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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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 Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:53 pm Post subject: Iraqi PM confirms Zarqawi death |
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hmm, now what happens?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5058304.stm
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Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has announced that militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been killed.
The Jordanian-born leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq is considered the figurehead of the Sunni insurgency. Reports say he was killed in an air raid near Baghdad.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq has been blamed for scores of bombings that have killed hundreds of Shias and US forces.
Zarqawi appeared in a video earlier this year, in which he reproached the US for its "arrogance and insolence".
The BBC's Andrew North in Baghdad says that if the reports are proved to be true it will be seen as a very significant moment in the fight against the insurgency, especially as it comes early in the life of Mr Maliki's government. |
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igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:34 am Post subject: |
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How does this constitute a confirmation? 
Unsubstantiated assertion is a lot more like it.
Oh yes, this reminds me. How many times did US troops have this "useful idiot" in custody,
only to release him because they "didn't know who he was"?
Over the past few years, he's proven quite useful in his "role".
btw - That BBC "story" is sure to have Orwell rolling in his grave  |
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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:47 am Post subject: |
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| We'll see, they have his DNA via the Jordanian prison system so we will know in the next few days, im sure they will have his head all over the newspapers. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 5:47 am Post subject: |
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| Al-Qaeda itself confirmed his death. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 6:37 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| The BBC's Andrew North in Baghdad says that if the reports are proved to be true it will be seen as a very significant moment in the fight against the insurgency, especially as it comes early in the life of Mr Maliki's government. |
Does the viability of the insurgency(by which I assume to mean everyone in Iraq who is using violence to end the occupation) really depend on the well-being of Mr. Zarqawi?
On the face of it, this sorta sounds like yet another attempt to spin a less-than-apocalyptic event as "the beginning of the end for the insurgency". I remember similar claims being made when Saddam was arrested, as if the point of the insurgency was to get Saddam Hussein The Man Himself back in office. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| He was a truly evil man. This is good news. I'll be drinking a toast to his death later. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:19 am Post subject: |
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| On the other hand wrote: |
On the face of it, this sorta sounds like yet another attempt to spin a less-than-apocalyptic event as "the beginning of the end for the insurgency". I remember similar claims being made when Saddam was arrested, as if the point of the insurgency was to get Saddam Hussein The Man Himself back in office. |
Yeah. I'm just happy he's gone because he was an evil man. I think anyone who argues this is a deadly blow to terrorism (and/or the insurgency) in Iraq is incredibly naive. |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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From Strafor:
Iraq: The Implications of Al-Zarqawi's Death
June 08, 2006 13 48 GMT
Summary
U.S. air assets bombed a location in central Iraq on June 7 and killed local jihadist leader and al Qaeda representative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This event will resonate far and wide.
Analysis
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed June 7 by U.S. forces in Baqubah, Iraq.
For some three years, al-Zarqawi has been the only person affiliated with al Qaeda who has demonstrated the ability to sustain operations in any theater. Other attacks have certainly happened, but their effectiveness has steadily bled away. The July 2005 London bombing not only inflicted a far lower level of devastation than either Spain's March 11 or the U.S. Sept. 11 attacks, but had no appreciable effect on policy.
Al-Zarqawi may have not been a global mastermind, being bogged down as he was in the Iraqi theater, but his tactics were geared to a holistic strategy of discrediting U.S. forces and sparking conflict between Iraqi Sunnis and Shia. It was an intellectually sound strategy and of all the opposing forces that Washington faced in Iraq, al-Zarqawi is the one who most frustrated U.S. aims.
In losing al-Zarqawi, al Qaeda has lost both its biggest headline-grabber and its most effective operative.
But the implications for al Qaeda are nothing compared to the implications for Iraq. Al-Zarqawi and the other jihadists have long been the most effective tool of Iraqi's Sunni community. Whenever negotiations among the Americans, the Shia, the Kurds and the Iranians have threatened to reduce the collective Sunni position, the Sunnis have played the al-Zarqawi card and literally blown something or someone up.
It is the only reliable card that they have had to play, and they have played it often and to great effect. The Sunnis have also known that if their position within the new Iraqi government is to be formalized and cemented, they will have to rein in al-Zarqawi and his jihadist allies. If they do not, there is no deal.
