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Likely scenarios in event of attack on Seoul?
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Mikejelai



Joined: 01 Nov 2009
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:50 pm    Post subject: Likely scenarios in event of attack on Seoul? Reply with quote

Yes, I know that the various embassies have evacuation plans in place for their citizens but I question how well these would actually work in reality. I mean, consider the likelihood that cell phone service and electricity would probably be cut, TV and radio transmitters would likely be off the air (AFN anyway), many roads impassable, chaos among the locals, embassy staff quickly fleeing aboard US army helicopters (like in Saigon at the end of the Vietnam war), the US army installations ablaze in a sea of flame (heaven forbid!), etc. After all, war IS hell!

I'm thinking it would be every man for himself, and the best bet would be to cross the Han river (by bridge or by swimming if necessary - damn, that would be some cold water!) and heading toward Pusan (hmmm, sounds historically familiar, no?).

Sounds a bit like "The Road" doesn't it? What would be the safest and fastest route to Pusan? Just head down the interstate highway (gridlock Hell or worse) or take to the backroads? How long would it likely take on foot? 7-10 days? Possibility of scavenging food along the way? Would the Korean banks freeze all accounts immediately?

I don't mean to sound paranoid or anything; just thinking, that's all. And remember the Boy Scout motto- "Be Prepared"
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victorology



Joined: 10 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They should do a Man vs. Wild episode of Bear trying to get to Busan from Seoul
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diver



Joined: 16 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

victorology wrote:
They should do a Man vs. Wild episode of Bear trying to get to Busan from Seoul...


...during Chuseok, never mind a war.

If it hits without enough warning to actually leave the country, I am going to stay put. I am fairly south of Seoul. The last place I want to be is out in the open on the roads...
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Mikejelai



Joined: 01 Nov 2009
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Exactly; remember the gruesome road carnage footage from the Iraq war? The one where hundreds of cars (including drivers and passengers) were attacked while fleeing Baghdad, I believe(?)................ Not that I think North Korea has the ability to get many planes through all the missiles/ack ack/ US and South Korean jets and attack helicopters, etc. Just saying.............
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decolyon



Joined: 24 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Recently I saw a page on the US embassy website that had two evacuation points for Americans. Both just south of the Han and on either end of the city. But I tried to go there just now and the link is redirected, which makes me think they may be rethinking their own evacuation plans since they probably haven't been updated in a while.

So, being the nerd that I am, I decided to open up Google Earth and plan my own way out.

Step 1: If you're in city center or just East of center and not too far North, your best bet is to get on the Tancheon and head South. The Tancheon is tributary of the Han. The roads on either side of it were designed to be big enough to support bikes, jeeps, and military equipment in case of war. It will lead you directly to Seoul Air Base. This is your first opportunity to get a ride out. But considering the air base may be on lock down mode, you'll have to continue to follow the Tancheon South. Remember Bear Grills says to find water and stick with it. I'm only about 5 miles from Seoul AB by way of the Tan and could knock this out in no time. Especially by bike, but also by foot. Note: I have myself, personally walked 8 miles in an afternoon. But that was in the dead of summer and I was wearing flip flops. Given that, with proper shoes and my own ability to function better in cooler weather, 10 or 12 miles a day on foot seems certainly reasonable

Given my own location (South East edge of Seoul) I could comfortably get to Bundang in my first day. That's roughly 10 miles. Some say you could do more, but this is a marathon, not a sprint. You're going to need to give your body time to rest and recover as well as scout safe locations to sleep for the night and possibly raid a GS25 for rations.

Day 2: Rise and shine. The bombs are beginning to fall and commies are one the horizon. Drop your c*ck and grab your socks, it's off to Suwon we go!

Day two will find you following the same routine much of the time you did on day one. Stick with the Tan and keep heading South. Eventually you'll hit the Northern tip of Yongin. Time to say goodbye to Tan, because this is where he ends. Near the Tan basin, is a large and hard to miss 6 lane overpass (if it hasn't been blown to smithereens by now.) Just East of this overpass is Suwon Country Club. We're mainly going to use SCC as a landmark to know we're on the right direction. We're going to cut through the golf course and cross the highway. Should be easy as either traffic will be backed up for miles or all the cars have been shelled. Here we'll be at another golf course that is adjacent to the folk village. No time for picture taking, as we've got to jump over the highway and settle on the South East corner of Suwon city, near the Shingal Reservoir (looks like a big lake and will be the largest body of war anywhere near you.) Make camp and call it a night. Another solid 10 miles under our belt and a big day ahead tomorrow.

