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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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 Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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| n3ptne wrote: |
| Dude, I don뭪 even have the time or energy to read your post... see if you can follow me. |
Thats a shame, you might be a little wiser by now.
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| A resistant carrier is EXACTLY the same as someone who carries a recessive gene. That is to say, they appear to be perfectly healthy... except the infect species with lower resistances. |
But you can still test to see if they are carriers. despite extensive tests of migrating wild birds, not a single one has tested positive for the disease. Now do you get it?
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| Now, while you and your pseudo-nonscientific-BS |
I have only quoted scientists who are studying this.
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| That is to say, quite simply, that wild flocks are recessively carrying the disease and infecting domesticated animals. |
But they are not: for the hundredth time...numerous tests have been conducted on such wild flocks....negative. Understand? Wild birds are not infected with, nor carrying this disease!!! How many times do I have to say it??
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| What that means to me, a human, is simple... The birds I depend on to live, or eat,are becoming increasingly infected |
The virus has been scientifically proved to be in domestic poultry- carried without symptoms. NOT in wild birds.
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| due to the migratory pattern of passive carriers who are otherwise unsick. |
Wrong. wrong, wrong. I really feel like I'm bashing my head against a brick wall. Just read my former posts. And for the hundredth time: Wild birds are not carriers, nor do they show resistance to the disease. Unlike domestic birds... All scientific evidence to prove this I have already researched and posted. But of course if you're too lazy to read it, whats the point?
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| those people who have the three letters proceeding their names are quite emphatic in the belief that these otherwise innocent animals... are responsible for infecting the flocks that do pose a direct threat to mankind. |
No, they are not. Some have a theory that wild birds may be able to carry the virus and infect other birds. But all research into it has shown that this is not the case. It is speculation.
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| the people who are in power think like me, and the evidence is in the fact that over the last two years 140million birds have been slaughtered to prevent the wide spread pandemic of avian flu. |
DOMESTIC BIRDS have been killed. Not wild birds. Understand???? |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:40 am Post subject: |
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Philippines: Agriculture Department Says Avoid Migratory Birds
By Rachel M. Nessia
MANILA: The Department of Agriculture (DA) warned residents to avoid migratory birds expected to fly in to Negros Oriental in the next few months. DA-Negros Oriental chief quarantine officer Dr. Alfonso Tundag said that with the expected seasonal migration, the department has laid out measures to protect shores from the threat of a bird flue pandemic in the country.
Tundag said DA has intensified the inspection of incoming shipment of animals and animal products for permits. In Negros Oriental, Tundag said, he has deployed quarantine officers to the Dumaguete and Sibulan ports to inspect shipments. "There have been instances when we confiscate shipments of smuggled goods like processed meat because there were no permits," says Tundag adding the confiscated products are being burned right away.
The quarantine officer said his people are monitoring identified areas in the province where migratory birds tend to gather, which include Tanjay City, Bais City, and parts of Amlan and Manjuyod. Tundag said that in countries affected by bird flu, most of those affected were poultry workers who are in contact with the avian animals.
He explained that migratory birds carrying the virus do not exhibit noticeable symptoms. "But they shed the virus and quickly infect local birds," the DA officer said. Tundag advised residents to fence their chickens to avoid contacting the droppings of migratory birds where the avian flu virus is present. "Also clean and disinfect poultry farms and surrounding areas," the quarantine officer advised.
Bird flu is considered a zoonotic disease that's transmissible to humans. Migratory birds are expected to fly into the country during the last quarter of each year. "This is the time when winter starts in the home countries of the migratory birds and they fly here to seek warmer climate, and return when winter starts to clear up," Tundag said.
Philippines, the only bird flu-free country in Southeast Asia, is particularly at risk to a real threat of a bird flu outbreak because of its location. The disease has already claimed six lives in Indonesia, bringing to 65 the number of deaths caused by the avian influenza since 2003.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/dum/2005/10/05/news/agri.dep.t.says.avoid.migratory.birds.html |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:52 am Post subject: |
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Bird samples from Mongolia confirmed as H5N1 avian flu
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has positively identified the pathogenic form of avian flu--H5N1--in samples taken from birds last week in Mongolia by field veterinarians from the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). It is the first instance of this viral strain occurring in wild migratory birds with no apparent contact to domestic poultry or waterfowl.
