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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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 Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 9:35 pm Post subject: Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform |
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Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform
A hawkish U.S. think tank warns that cuts in South Korea��s troop numbers from 680,000 to 500,000 by 2020 in under defense reform plans could make the country look weak and hurt its ability to counter a hidden threat from North Korea's special forces.
The analysis of South Korea��s 2020 National Defense Reforms came from the Rand Corporation and was conveyed to Grand National Party lawmaker Hwang Jin-ha by Bruce Bennett of the institute.
Bennett said even though the quality of military forces would be improved as numbers shrink, there is a danger that South Korea could look weaker with a smaller military force. He claimed the cuts will cause confusion and increase pressure on South Korea. The think tank was skeptical that South Korea is capable of securing the necessary military capability to establish an independent national defense, especially where a hostile country uses nuclear or biochemical weapons.
Bennett said Seoul would need W50-60 trillion (US$50-60 billion) annually to build up a military force comparable to the U.S. forces now stationed here. He added risk management for the reform plans required strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance, securing officers and deputy commanders, increasing the budget by 3-5 percent annually from 2015 to 2020 to pay for modernization of equipment, raising awareness of the danger from weapons of mass destruction, and improving intelligence gathering.
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http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200512/200512300019.html |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:03 am Post subject: |
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Funny ... i'd tend to agree re: sizeable cuts to their numbers.
That is at least, unless the reductions are reciprocated by neighbouring Asian nations. |
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Hollywoodaction
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 4:10 am Post subject: Re: Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform |
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| I agree that South Korea will face some problems, but not necessarily for the same reasons as the ones listed in the article. Odds are that North Korea will have collapsed by 2020 and South Korea will be stuck footing the bill to defend an area twice as large as it is already defending. I would suspect this task will only be possible if some North Korean troups are kept, but the expense will be quite large as these will need new equipment and training to maintain logistical integrity. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform |
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| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| I agree that South Korea will face some problems, but not necessarily for the same reasons as the ones listed in the article. Odds are that North Korea will have collapsed by 2020 and South Korea will be stuck footing the bill to defend an area twice as large as it is already defending. I would suspect this task will only be possible if some North Korean troups are kept, but the expense will be quite large as these will need new equipment and training to maintain logistical integrity. |
What defense does Korea need except from NK???  |
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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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| The future is unforeseeable. A strong military is insurance against everything going pear-shaped even after the threat from the North is gone. China might decide to annex its historical 'little brother', the hard right could get control of Japan and re-arm, etc. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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The ambition of the present administration is for Korea to play the balancer in NE Asia. To do that successfully, they will have to invest massive amounts of money into weapons systems and training. With an economy 1/7 the size of Japan's, I don't see where they will get the money to have both guns and butter.
Reducing the number of men in the military is unavoidable because the birthrate is below replacement level. To have 500,000 troops means they are planning on keeping mandatory military service. That is not something the young generation wanted to hear.
I think Rand is pointing at the gap between Roh's rhetoric and the practical realities. |
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Hollywoodaction
Joined: 02 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| I agree that South Korea will face some problems, but not necessarily for the same reasons as the ones listed in the article. Odds are that North Korea will have collapsed by 2020 and South Korea will be stuck footing the bill to defend an area twice as large as it is already defending. I would suspect this task will only be possible if some North Korean troups are kept, but the expense will be quite large as these will need new equipment and training to maintain logistical integrity. |
What defense does Korea need except from NK??? |
Well, China has a history of agression against its neighbors (look at Taiwan and Tibet). There is bound to be some conflict because China claims much of the Korean peninsula, just as Koreans claim a big area of China. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2006 6:16 am Post subject: |
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| (look at Taiwan and Tibet). |
Not to mention Manchuria and Inner Mongolia.
You don't get to be as big as China without putting out some effort, especially if it involves crossing a couple of mountain ranges and a desert or two. |
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Bee Positive
Joined: 27 Oct 2005
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| Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2006 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Rand Sends Dire Warning on Korea��s Defense Reform |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| Hollywoodaction wrote: |
| I agree that South Korea will face some problems, but not necessarily for the same reasons as the ones listed in the article. Odds are that North Korea will have collapsed by 2020 and South Korea will be stuck footing the bill to defend an area twice as large as it is already defending. I would suspect this task will only be possible if some North Korean troups are kept, but the expense will be quite large as these will need new equipment and training to maintain logistical integrity. |
What defense does Korea need except from NK??? |
Haven't you been here long enough to know that JAPAN is the enemy?
I once tutored a mid-ranking bureaucrat at the NPA (National Police Agency). When the topic of Korea's future came up, he gave me the "I shouldn't be telling you this" prologue, and then launched into a soliloquy on his country's security woes.
From his perspective, the really big trouble facing South Korea is that its navy can't stand up to Japan's. A lifelong friend of his (or so he told me), had achieved a fairly high rank in the South Korean navy, and had passed along the information that he and all his colleagues were all scared s---less about what Japan could do to the South in the event of war between the two countries.
I was new enough in Korea at the time to respond in that Alice-in-Wonderland kind of way. It just didn't seem possible that I was hearing about South Korea facing a military threat from anywhere but the North.
On another occasion, I had to interview a scientist from the DDA (Defense Development Agency) to assess his English skills. He told me that looking into the future, South Korea sees Japan as a potential military threat. Followed by China and possibly Russia. Hence the need for his work developing missiles, or tanks. (I forget which.)
This is a topic that's come up more than a few times for me. Whenever I question how likely it is that Korea will be invaded by Japan anytime soon, I'm solemnly informed that "it's a scientific fact that history repeats," or words to that effect.
Woe betide you if you doubt. Like the dreaded fan death, the Japanese propensity for invading Korea at any time is something you ignore at your own risk. They did, after all, steal Korea's kimchi, didn't they . . . ?
BEE POSITIVE |
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