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R. S. Refugee
Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK
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 Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:00 pm Post subject: By 2024 the US will be a has-been country. |
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Thinking about earning a decent living in your home country sometime? Good luck. You'll need it if the home country is the USA.
Americans feel prosperous because they are consuming $700 billion annually more than they are producing.
Welcome to a Has-Been Country
The US Labor Force: One Foot in the Third World
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts06032005.html |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:10 pm Post subject: |
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Daniel Drezner
http://www.danieldrezner.com/blog/
Answers it all
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, May 27, 2005
The latest on offshore outsourcing
Ted Balaker and Adrian Moore have written a lengthy report for the Reason Foundation entitled "Offshoring and Public Fear: Assessing the Real Threat to Jobs." Click here or a more concise summary of the report. Nut sentence: "Outsourcing is not a newly created threat to jobs. It is merely a version of trade, and like previous versions of trade it brings some pain뾟ut it brings even more promise."
One anecdote that's given as an example of how offshoring saves and even creates jobs:
Offshore outsouring also helped Donaldson Co. Inc., a Minnestota-based technology components company. Facing competition from overseas manufacturers with much lower prices, Donaldson shifted production to China. The design work stayed with its American team of engineers, chemists, and designers. Offshoring production helped increase Donaldson뭩 U.S.-based employment by 400 employees since 1990. What if the company had refused to go offshore? 밯e뭗 be out of business,?says an executive.
[Sure, but what about the jobs that will be destroyed in, say, the financial sector?--ed. Hmmm.... let's check out this Silicon.com report by Andy McCue:
Two-thirds of financial services firms still have no plans to outsource any operations to low-cost overseas countries such as India, according to a new report.
But the worldwide study of 400 IT directors by analyst Datamonitor found those banking firms which have already used offshore outsourcing are planning to increase the scope of it and extend it to more complex and core financial services processes.
Anders Maehre, financial services technology analyst at Datamonitor and author of the study, told silicon.com there is an increasing polarisation in the banking industry between firms which choose to offshore and those that don't.
"The vast majority of companies will not consider offshore for anything. But two-thirds to three-quarters of those who already do offshore plan to increase it, so the logical conclusion is that some of the fears these firms have don't materialise and they do experience benefits," he said.
Only about a fifth of financial services firms are currently using offshore outsourcing and another 15 per cent said they are likely to go down that route in the near future, while the rest said they are "completely unlikely" to use overseas resources, according to Datamonitor's figures.
But the figures can be slightly misleading if not put into context: most of the big global financial institutions make up that small number of firms which are offshoring.
So there's a complex trend going on -- some big firms are increasing activity, but almost all small firms are not. My hunch is that the overall effect on employment is a wash.]
Meanwhile, a new book coming out suggests that estimates of jobs lost from offshoring are both exaggerated and reversible:
Douglas Brown and Scott Wilson, authors of "The Black Book of Outsourcing," say many executives they've interviewed are reconsidering offshoring because of the high price of fuel and airfare, management challenges, customer complaints and the increasing cost of labor in foreign technology hubs such as Bangalore, India, and a simultaneous lowering of some white-collar salaries in the United States.
By 2015, Brown and Wilson say, the United States will likely rank as the No. 3 destination for outsourced work, behind only China and India.
"Offshoring undoubtedly offers significant financial benefits for companies across a wide range of fields and sizes," Wilson said. "Undertaking such a venture, however, requires a cost-benefit analysis that includes downsides such as political instability, language and cultural barriers and time-zone differences."
Instead of farming out work to countries a dozen time zones away, Wilson said, many U.S. companies are looking for relatively low-cost destinations closer to home, including Canada, Mexico and South America. He terms it "nearshoring."
Click on this paper by Scott Noble to see some reasons why offshoring fails. |
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Derrek
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| It's survival of the fittest. US Ref has already proven himself unfit. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| I appreciate the skepticism about the United States economy, but it's the unwarranted optimism concerning other economies that I remain wary of. I am also not convinced by the idea that one economy can only gain by the loss of another. Tell you what, R.S., if productivity falls in the US, I'll worry, but I don't think that not producing physical things is necessarily a grave weakness of the economy. |
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R. S. Refugee
Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK
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| Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| I appreciate the skepticism about the United States economy, but it's the unwarranted optimism concerning other economies that I remain wary of. I am also not convinced by the idea that one economy can only gain by the loss of another. Tell you what, R.S., if productivity falls in the US, I'll worry, but I don't think that not producing physical things is necessarily a grave weakness of the economy. |
Read more carefully. It wasn't just physical things, Kuros. It was any tradable goods AND services. And how productive will the US be when $700 billion a year in borrowed money dries up? I don't know the answer, but I am curious. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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Japan and Europe run trade surpluses with the US. Who has a better future?