Present in Mongolia for a health survey of wild bird populations in the south and north of the country, WCS field vets Drs. William Karesh and Martin Gilbert responded to initial reports of the most recent avian influenza outbreak in Kovsgol Province near the Russian border from the Mongolian Ministry of Food and Agriculture, which conducted preliminary testing of birds that died at Erkhel Lake. Their finding coincided with confirmations of cases of avian influenza in Russia and Kazakhstan. Karesh and Gilbert immediately traveled to the site with a team of Mongolian virologists, veterinarians, and public health officials. Approximately 100 dead birds were found at the site.
Whereas prior outbreaks in wild birds have happened either in close proximity to infected domestic poultry and waterfowl, or in regions where such contact could not be excluded, Mongolia's paucity of domestic poultry suggests a new vector of avian flu. Finding the H5N1 strain during this expedition suggests that while the highly pathogenic avian influenza can be carried across long distances, the waterfowl species typically identified in recent outbreaks appear to be victims rather than effective carriers of the disease.
The team--including personnel from WCS, the Mongolian National Academy of Sciences, the Mongolian Institute of Veterinary Medicine, the State Central Veterinary Laboratory, Ministry of Food and Agriculture Veterinary Department, and the Ministry of Health Mongolian Center of Communicable Diseases with Natural Foci--collected samples from hundreds of wild birds, both live and dead including, ruddy shelduck, herring gull, black-headed gull, bar-headed goose, whooper swan, and Eurasian wigeon that are all at risk for contracting the virus.
Recent reports of influenza outbreaks in wild birds in China and Russia have failed to put die-offs in perspective with the numbers of unaffected birds, thus there was no way to assess the impact. The WCS team at Erkhel Lake in Mongolia collected this information for the first time. Overall, over 6,500 apparently healthy birds of 55 species were observed on the lake. The percentage of sick or dead birds was miniscule according to Gilbert following the survey, suggesting that either the virus had little effect on the birds or that very few were actually infected by the bug. Early results suggest that it may be the latter.
Supported by the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (F.A.O.), the team has sent the samples (774 in total) to the U.S.D.A.'s Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia, for further testing to determine whether this virus is the H5N1 strain that has killed over 50 people in Southeast Asia and more than 5,000 wild birds in western China. As of today, preliminary tests from one dead whooper swan collected in Mongolia have shown the presence of the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza using RT-PCR, while results from 30 live whooper swans living at the same site and also a nearby lake were negative for the virus. Samples collected from other live birds at the two sites, including sixty ruddy shelducks, twenty-four bar-headed geese, and twenty-five black-headed gulls, were found to be negative for the virus.
The multidisciplinary, collaborative response to this latest outbreak reflects the WCS One World-One Health approach to making informed, multidisciplinary decisions on global health crises that intersect human, wildlife, and livestock health. WCS experts are warning that to contain this potential epidemic, prevention activities must include better management practices in farms, especially those that are small and open-air, where domestic poultry and waterfowl are allowed to intermingle with wild birds. Officials would also need to monitor wildlife markets, where wild and domesticated species are kept in close proximity, and risk exposure to a wide range of pathogens.
Wildlife and health experts, including the F.A.O., maintain that indiscriminate culling of wild migratory bird populations would be ineffective in preventing the spread of avian flu. "Focusing our limited resources on the hubs and activities where humans, livestock, and wildlife come into close contact," says Dr. William Karesh, Director of WCS's Field Veterinary Program, who lead the WCS team in Mongolia, is "the best hope for successfully preventing the spread of avian flu and protecting both people and animals."
http://www.newstarget.com/011436.html
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:33 am Post subject: |
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| rapier wrote: |
| despite extensive tests of migrating wild birds, not a single one has tested positive for the disease. Now do you get it? |
Do you mean never found, or never found in a living specimen or one that survived for long? I could have sworn we just read reports of birds in Russia and somewhere else. And what about the report from the scientist in China? Did I miss something?
