote: |
Many of these natural disasters are about the poles nearing a magnetic switch.
It has begun, and problems worldwide will intensify. Weather worldwide will go nuts. |
How have you reached that conclusion? |
Actually, there may be a connection. Some data suggests this. And if the pole switch somehow involves heating up of the core, thus eventually the crust, warmer waters.... |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| BigBlackEquus wrote: |
| Many of these natural disasters are about the poles nearing a magnetic switch. |
Heard about this "theory" a while back, yep. Let's just hope it's quick. Faster than the world can blink its eyes.
How about those polar ice-caps eh?  |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:58 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Many of these natural disasters are about the poles nearing a magnetic switch.
It has begun, and problems worldwide will intensify. Weather worldwide will go nuts.
Ever wonder how barren places used to be the most lush places in the world? When the Earth's magnetic poles flip, as does every several thousand years (proven fact) weather around the world takes a dramatic shift.
We are overdue for a flip.
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Yeah I heard that one as well. I have also wondered myself if that is what is going on at the moment as seasons seem to be getting switched in several places at the moment. e.g. Cold weather and heavy rain in the summer, long dry winters, when I remember it being quite opposite not that long ago and my mother and her aunty remember quite different seasons in their time a number of years ago. Maybe it is changing! The question is whether our governments are changing to deal with it. |
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