I guess the real concern here is China but even in this case much of what buys from China is from US companies manufacturing stuff over there.
Is it good that the US runs a trade deficit - no? (A lot of that number is energy )But there is no evidence that protectionism will ensure that the US is better off. Sometimes the medicine is worse than the sickness. |
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buymybook
Joined: 21 Feb 2005
Location: Telluride
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:31 am Post subject: Hater |
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| R. S. Refugee wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| I appreciate the skepticism about the United States economy, but it's the unwarranted optimism concerning other economies that I remain wary of. I am also not convinced by the idea that one economy can only gain by the loss of another. Tell you what, R.S., if productivity falls in the US, I'll worry, but I don't think that not producing physical things is necessarily a grave weakness of the economy. |
Read more carefully. It wasn't just physical things, Kuros. It was any tradable goods AND services. And how productive will the US be when $700 billion a year in borrowed money dries up? I don't know the answer, but I am curious. |
So, are you hater? Suppose you get what you want, who you gonna hate next? HATE! HATE! HATE! You are just like the K******, you HATER!!! |
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Big_Bird
Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:12 am Post subject: Re: Hater |
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| buymybook wrote: |
| R. S. Refugee wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| I appreciate the skepticism about the United States economy, but it's the unwarranted optimism concerning other economies that I remain wary of. I am also not convinced by the idea that one economy can only gain by the loss of another. Tell you what, R.S., if productivity falls in the US, I'll worry, but I don't think that not producing physical things is necessarily a grave weakness of the economy. |
Read more carefully. It wasn't just physical things, Kuros. It was any tradable goods AND services. And how productive will the US be when $700 billion a year in borrowed money dries up? I don't know the answer, but I am curious. |
So, are you hater? Suppose you get what you want, who you gonna hate next? HATE! HATE! HATE! You are just like the K******, you HATER!!! |
So, are you jester? Suppose you get what you want, who you gonna jest with next? JEST! JEST! JEST! You are just like Coco the C*****, you JESTER!!! |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:21 am Post subject: |
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The current path the USA is going on sure does seem like it's going to end in a nasty, nasty place. At the same time, people thought the USA was a nation in decline in 1992. (They thought this about American in 1974 and 1980 too.) But then the internet happened and Microsoft took over the world and the USA was back on top of the world.
Anyway, the USA has a way of reinventing itself when it hits bottom. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:59 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| At the same time, people thought the USA was a nation in decline in 1992. (They thought this about American in 1974 and 1980 too.) |
I've noticed the same thing, too. These predictions are more wishful thinking than rational predictions. However, if you keep predicting it often enough you'll eventually be right and then you can say, "See, all along I was right. Thank you very much."
But things are looking grim right now. Nearly all of it self-inflicted. National debt. War. Social division. Bizarre new political theory. Sometimes I think this is the only thing that gives Europeans and Canadians any reason to go on living.  |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: seoul
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:25 am Post subject: |
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America will be fine. It currently has the lowest crime rate in decades, the highest home ownership rate in history, an unemployment rate half of France's, the highest educational attainment rate in its history.....
The reason for the 700 billion deficit is mainly Asian central banks CHOOSING to put their money into American assets. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| sundubuman wrote: |
| The reason for the 700 billion deficit is mainly Asian central banks CHOOSING to put their money into American assets. |
I'm no economist, but I don't think that's the reason for the deficit - that's the reason the US can continue to run on a budget deficit, because they are allowed to finance it with their own currency which gives them an advantage on interest rates.
The reason for the deficit is because the US is spending more than it has, simple as that. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
The reason for the 700 billion deficit is mainly Asian central banks CHOOSING to put their money into American assets.
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Ummmm....Podunk University has an online Econ 101 course you might consider taking. |
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jajdude
Joined: 18 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 11:09 am Post subject: |
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2024...
I wonder will I still be around?
And if I had 10,000 dollars would i be a millionaire? |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 11:14 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
The current path the USA is going on sure does seem like it's going to end in a nasty, nasty place. At the same time, people thought the USA was a nation in decline in 1992. (They thought this about American in 1974 and 1980 too.) But then the internet happened and Microsoft took over the world and the USA was back on top of the world.
Anyway, the USA has a way of reinventing itself when it hits bottom. |
The difference this time is we're cutting back on funds for research, student visas, and various other sectors that are essential for us to continue to be trend setters.
Time will tell. In this case, I hope history repeats itself. |
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