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To prove NK does not abduct SKoreans, NK abducts SKoreans
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Basically stop shipments of everything to the North. No rice, no fertilizer, no money, nothing, nada, zippo. let China pick up the slack if hey want. Close down Kaesong and refuse to help NK start any sort of free trade zone as they wanted to do.


In other words, return to the policy of 1950-1997, right? I'm no fan of the way the Sunshine Policy has been implemented, but the old policy was just as useless.
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jinju



Joined: 22 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
Basically stop shipments of everything to the North. No rice, no fertilizer, no money, nothing, nada, zippo. let China pick up the slack if hey want. Close down Kaesong and refuse to help NK start any sort of free trade zone as they wanted to do.


In other words, return to the policy of 1950-1997, right? I'm no fan of the way the Sunshine Policy has been implemented, but the old policy was just as useless.


Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JinJu wrote:

Quote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
Basically stop shipments of everything to the North. No rice, no fertilizer, no money, nothing, nada, zippo. let China pick up the slack if hey want. Close down Kaesong and refuse to help NK start any sort of free trade zone as they wanted to do.



In other words, return to the policy of 1950-1997, right? I'm no fan of the way the Sunshine Policy has been implemented, but the old policy was just as useless.


Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.


I think what Ya-Ta Boy might have been getting at was that a return to the pre-Sunshine Days would have no measurable effect on the North, contrary to what the usual anti-Sunshine rhetoric implies. You know the drill...

"Uri's soft touch is getting no results. Let's get the hardliners in there and then we'll see some action".

The implication, of course, is that the North will respond to a "get tough" approach taken by the GNP et al. But what Ya-Ta Boy is pointing out is that the "get tough" approach was tried for nearly 50 years, to no effect.

I'm no expert on these things, but I think the case could be made that the North was even more isolated during the heyday of "get tough" than it is now. As I've said before on this forum, I don't think the Sunshine Policy is particularly harmful, because the North is going to do what it wants regardless of what approach the South takes. And it's quite probable that Sunshine has made life a bit better for a number of deserving people. Certainly, those elderly people are happy to have seen their long lost relatives, the North's last-minute antics notwithstanding.

My only real objection to Sunshine is that it is being sold to the South Korean people as the magical formula for instant re-unification. And the particulars of the recipe states that the South Koreans have to self-monitor their own political discussions in order to appease the North. Which probably WOULD be an acceptable price to pay if re-unification really were just around the corner. Censor yourself for a year or so, then BANG, peace and brotherly love breaks out accross the peninsula. But as things are going now, we could end up with decades of self-censorship by the South, with no reciprocation whatsoever from the North.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jinju wrote:

Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.

I think the opposite might work better. Not caving in to them politically, but on the other hand separating politics from economics and doing everything to open the country economically.
Death by Big Mac- once the country gets addicted to consumerism, there won't be any turning back.
And while I won't vouch wholeheartedly for the Sunshine Policy, there is an element of this in it.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
jinju wrote:

Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.

I think the opposite might work better. Not caving in to them politically, but on the other hand separating politics from economics and doing everything to open the country economically.
Death by Big Mac- once the country gets addicted to consumerism, there won't be any turning back.
And while I won't vouch wholeheartedly for the Sunshine Policy, there is an element of this in it.


That would basically be my version of the Sunshine policy as well. The trick, though, would be getting the North Korean public to associate the nifty new consumer goods with South Korea and/or the outside world in general. The regime would do everything in its power to ensure that the populace does not make that connection.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, it wouldn't be quick or easy, but then what else has worked better in the last 53 years?
Returning to a failed policy certainly isn't the way to go, jinju.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the North needs the carrot and the stick. The North currently gets anything it wants from the South. In fact, more it struts around and embarrasses the USA, the more South Korea seems to reward it.

If there's to be one Korea, the North needs to get its economy in order. We're talking a 50 year project there. The people in charge aren't going to give up the reigns of power willingly, for the greater good. They need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the light.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.


In addition to what OTOH and Bulsajo added, how do you stangle the North if China feeds them?

My view is more in line with mindmetoo's carrot and stick. Offer the Norks fertilizer (or whatever) but don't deliver without a compensating move from them. KJI has started economic reform. Encourage it.

The heart of the problem as I see it is that the URI Party is sympathetic to socialism and fairly hostile to capitalism. They seem to want the South to become more like the North. I think they want reunification with a successful, somewhat socialist, North.

The GNP is not going to drop the Sunshine Policy. It's too popular. And they have no alternative policy to offer in its place. No one wants to return to the failed policy of confrontation. That went nowhere. All the GNP can do is modify how the policy is conducted.
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jinju



Joined: 22 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Quote:
Yes, return to that. Let China feed those bastards. What has the good will Korea is showing the North gotten? Nothing. Strangle the bastards economically.


In addition to what OTOH and Bulsajo added, how do you stangle the North if China feeds them?

My view is more in line with mindmetoo's carrot and stick. Offer the Norks fertilizer (or whatever) but don't deliver without a compensating move from them. KJI has started economic reform. Encourage it.

