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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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 Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 11:40 pm Post subject: Canada to outpace U.S. economy in 2006: Scotiabank |
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http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/2005/12/21/scotia-051221.html
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Canada will continue to grow by about three per cent in 2006 and 2007 as strong domestic demand compensates for the drag of a higher-valued loonie and competition from low-cost foreign competitors.
In its global outlook, Keeping Canada Competitive, Scotiabank said energy-rich Western Canada is counterbalancing softer expansion in other regions of the country.
"Canada may even regain G7 leadership by the end of this period," said Warren Jestin, Scotiabank's chief economist, noting that growth in the United States is expected to fall below three per cent for the first time in nearly five years.
Canada will do well compared to Japan and Europe, which are expected to grow by only 1.5 to 2 per cent this year.
But Mexico is expected to outpace by Canada by about 0.5 percentage points, and China will top the world performance charts, growing by 8.5 to nine per cent annually, with India cruising along at seven to 7.5 per cent.
Scotiabank said China and India are growing at more than three times the average rate in the largest industrialized countries, often termed the G7 or G8.
"China is in the process of overtaking Canada as top foreign supplier of non-energy products to the U.S.," Jestin said, adding that Canada's market share in this segment has dropped to 12.5 per cent from 17 per cent six years ago.
Scotiabank expects the Federal Reserve to push U.S. borrowing costs up another 0.5 percentage points in the opening months of 2006 to dampen inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Canada may raise interest rates more than the Fed because of worries that inflation will rise in the face of the lowest unemployment rate in a generation, a shortage of skilled labour and rising capacity constraints.
Canada's core inflation is still hovering below two per cent.
Jestin expects the Canadian dollar to "soar to 90 cents US or beyond" as the Canada benefits from its strong balance of payments and strategic positions in energy and industrial resources.
The U.S. dollar will probably fall back because the U.S. deficit is stuck above $300 billion US and the merchandise trade deficit is soaring above $800 billion.
Consumers are likely to become more cautious in 2006 and 2007, Scotiabank warned. Job creation is moderating, borrowing costs are edging up and the housing boom is waning. High gasoline and home heating costs are taking a bigger bite out of discretionary income at a time when there is little pent-up demand for cars and other big-ticket consumer durables.
On a regional basis, British Columbia will be one of Canada's top provincial performers in 2006 and 2007, with energy, mining and construction activity powering ahead.
Energy exploration will keep Alberta at the top of Canada's performance chart, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba will outperform Central Canada over the next two years.
Ontario will trail the national average for the fourth year in a row in 2006 and 2007. Manufacturing, especially the auto sector, is trimming excess capacity and boosting productivity. An even stronger Canadian dollar, high electricity costs, and the prospect of slower U.S. growth will keep pressure on overall growth and exports.
Quebec's large forestry sector has been hurt by harvest restrictions, while paper plants are closing because of North American overcapacity.
Among the Atlantic provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador's prospects have been energized, with provincial exports set to move higher with White Rose and the Voisey's Bay nickel project on stream.
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: seoul
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| Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:50 am Post subject: |
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The Economist poll of GDP forecasts for 2006 predicts the US will grow at 3.3% and Canada at 3%. Of course these things have a way of changing.
In other words, the US economy will grow by about 350billionUS, or about a third of the entire Canadian economy.
Canada's will grow by about 30billion.
The gap widens. |
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Pligganease
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Location: The deep south...
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| Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2005 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Canada to outpace U.S. economy in 2006: Scotiabank |
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| Octavius Hite's source wrote: |
| "China is in the process of overtaking Canada as top foreign supplier of non-energy products to the U.S.," Jestin said, adding that Canada's market share in this segment has dropped to 12.5 per cent from 17 per cent six years ago. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2005 3:56 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| China is in the process of overtaking Canada as top foreign supplier of non-energy products to the U.S.," Jestin said, adding that Canada's market share in this segment has dropped to 12.5 per cent from 17 per cent six years ago. |
Oops.
If both market share and political support are declining, what does that say about influence on your key market? |
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Hollywoodaction
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:11 am Post subject: |
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| Why did you even bother to post this? |
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Pligganease
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Location: The deep south...
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| Why did you even bother to post this? |
Because OH hates the US and somehow thought that this would make the US look like less and Canada look like more. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Pligganease wrote: |
| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| Why did you even bother to post this? |
Because OH hates the US and somehow thought that this would make the US look like less and Canada look like more. |
Yes. He likes to fit the stereotype of the "ugly canadian" apparently. |
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Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Pligganease wrote: |
| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| Why did you even bother to post this? |
Because OH hates the US and somehow thought that this would make the US look like less and Canada look like more. |
Yes. He likes to fit the stereotype of the "ugly canadian" apparently. |
Canada's economy is hopelessly messed up by huge government and unbelieveable government waste, and even so the US might not be able to outpace it. If I were an American I'd find that quite disappointing. But I'd be much more alarmed that for yet another year America's deficit will likely be greater than its GDP growth. But then reality doesn't play very heavily into the average American voter's decisions. |
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RachaelRoo
Joined: 15 Jul 2005
Location: Anywhere but Ulsan!
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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This report is far from unbiased. Of course a Canadian bank wants to paint a rosy picture of Canada's economy and focuses on the good and not the bad.
Also, won't a rising dollar hurt our exporting capabilites? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2005 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| If in fact Canada's economy has such healthy growth next year, does that mean there will be fewer uni grads lining up for hakwon jobs in South Korea? |
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