Edit: That's what I get for not finishing the thread before posting. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:39 am Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| rapier wrote: |
| despite extensive tests of migrating wild birds, not a single one has tested positive for the disease. Now do you get it? |
Do you mean never found, or never found in a living specimen or one that survived for long? I could have sworn we just read reports of birds in Russia and somewhere else. And what about the report from the scientist in China? Did I miss something?
Edit: That's what I get for not finishing the thread before posting. |
I mean: never found in wild birds independently of domestic ones. ie; the few outbreaks in wild birds have been infections from nearby poultry farms. And the affected birds succombed quickly and died in a localised place. No instance of a migrating bird testing positive for HN51 has been found, nor is there any evidence of wild birds carrying the disease from one area to the next: nor any evidence of wild birds being assymptomatic carriers, despite extensive testing.
By contrast, "fowl plague" has a long history in domestic poultry, dating back to 1878! despite the total lack of evidence, the assumption that "dirty" wild birds were responsible has persisted in popular imagination.
-give me a moment before i tackle the article M.O.S just posted. (I almost posted it myself just to help him along with his argument, as him and N3ptne were doing such a lousy job of backing up their debate). |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:14 am Post subject: |
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Ok, lets tackle the first piece of hysterical idiocy.
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Tundag said that in countries affected by bird flu, most of those affected were poultry workers who are in contact with the avian animals. |
-Try "All". There is no, repeat, NO, record ever of a wild bird infecting a person with bird flu. despite this he jumps to more ridiculous conclusions.
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| He explained that migratory birds carrying the virus do not exhibit noticeable symptoms. |
Once again: he doesn't know what he's talkning about. There is No, repeat NO instance of a wild bird, on the move or migrating, either carrying or suffering from the disease. on the other hand, poultry has been proven to carry it without any symptoms.
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| "But they shed the virus and quickly infect local birds," the DA officer said. |
What a numbnut. As I posted before: all evidence shows that wild birds have contracted the virus from poultry. Not the other way round. All recent outbreaks can be traced back to a domestic goose in China, in 1996. There are no, repeat NO known cases of wild birds infecting domestic poultry. So he's talking out of his ass. Like many officials do when they get their turn to be in the newspaper. I know, i was a journalist once.
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| Tundag advised residents to fence their chickens to avoid contacting the droppings of migratory birds where the avian flu virus is present. |
1+2=5-7=23.
Once again, no migrating wild bird has ever tested positive for the virus.
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| "Also clean and disinfect poultry farms and surrounding areas," the quarantine officer advised. |
Now he's onto something, hurrah!
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| Bird flu is considered a zoonotic disease that's transmissible to humans. |
Yes, despite the very few cases so far, ok. And none of them by wild birds- all by contact with domestic poultry. what you have here is an agricultural official who obviously knows zero about wild species, but is happy to scapegoat them as its a far easier and less expensive thing to do than take on the massive poultry and caged bird business.
So lets get the underlying message of this shoddy journalism straight: Without any evidence whatsoever, he has just incriminated every last species of wild bird, in a country that does not have the bird flu, and who's every case so far has been linked to contact with domestic poultry. His words and the article are typical of the damaging lunacy whipped up by ignorant people. Which those precious few with real knowledge have to confront with science and logic. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:08 am Post subject: |
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Now to discredit the next article.
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| [quote="Manner of Speaking"]It is the first instance of this viral strain occurring in wild migratory birds with no apparent contact to domestic poultry or waterfowl. |
It does not match migration patterns ,either linking it to outbreaks further west, or by date. What they don't mention is that there is a tourist camp on the end of erkhel lake, where poultry products were present. Gulls are scavengers that feed on human waste and rubbish- such as found at this camp. They may have picked it up by forageing nearby.
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| Approximately 100 dead birds were found at the site. |
As reported by W. Karesh DVM, Director, Field Veterinary Program, (in lit., September 2005):
"We visited 9 sites to sample live birds and also found dead birds at two sites (Erkhel and a small lake about 60 km southeast of Erkhel Lake). At Erkhel, there was a mix of species that died and probably all of them were NOT due to avian influenza.