It strikes Stratfor as far more than a coincidence that within hours of the confirmation of al-Zarqawi's death, the Iraqi Parliament put the finishing touches on the new Iraqi government. Baghdad now sports an internationally acceptable, domestically chosen government that includes participation from all of the major sectarian groups.
Al-Zarqawi was attacked by two F-16s, each of which dropped a 500-pound bomb, not by a Hellfire missile launched from a Predator drone. Predators are dual intelligence gathering/assassination tools. Pairs of F-16s are more likely to be used when there is pre-existing intelligence that results in a tasking. U.S. forces selected their weapon very carefully to be low on fragmentation or fire to maximize the chances of the quick recovery of an easily identifiable corpse. Al-Zarqawi was not found, he was sold out. A political deal was made, and the Sunnis have delivered on their end.
The only question remaining is how many other jihadists have 500-pound bombs in their immediate future?
The next steps are simple (compared to the chaos of the past two years). First, with the Iraqi situation seemingly on its way to resolution, the stage is set for a rapprochement between the United States and Iran. This is likely far further along than anyone realizes. The key sticking point in the relationship for the United States is not the nuclear question, but the future of Iraq. Iran, simply put, does not want to be invaded by Iraq again. With a government in place and al-Zarqawi dead, logic dictates that the Americans and the Iranians have already had their meeting of the minds. The rest is punctuation.
Second, international oil companies have been waiting for two things before investing in the Iraqi oil complex: a domestically chosen, internationally acceptable representative government, and an end to the insurgency. The first has happened; the second may finally be in sight. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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who is to say someone won't step into his place? I'm sure he had a few assistants who will be happy to take over. Perhaps one of those assistants was sick of him, so he sold him out. Who is to say the one who sold him out won't take the 25 million bucks and fuel even more terrorism?
Why would this really slow down the insurgency? you think the sunnis are that weak? Give me a break. They'll just say, "it's his followers who are out to get revenge for what the Americans did!" or some crap like that. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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Just how much of an impact Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death will have on the ongoing insurgency in Iraq remains unclear. But everyone agrees that the insurgency is not going away.
President Bush, speaking in the Rose Garden this morning, said, "Zarqawi's death is a severe blow to al-Qaida. It is a significant victory in the global war on terror."
But the president quickly cautioned that there are tough days still ahead in Iraq. The sentiment was echoed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
"There will be fierce attempts," Blair said, "with the formation of the government, with the death of al-Zarqawi, to fight back."
A Multifaceted Insurgency
The insurgency is not a single-headed beast, but rather a loose affiliation of many different groups that rarely act in a coordinated way.
Zarqawi was certainly seen as the leader of the foreign fighters in Iraq. The U.S. military says that al-Qaida in Iraq has been responsible for the vast majority of spectacular attacks on civilians in Iraq. That includes the bombing of a significant Shi'ite mosque in Samarra in February that set off the current round of sectarian violence that plagues the country.
The far larger insurgency, however, is not foreign, but is made up of Iraqis.
Sunni Arabs, some of whom were members of the former regime under Saddam Hussein, see their struggle as a resistance to a foreign occupation. That insurgency is much more fractured than al-Qaida, with no unifying leader.
There have been signs of tension between Iraqis and foreign fighters, with one viewing their cause as a nationalistic struggle, the other as a grand jihad against the West.
But Zarwqawi was certainly a charismatic leader and masterful propagandist, with frequent Web postings of his speeches and highly produced recruitment videos.
Retired Maj. General Robert Scales said Thursday that while the indigenous insurgency will continue for some time, it will be far less organized without Zarqawi.
"Once you get below Zarqawi's level, the degree of skill begins to fall off precipitously," Scales said.
A Coup for U.S. Intelligence
Even so, Scales cautioned that an insurgency is defined not just by the person at the top, but by an entire network.
And that, says Scales, is one of the most important aspects of Zarqawi's death. It's not just that he and some of his top lieutenants are dead; it's that somebody -- probably somebody close the insurgency -- told someone where Zarqawi was.