The heart of the problem as I see it is that the URI Party is sympathetic to socialism and fairly hostile to capitalism. They seem to want the South to become more like the North. I think they want reunification with a successful, somewhat socialist, North.

The GNP is not going to drop the Sunshine Policy. It's too popular. And they have no alternative policy to offer in its place. No one wants to return to the failed policy of confrontation. That went nowhere. All the GNP can do is modify how the policy is conducted.


How? If Korea stopped all shipments to the north, do you think China would be happy to pick up 100% of the slack? I really doubt that. What you would see is China coming down hard on North Korea to shape up. China dislikes North Korea but it does what it does because it nees to. However I think there is a limit. If China had to pick up all of the slack you would see them lose their patience rather quickly. Basically, what Im saying is aimed at China. Make them choose: keep the status quo and be the sole sugar daddy of NK or put the hammer down and force them to shape up.

NK needs to be confronted and pronto. I hope the GNP can do that.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 3:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How? If Korea stopped all shipments to the north, do you think China would be happy to pick up 100% of the slack? I really doubt that. What you would see is China coming down hard on North Korea to shape up.


Shape up in what way, exactly? I doubt that China really cares about political liberalization in NK. So I don't think you'd see them saying "more freedom or no goodies for you". And even if they were to try something like that, the North would just turn around and say "if we can't feed our people, the regime will collapse and you'll have a civil war on your border". Then China would just pony up the extra dough to keep KJI afloat.

The only thing I could see China doing is prodding the North into some sort of long term economic reforms, so as to make them a little more self-reliant at some unspecified point in the future. But the Chinese have gotta know that NK is so effed up that that's not gonna happen overnight. And anyway economic reforms would most likely involve the participation of South Korean buslnesses, which in your scenario would(I assume) have already pulled out of the North.
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jinju



Joined: 22 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 3:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
How? If Korea stopped all shipments to the north, do you think China would be happy to pick up 100% of the slack? I really doubt that. What you would see is China coming down hard on North Korea to shape up.


Shape up in what way, exactly? I doubt that China really cares about political liberalization in NK. So I don't think you'd see them saying "more freedom or no goodies for you". And even if they were to try something like that, the North would just turn around and say "if we can't feed our people, the regime will collapse and you'll have a civil war on your border". Then China would just pony up the extra dough to keep KJI afloat.

The only thing I could see China doing is prodding the North into some sort of long term economic reforms, so as to make them a little more self-reliant at some unspecified point in the future. But the Chinese have gotta know that NK is so effed up that that's not gonna happen overnight. And anyway economic reforms would most likely involve the participation of South Korean buslnesses, which in your scenario would(I assume) have already pulled out of the North.


You think so? Heres what I think would happen. if KJI ever threatened China, he would be removed quicker than he can kidnap a Japanese citizen. China tolerates him because NK is a sort of 2nd front against the US vis a vis Taiwan. As long as NK acts up but doesnt cause a war, China tolerates them. Now, make them REALLY pay for propping up KJI. Lets see how long they tolerate him. If KJI ever threatens Beijing, he signing his death warrant.

In my scenario SK confronts NK, stops ALL aid and shots down Kaesong.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you are short-changing the Chinese on patience and 'generosity'. They, along with the Soviets, subsidized the North all during the Cold War. And that was when the Chinese were broke. Now they ain't.

I do agree that the Dear Leader will not threaten China. It is not in his interest to do that.

Nor is it in China's interest to a) have collapse and chaos on their border; b) subsidize the Norks any more than they have to to prevent 'a'; c) slap the North in to line as long as the US supports Taiwan; or d) encourage or discourage reunification as long as the South is allied to the US.

The South is no longer willing to have a confrontationist policy. Not only didn't it work before, the South is too comfortable to risk war to change things. The only alternative is some form of Sunshine Policy.
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chinese will let the Norks be as crazy as they wanna be, just for leverage on ROK and Japan, not to mention the US.

"KJI may be a sunnufabitch, but he's OUR sunnufabitch"
- HU Jintao
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rapier



Joined: 16 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

North Korea has been abducting South koreans steadily for the past 50 years! Fishermen taken from boats and islands..and so on. Its been going on for a long time, in a steady trickle, while the south Korean Govt has played it down and done nothing.

"South Korean statistics claim that 486 Koreans have been abducted by North Korea since the end of the Korean War. Most of them were captured while fishing near the DMZ, but some were abducted by North Korean agents in South Korea."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_South_Koreans


only difference is, this time they would've bitten off too big a chunk to get away with.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If North Korea fell apart tomorrow, it's not hard to believe some Chinese backed North Korean government asking Chinese troops to come in and help "stabilize" the situation. Now North Korea is a Chinese province. Doesn't it say that right in history that North Korea has always been part of China?

The South has to walk two fine lines: 1) getting the North to pull up its socks so the South isn't destroyed economically trying to install flush toilets 2) Establishing its exclusive claim as protector and peace keeper in the North in the event of a sudden collapse. If the North has always relied on China for its aid, then the rest of the world wouldn't really care too much if the Chinese dealt with the problem.

And there's gotta be elements of the South Korean government that feels their john thomases gain a full inch every time a brother Northerner acts like a petulant school child before the mighty USA.
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