But, H5N1 avian influenza was found in 3 dead Whooper Swans and 1 Bar-headed Goose. We counted over 6500 live birds of at least 55 species on Erkhel Lake at the time.
The estimate of 100 dead birds came from a period of about 2 weeks around the time of the live bird counts. About half of the dead birds were Whooper Swans. The other 50 or so we identified were Bar-headed Geese, Ruddy Shelduck, immature Herring [Mongolian] Gulls, and then some Common Pochards, Common Goldeneye and a number of other species.
Once again, it is important to realize that many things can kill birds, especially young ones and during the breeding and nesting season. Of the close to 900 live birds we sampled, including hundreds of Ruddy Shelduck, Bar-headed Geese, and Black-headed Gulls, Herring Gulls, and Whooper Swans, they all tested negative, meaning that they were not shedding the virus.
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Whereas prior outbreaks in wild birds have happened either in close proximity to infected domestic poultry and waterfowl, or in regions where such contact could not be excluded, Mongolia's paucity of domestic poultry suggests a new vector of avian flu. Finding the H5N1 strain during this expedition suggests that while the highly pathogenic avian influenza can be carried across long distances, the waterfowl species typically identified in recent outbreaks appear to be victims rather than effective carriers of the disease.
The percentage of sick or dead birds was miniscule according to Gilbert following the survey, suggesting that either the virus had little effect on the birds or that very few were actually infected by the bug. Early results suggest that it may be the latter. |
Of 6500 birds, only 3 tested positive for the virus. They were already dead, and did not spread it to any other birds. In other words: they died quickly without spreading it: they did not show resistance, the ability to carry the disease without symptoms.And, they did not spread it to poultry, people, or other birds.
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tests from one dead whooper swan collected in Mongolia have shown the presence of the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza using RT-PCR, while results from 30 live whooper swans living at the same site and also a nearby lake were negative for the virus. Samples collected from other live birds at the two sites, including sixty ruddy shelducks, twenty-four bar-headed geese, and twenty-five black-headed gulls, were found to be negative for the virus.
Wildlife and health experts, including the F.A.O., maintain that [b]indiscriminate culling of wild migratory bird populations would be ineffective in preventing the spread of avian flu. "Focusing our limited resources on the hubs and activities where humans, livestock, and wildlife come into close contact," says Dr. William Karesh, Director of WCS's Field Veterinary Program, who lead the WCS team in Mongolia, is "the best hope for successfully preventing the spread of avian flu and protecting both people and animals."[/b] |
In summary:
1)This is the only piece of evidence to date that suggests the possibility of birds migrating with the virus. 3 (!) deceased birds, out of 6500, tested postive. They did not pass it to other birds: it is inconclusive, as they very likely contracted it on site from the tourist camp next to the lake.: the migration patterns of whooper swans do not correspond to any other outbreak, by date or direction. Even if by bizarre chance the birds had actually migrated with it over distance, they still did not pass it on to other birds: it died with them.
In Mongolia, the affected area is also described by Mongolian reporters as a tourist destination with its local population in the low thousands.
See Mongolian news: http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/index.php?subaction=showfull&id=1123668266&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&
The method of spread can not be determined.Within Mongolia, it would be possible for the virus to move from place to place on vehicles: it could have been contracted from waste poultry products in the nearby tourist resort.
Inconclusive: try again.
Last edited by rapier on Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:11 am; edited 1 time in total |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:10 am Post subject: |
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[quote="rapier"]Ok, lets tackle the first piece of hysterical idiocy.[quote]
I've gotten tired of *your* hysterical idiocy. You have been communicating with people who are concerned about the subject. They have been rational and polite. Yet, time after time you are insulting in your responses. I assume this is because you consider yourself so knowledgeable on this particular subject. However, insulting sincere, concerned, earnest people is not helping you.
Now, Neptune, has been giving waht he's been getting. I'm sure he/she can take of him-/herself, so will not defend. The rest of us have been extremely patient with you on this thread. Now, since we are correct that a wild carrier is possible and have agreed with you that is not the most probable source of a possible outbreak, we have done nothing to incur your wrath.