Day 3: By this point, Seoul is empty and the war is raging somewhere along the 38th. Probably no nukes at this point, but artillery has already rained down on Itaewon. So long old friend. You start your day by finding the loan tributary on the South end of the Shingal Res.. Can't be hard to find, it's marked by a mini-dam. Follow this stream South and in just a short 2 or 3 hours it will turn into the Osancheon. The river-like stream the runs through Osan city. Stop and gather rations if you must, but we're only halfway done for the day. The Osancheon cuts right through Osan and then continues South. About 4 miles outside of the city is Osan Air Base. This is your next big chance to catch a free flight to the Land of the Rising Sun courtesy of Uncle Sam. Considering the size of Osan AB I find it hard to believe there wont be some set up there to process American civilians and get them to safety. But just for kicks and giggles, we're going to continue on this journey to Pusan. Those installments to come later. I need sleep now and my eyes hurt. Good night.
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rumdiary



Joined: 05 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

decolyon wrote:
Recently I saw a page on the US embassy website that had two evacuation points for Americans. Both just south of the Han and on either end of the city. But I tried to go there just now and the link is redirected, which makes me think they may be rethinking their own evacuation plans since they probably haven't been updated in a while.

So, being the nerd that I am, I decided to open up Google Earth and plan my own way out.

Step 1: If you're in city center or just East of center and not too far North, your best bet is to get on the Tancheon and head South. The Tancheon is tributary of the Han. The roads on either side of it were designed to be big enough to support bikes, jeeps, and military equipment in case of war. It will lead you directly to Seoul Air Base. This is your first opportunity to get a ride out. But considering the air base may be on lock down mode, you'll have to continue to follow the Tancheon South. Remember Bear Grills says to find water and stick with it. I'm only about 5 miles from Seoul AB by way of the Tan and could knock this out in no time. Especially by bike, but also by foot. Note: I have myself, personally walked 8 miles in an afternoon. But that was in the dead of summer and I was wearing flip flops. Given that, with proper shoes and my own ability to function better in cooler weather, 10 or 12 miles a day on foot seems certainly reasonable

Given my own location (South East edge of Seoul) I could comfortably get to Bundang in my first day. That's roughly 10 miles. Some say you could do more, but this is a marathon, not a sprint. You're going to need to give your body time to rest and recover as well as scout safe locations to sleep for the night and possibly raid a GS25 for rations.

Day 2: Rise and shine. The bombs are beginning to fall and commies are one the horizon. Drop your c*ck and grab your socks, it's off to Suwon we go!

Day two will find you following the same routine much of the time you did on day one. Stick with the Tan and keep heading South. Eventually you'll hit the Northern tip of Yongin. Time to say goodbye to Tan, because this is where he ends. Near the Tan basin, is a large and hard to miss 6 lane overpass (if it hasn't been blown to smithereens by now.) Just East of this overpass is Suwon Country Club. We're mainly going to use SCC as a landmark to know we're on the right direction. We're going to cut through the golf course and cross the highway. Should be easy as either traffic will be backed up for miles or all the cars have been shelled. Here we'll be at another golf course that is adjacent to the folk village. No time for picture taking, as we've got to jump over the highway and settle on the South East corner of Suwon city, near the Shingal Reservoir (looks like a big lake and will be the largest body of war anywhere near you.) Make camp and call it a night. Another solid 10 miles under our belt and a big day ahead tomorrow.

Day 3: By this point, Seoul is empty and the war is raging somewhere along the 38th. Probably no nukes at this point, but artillery has already rained down on Itaewon. So long old friend. You start your day by finding the loan tributary on the South end of the Shingal Res.. Can't be hard to find, it's marked by a mini-dam. Follow this stream South and in just a short 2 or 3 hours it will turn into the Osancheon. The river-like stream the runs through Osan city. Stop and gather rations if you must, but we're only halfway done for the day. The Osancheon cuts right through Osan and then continues South. About 4 miles outside of the city is Osan Air Base. This is your next big chance to catch a free flight to the Land of the Rising Sun courtesy of Uncle Sam. Considering the size of Osan AB I find it hard to believe there wont be some set up there to process American civilians and get them to safety. But just for kicks and giggles, we're going to continue on this journey to Pusan. Those installments to come later. I need sleep now and my eyes hurt. Good night.
Well done, Dwight.
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UknowsI



Joined: 16 Apr 2009

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I can't understand is that none of my friends know the location of any bomb shelters. Bomb shelters seems like the most natural solution for civilians. In my home country there are bomb shelters everywhere even though there have been no signs of war since WW2. We even have evacuation drills at school, therefore I am surprised I haven't heard anything about it here.
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silkhighway



Joined: 24 Oct 2010
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even a few strategic shells landing near Seoul and I seriously couldn't imagine the potential chaos. 20 some million people going in every direction, military convoys trying to manoeuvre through mass crowds of civilians, roadblocks everywhere, no power, no telephones, severe shortage of food and drinking water, everyone looking for information and supplies and nobody having any. One police or military officer will tell you to do one thing or go one direction and another will tell you to do another.