The intelligence that will be gathered from computers and files on the scene could give great insight into how al-Qaida, and perhaps the indigenous insurgency, are organized and run.
But the insurgency is not going away after Zarqawi's demise. Neither is the escalating death toll, which usually claims about 1,200 people a month in Baghdad alone. When asked about that figure Thursday, Prime Minister Blair said, "This isn't going to change with the death of al-Zarqawi. We should not have any illusions about this."
And an Internet statement from Zarqawi's group said, "The death of our leaders is life for us. It will only increase our persistence in continuing holy war so that the word of God will be supreme." |
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5460517 |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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Al-Zarqawi Chronology
One of the world's most-wanted terrorists, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed Wednesday in a U.S. airstrike in a remote area 30 miles northeast of Baghdad. Key events in his life:
Early Life
-- Born Oct. 20, 1966 as Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalayleh
-- Rose from tough street life in Jordanian industrial town of
Zarqa
-- Solidified Islamic radical ideology in Jordanian prison in
late 1990s
Affiliation with Bin Laden
-- Released in 1999 from a Jordanian prison in an amnesty
-- Went to Afghanistan in 1999, where he formed links with Osama bin Laden
-- Fled during U.S.-led war that ousted the Taliban in late 2001
Militant Leadership
-- Name emerges in 2003 as leader of "Monotheism and Holy War"
-- In 2004, group announces allegiance to al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden
-- Changes name of group to "al-Qaida in Iraq"
-- Bin Laden endorses al-Zarqawi as his deputy in Iraq
Terrorist Claims
-- His group claims two August 2003 blasts, seen as start of Iraq insurgency
-- Attack against U.N. headquarters in Baghdad that killed 22 people
-- Attack against Shiite shrine in Najaf that killed more than 85
-- Believed to have personally beheaded American hostages
Nicholas Berg in April 2004 and Eugene Armstrong in September 2004. |
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5459826 |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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[deleted]
Last edited by Gopher on Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:33 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
who is to say someone won't step into his place? I'm sure he had a few assistants who will be happy to take over. Perhaps one of those assistants was sick of him, so he sold him out. Who is to say the one who sold him out won't take the 25 million bucks and fuel even more terrorism?
Why would this really slow down the insurgency? you think the sunnis are that weak? Give me a break. They'll just say, "it's his followers who are out to get revenge for what the Americans did!" or some crap like that. |
Well, Stratfor gets money from US corps for its intelligence services, and I've noticed that, whenever possible, they'll reach the most optimistic conclusion from the US perspective.
Be that as it may, as the titular head it's likely he personally directed a fair amount of funds , supplies , strategy etc.
And I think Stratfor has a very good point on the precision, timing, and method of the attack. This is along the lines of what they predicted a couple of weeks ago (or, pessimistically, they are spinning their analysis of this event to make it look like it's something they predicted a few weeks ago. If you want the primary sources, they're all in the podcasts). |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| who is to say someone won't step into his place? |
Or better still, who is to say American won't soon thrust someone else into his place. America always has the "worse than Hitler" demon to chase.
But yeah, until you get all these people good jobs, electricity, and water, this hydra isn't going to die. Bush's "turning point" sound bite is foolish. Israel has been blowing up terrorist leaders for half a century and it has not solved anything. You kill the father, you'll soon have to kill the son... |
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Bulsajo
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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Well there's more to it than that if Stratfor is right and it's Sunnis selling out their insurgency. Same thing need sto happen in Basra with the Shiite insurgency. Stratfor said that right now- these few weeks- really are 'the turning point' because either this new tripartite government will work and they'll start bring the violence under control, or it won't and they won't. The time-table they give is mid-July, by then (according to them) it'll be obvious whether or not this govt can function. At that point they'll be some sort of US exit Strategy, either "Congrats, we're done here." or "It's now obvious it really is a civil war so there's nothing more we can do- goodbye."
Anyway, that's what they've consistenly been saying for the last couple of months. So is Zarqawi just a lucky strike? Well then it's not going to change much. But if it's the start of a sign of things to come, then it's a pretty clear and dramatic announcement of a sea change.
I guess we'll have to see how it pans out in the next few weeks. |
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