I'm done. Go yell into the wilderness. |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:28 am Post subject: |
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Bush military bird flu role slammed
Thursday, October 6, 2005
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A call by President George W. Bush for Congress to give him the power to use the military in law enforcement roles in the event of a bird flu pandemic has been criticized as akin to introducing martial law.
Bush said aggressive action would be needed to prevent a potentially disastrous U.S. outbreak of the disease that is sweeping through Asian poultry and which experts fear could mutate to pass between humans.
Such a deadly event would raise difficult questions, such as how a quarantine might be enforced, the president said.
"I'm concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world," he told reporters during a Rose Garden news conference on Tuesday.
"One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move," he said. "So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."
The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 bans the military from participating in police-type activity on U.S. soil.
But Dr. Irwin Redlener, associate dean of Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and director of its National Center for Disaster Preparedness, told The Associated Press the president's suggestion was dangerous.
Giving the military a law enforcement role would be an "extraordinarily Draconian measure" that would be unnecessary if the nation had built the capability for rapid vaccine production, ensured a large supply of anti-virals like Tamiflu and not allowed the degradation of the public health system.
"The translation of this is martial law in the United States," Redlener said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/05/bush.reax/ |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 4:32 am Post subject: |
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[quote="EFLtrainer"][quote="rapier"]Ok, lets tackle the first piece of hysterical idiocy.
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I've gotten tired of *your* hysterical idiocy. You have been communicating with people who are concerned about the subject. They have been rational and polite. Yet, time after time you are insulting in your responses. I assume this is because you consider yourself so knowledgeable on this particular subject. However, insulting sincere, concerned, earnest people is not helping you.
Now, Neptune, has been giving waht he's been getting. I'm sure he/she can take of him-/herself, so will not defend. The rest of us have been extremely patient with you on this thread. Now, since we are correct that a wild carrier is possible and have agreed with you that is not the most probable source of a possible outbreak, we have done nothing to incur your wrath.
I'm done. Go yell into the wilderness. |
How did i insult you in my response to you? far from it: by hysterical idiocy I was referring to the writer of the news article.In any case i was replying to an article MOS had posted- not you. I was polite in my former response to your good self.
-And neptune roared onto this thread without reading it beforehand, with a load of BS, which he could not support. Quote "Lets kill em all. I am a capital meat eater. Wild birds are carriers of the virus. Lots of birds died but we're more evolved. I hate tree hugging hippies, I can't be bothered to read anyones posting but I know what I'm talking about"" etc etc.
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| Now, since we are correct that a wild carrier is possible[/b |
I never said that it wasn't [b]possible. I said that it was unproven, and there were no instances of it.
All along I've agreed that wild birds can be infected and die from it. But my assertion was that they are not responsible for its spread to domestic stocks. This remains wholly intact.
I also asserted that they have not spread the disease from one area to the next by migration. this remains intact. Only 4 birds on Erkhel lake in mongolia tested positive for it, and they were already dead. The means wherby it arrived at that locality is undetermined- but is unlikely to have been by migration. The birds involved did not spread it to other birds. 4 birds, out of 6500(!) died/were found to have it. And they could have contracted it on site. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:00 am Post subject: |
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EFLTrainer,
Regardless of the "noise" on the thread, there was another interesting article today published by Radio Free Europe:
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U.S. Scientists Say 1918 Killer Pandemic Caused By Bird Flu
By Jeremy Bransten
Amid increasing concern that bird flu outbreaks around the world could metamorphose into a deadly human flu pandemic, U.S. scientists this week announced some frightening news. Research has now confirmed that the 1918 flu pandemic -- which killed 50 million people -- was caused by a bird flu virus that jumped directly to humans.
In just one year, from 1918 to 1919, as many as 50 million people around the world succumbed to the flu pandemic. For decades, speculation abounded about what exactly caused the catastrophic outbreak.
Now, scientists in the United States led by Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, of the Armed Forces Institute in Washington, and Terrence Tumpey, of the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, say they have resolved one of the great medical mysteries of the 20th century. And the timing couldn��t be more grimly appropriate.