In the South, people will run the bank and start hoarding any supplies they can find. The Red Cross and the government will scramble to get food and water to the Northern refugees (Seoulites) but will be overwhelmed by the sheer numbers.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back in the 90's when Clinton was 'eh' close to attacking NK, Koreans were seriously worried. They made a run on rice, you couldn't buy bags of rice anywhere. So if Koreans start buying bags of rice on mass, thats when you should consider making an exit plan.
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WilliamThomas



Joined: 11 Nov 2010

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Considering the size of Osan AB I find it hard to believe there wont be some set up there to process American civilians and get them to safety.


What about me I'm British, do you think they'd let me on the ride out, you know 'special friendship' and all, or am I in all sorts of trouble?
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silkhighway



Joined: 24 Oct 2010
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jvalmer wrote:
Back in the 90's when Clinton was 'eh' close to attacking NK, Koreans were seriously worried. They made a run on rice, you couldn't buy bags of rice anywhere. So if Koreans start buying bags of rice on mass, thats when you should consider making an exit plan.


I think it's a good time to make an emergency (not necessarily 'exit') plan *before* the panic happens. It would not be very fun waiting in a line for hours with thousands of panicky desperate people for a bag of rice and a bottle of water.

I'd say good preparation right now is to have a good hiking backpack, shortwave radio, a flashlight, extra batteries, basic medical kit, sewing kit, warm waterproof clothes and blanket or sleeping bag, knife, and and enough non-perishable high-energy food and water to last you a couple of days, and some hard currency (not too much, or you'll just be robbed.). Also to register with your embassies websites and check where they suggest to go in case of an emergency. Otherwise, in the case you need to evacuate, head south and very very likely, follow the crowd.


Last edited by silkhighway on Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:15 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Mariella713



Joined: 22 May 2010

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WilliamThomas wrote:
Quote:
Considering the size of Osan AB I find it hard to believe there wont be some set up there to process American civilians and get them to safety.


What about me I'm British, do you think they'd let me on the ride out, you know 'special friendship' and all, or am I in all sorts of trouble?



...special friendship....Britain...US....?
HAHAHAHAHHA.


The British Embassy have their own little evacuation plan for British nationals in case of a crisis in Korea. Their prefered destination to head for in this case is Japan (even if not there, it will be a country near by Korea), so make sure you bring your chopsticks along. Basically, the British Embassy sends you an email or they broadcast it on the radio when they think it would be best to evacuate (101.3MHz - Seoul, 90.5MHz - Pusan, 98.7MHz - Kwangju)
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mikejelai wrote:
Exactly; remember the gruesome road carnage footage from the Iraq war? The one where hundreds of cars (including drivers and passengers) were attacked while fleeing Baghdad, I believe(?)................ Not that I think North Korea has the ability to get many planes through all the missiles/ack ack/ US and South Korean jets and attack helicopters, etc. Just saying.............


Right because back in the Gulf War Saddam was able to get hordes of planes through and bomb Riyadh. And Riyadh is still recovering from the massive damage inflicted by the SCUDs.

Rolling Eyes

Here's a plan- chill out in a subway or a basement for 72 hours and then go back to life as normal. Be amazed at how Seoul isn't completely leveled. Yes there is some damage but get this- London got repeatedly bombed over the course of several months and life went on. Israel gets rockets and mortars lobbed at it in varying intensities and life goes on. Belgrade, Sarajevo, Kuwait City, New Orleans, even Baghdad still keep on truckin.

You're probably more likely to die getting run over by some panicky driver who is also fleeing everything or die in some accident while trying to be all Grizzly Adams with your survival kit and everything. "Oh yeah matches....I forgot those...brrrrr...."

If you have kids I understand, but seriously panic breeds panic and no the crack North Korean legions of doom won't be pouring through Seoul.

It'd take almost all of their strength just to hold and occupy Greater Seoul. They can't afford that. Seoul would be an anchor. Great 10-20 million potential urban guerrillas. North Korea isn't dumb, they know that to take and occupy that city would mean the defeat of its army.


Last edited by Steelrails on Thu Nov 25, 2010 3:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Xylox



Joined: 09 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If a war breaks out, my biggest worry is all those douchebag elementary kids who said "You die!" to us turned out to be right.
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silkhighway



Joined: 24 Oct 2010
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelRails, you're more of an optimist than I am. North Korea has the largest artillery force in the world, and all virtually in range of Seoul. They have repeatedly made threats they would flatten Seoul in an full-out escalation and I don't see why they wouldn't make due on their word considering the importance of Seoul both symbollically and practically. We can debate all day about the rationality of it, but it's making sense of the senseless, and civil war is usually senseless and very very ugly. The best possible outcome is to avoid it altogether.

Ok, If war breaks out I don't exactly think Seoul will be turned into a parking lot. However I do think North Korea is certainly capable and almost certainly will inflict enough damage to it that it becomes a humanitarian crisis considering a couple stray shells in populated neighbourhoods like Nowon will leave thousand homeless.
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