The researchers have proven what had long been suspected and feared: The 1918 pandemic was caused directly by bird flu. John Oxford, a top British virologist, calls this finding the biggest breakthrough of its kind in many years. But he said it is especially alarming because it means the current outbreaks of bird flu in Asia and Russia are even more likely to morph into a human flu pandemic than scientists had previously believed.
Until the U.S. findings were released, scientists thought the bird flu virus would first have to mix with a human flu virus for it to become an effective human pandemic agent. That is what happened during the less serious flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968.
But what researchers have now proven is that the far more deadly 1918 pandemic was caused by a pure bird flu virus that jumped into the human population directly. No transition phase was necessary.
The current bird flu virus that is mostly circulating around Asia but is spreading westward -- H5N1 -- has already shown it can infect humans. It has only killed some 60 people so far. But if it suddenly mutates, as happened in 1918, it could become a killer on a grand scale.
"The current situation is fairly dangerous with the H5N1 [virus], the chicken flu in Southeast Asia. And this report by the American group, Taubenberger's group, heightens that worry quite significantly, because in its essence, what it shows is that in 1918, a virus not so different from H5N1 came across as a single package," Oxford said. "It leapt across from a chicken or a goose or a duck in its entirety, infected humans and then broke into a great world epidemic that killed 50 million people."
Taubenberger��s group achieved its breakthrough after 10 years of pioneering research that recalls the popular movie ��Jurassic Park.��
The scientists managed to piece together the exact genetic sequence of the 1918 virus. They did this using tissue samples from people who died in the epidemic. One of the samples came from a woman who died in a remote Alaskan village that was wiped out by the disease. She had been buried in a mass grave and her body remained intact thanks to the northern permafrost.The 1918 outbreak, unlike ordinary influenzas that hit the sick and elderly hardest, killed a disproportionate number of young, otherwise healthy adults.
Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control then infected various laboratory animals with the virus, taking out and adding genes, to measure its exact effect.
They found that changing just 20 to 30 out of the 4,000 amino acids contained in the original bird flu viral proteins made it into a human killer. In other words, the mutation that turned the virus from a bird killer into a human killer was very small.
What happened in the lead-up to the 1918 pandemic, according to Oxford, was similar to where we find ourselves now. Disease-carrying migratory birds from Asia appeared in Europe. Small outbreaks began.
"In 1917-1918, [the birds] would have overflown England, overflown France. The war was going on. There were little outbreaks -- just like at the moment, actually, in Southeast Asia," Oxford said. "There were not huge amounts of people dying, but groups of 50 people dying, groups of 60 people dying in the great army camps on the Western Front. And I think now, looking back, that's where the virus had its genesis -- not in Spain, not in Asia as such and not in the United States, but there in France. And then the great movement of young people in 1918 -- in October 1918, when the war was ending -- gave the virus its opportunity to spread around the world."
In recent weeks, scientists at the World Health Organization have expressed growing alarm at the potential for H5N1 to turn into a killer pandemic. This week, U.S. President George W. Bush also said America needed to prepare for a possible outbreak.
Oxford says it��s time the world woke up. "Forget bioterrorism. Forget Iraq. Forget all this," Oxford said. "What could threaten us all is Mother Nature in the form of a great infectious disease. So, if anything, this study and other studies reawaken that possibility -- and it's a very distinct possibility -- that this virus, this current virus, this H5N1, could break out and sweep around the world."
Fortunately, unlike in 1918, preventive measures can be taken. But it will require political initiative from world governments. Ordinary annual flu shots will do nothing to protect people from a pandemic.
And the 1918 outbreak, unlike ordinary influenzas that hit the sick and elderly hardest, killed a disproportionate number of young, otherwise healthy adults.
But the good news is that a new generation of antiviral drugs can be mass produced and stockpiled and should be effective in combating an outbreak. A specific human vaccine against H5N1 can and should be developed, according to Oxford. "That's the No. 1 preventative strategy: to build up that class of drugs," Oxford said. "This is new technology. This is a new discovery in the last five, six, seven years. And we must exploit that to the full extent. As regards vaccines, it's fair enough that the virus from Asia at the moment -- the H5N1 -- may not emerge. Maybe another one will. But I still think this is important enough for us to conclude at the moment that this is the threat. And so make the vaccine now against H5N1. If it doesn't emerge, throw the vaccine away and make another batch."
Several European countries have begun to stockpile antiviral medication. The big questions now is whether other world leaders will also heed scientists�� calls -- while there is still time.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/10/461a3997-0271-46fb-96ff-80063f4e40d1.html |
The article is a bit apocalyptic in spots, but if John Oxford is a "top British Virologist", I assume he knows what he's talking about. He says that the virus from the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic was spread by "disease carrying migratory birds" flying from Asia to Europe. I'm not sure what the basis is for his comments, but he seems to think that migratory birds were a key vector in this pandemic.
Strange. In 1918, you would presume that poultry farms in Asia and Europe were, while not necessarily sanitary, at least small-scale. The large scale poultry operations we see today didn't exist, and certainly there was less density of population in Europe and Asia. I'm just guessing, but while poultry operation conditions were different in 1918, migratory bird populations and migration routes were (presumably) the same as they are today. Its anecdotal evidence at this point, but the 1918 Pandemic seems to suggest or confirm the capability of migratory wildfowl to transmit pre-infectious (to human) strains of the flu over very long distances.
Apparently we can conclude that migratory wildfowl are a vector of concern with regards to avian flu, because the historical record seems to show it's happened before. |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:47 am Post subject: |
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I'd be interested to see the proof this scientist is basing his assumptions on. And why he doesn't consider poultry to be significant despite overwhelming evidence. I've never seen so much hearsay and unproven speculation surround an issue before in my life.
lets just do a recap:
*Worldwide, only 60 people have died of this treatable and innoculable disease, all of them from contact with Poultry, not wild birds.
* Only 4 wild birds, out of thousands, have tested positive in a way that suggests they might possibly have carried the disease by migration. Even then, they did not spread it to other birds, poultry nor people.
* Outbreaks have followed poultry transport routes, and poultry is proven to be the reservoir of the disease.
Yetdespite all this, the sensationalist media warns of invading birds spreading death like wildfire. And people swallow it. Because the movements of wild birds are something we can't control. It appeals to our nature to want to control everything. And if we don't control it or fully understand it, "we must kill it."
Even if you wipe out every last wild bird from the planet, the disease will still occurr, because it is present in domestic poultry. Duh!
Are these the same american scientists that deny the existence of global warming and that reccomend burning more fossil fuels? And what timing.- Bush wants to make the US a military state, so first he puts about alarmist stories to justify his next moves. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:14 am Post subject: |
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Actually, that info was posted earlier in the thread. By me.  |
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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Its puzzling: that there appears to be an irrational and determined drive to blame wild birds for a disease we created. We keep millions of chickens stacked on top of eachother in unsanitary and overcrowded conditions. The birds become the victims, then we blame them.
Despite all evidence, this human tendency to scapegoat animals for problems we have created seems to persist throughout history- always accompanied by ignorance. It starts with eve blaming a snake: bit by bit as humans have interfered and destroyed the cycle of life, we have scapegoated animals for the resulting problems.
It is in the nature of humans to blame others, to simplify complex issues in lieu of trying to understand them, and to single out a villain to blame for their own failures. Very often it is animals -- little understood and incapable of defending themselves -- who are held liable for the consequences of human actions.
http://www.api4animals.org/1515.htm
From seals eating too many fish, whales eating too much krill: wolves eating babies, crows pecking sheeps eyes: cats killing too many birds, birds eating too much grain, etc etc etc, we have found never ending excuses to over-exploit and annihilate the biodiversity of our planet. If push comes to shove, nature will do without us. And we will deserve it. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2005 7:50 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
I've never seen so much hearsay and unproven speculation surround an issue before in my life.
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I have to agree with the above statement.
There's a lot of information being published at the moment, which seems pretty pointless. Unless they kill every bird in the world prior to the virus changing carriers, (adapting and becoming deadly) there isn't much that the majority of us can do except be careful around sick and dead birds. They could have just repeated that main point without all the other hype. |
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