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mr_thehorse
Joined: 27 Aug 2013
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 Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:14 am Post subject: |
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| northway wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
A strengthening U.S. dollar (which is the opposite of what conspiracy theorists radcon, guavashake, etc. predicted) means an unfavorable exchange rate for ESL teaching anywhere in the world.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar losing its value (due to a decline in oil prices maybe?) means better exchange rates for Canadians sending money back home from anywhere abroad. |
Theoretically, couldn't an expat pursue a locally-based investment strategy that purchased local or other non-US stocks in the local currency, so as to avoid the currency hit? Most EFL teachers seem to think that "investing" means stuffing gold under your mattress, but I'm curious whether this might be a good way for people to ride out an unfavorable exchange rate. I'd also think that a weak won means that Korean companies, particularly chaebols, are lined up to do pretty well, so there could be dual benefits to this. Am I overlooking a fatal flaw in this strategy? |
your idea is correct right. implementation is the hard part. here is a chart overlay of the KOSPI and the USD/KRW pair.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^KS11+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A%222y%22%2C%22lineType%22%3A%22candlestick%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A{%22KRWUSD%3DX%22%3A{%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1}}} |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| northway wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
A strengthening U.S. dollar (which is the opposite of what conspiracy theorists radcon, guavashake, etc. predicted) means an unfavorable exchange rate for ESL teaching anywhere in the world.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar losing its value (due to a decline in oil prices maybe?) means better exchange rates for Canadians sending money back home from anywhere abroad. |
Theoretically, couldn't an expat pursue a locally-based investment strategy that purchased local or other non-US stocks in the local currency, so as to avoid the currency hit? Most EFL teachers seem to think that "investing" means stuffing gold under your mattress, but I'm curious whether this might be a good way for people to ride out an unfavorable exchange rate. I'd also think that a weak won means that Korean companies, particularly chaebols, are lined up to do pretty well, so there could be dual benefits to this. Am I overlooking a fatal flaw in this strategy? |
But the Kospi ebbs and flows with the world economy and lately with the Fed and its anticipated moves. So if you invest in Korea and spend in Korea you might be able to avoid specific currency risk, but you are losing the benefits of diversity and thus may be taking on a greater risk.
A weak won is relative since the dollar has strengthened against the currencies of other exporters as well. That Samsung just froze salaries would not make me optimistic regarding the chaebols.
As for "riding it out," who knows when it's going to strengthen? A weak won seems to be the one consistent policy of the conservatives. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| mr_thehorse wrote: |
| northway wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
A strengthening U.S. dollar (which is the opposite of what conspiracy theorists radcon, guavashake, etc. predicted) means an unfavorable exchange rate for ESL teaching anywhere in the world.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar losing its value (due to a decline in oil prices maybe?) means better exchange rates for Canadians sending money back home from anywhere abroad. |
Theoretically, couldn't an expat pursue a locally-based investment strategy that purchased local or other non-US stocks in the local currency, so as to avoid the currency hit? Most EFL teachers seem to think that "investing" means stuffing gold under your mattress, but I'm curious whether this might be a good way for people to ride out an unfavorable exchange rate. I'd also think that a weak won means that Korean companies, particularly chaebols, are lined up to do pretty well, so there could be dual benefits to this. Am I overlooking a fatal flaw in this strategy? |
your idea is correct right. implementation is the hard part. here is a chart overlay of the KOSPI and the USD/KRW pair.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^KS11+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A%222y%22%2C%22lineType%22%3A%22candlestick%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A{%22KRWUSD%3DX%22%3A{%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1}}} |
It's not about investment strategies. It's about debt repayment obligations that must be met. Themore the won is worth, the quicker this can be done. The lower the won, the longer it wi take. The Canadian rate from 2008 to 2013 is the same as what the Americans are getting now. It took too long. |
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Fallacy
Joined: 29 Jun 2015
Location: ex-ROK
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Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:40 am Post subject: |
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New predictions do i hear 1250?
Yes 1250 it is |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:29 am Post subject: |
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| jackson7 wrote: |
These threads, like most on Dave's, occur quite predictably, and cyclically. Take a quick peak at historical data and foreign exchange analysis regarding the won against the American dollar:
10 years: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD}&to=KRW&view=10Y
5 years: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD}&to=KRW&view=5Y
In general, a downward (stronger won) trend with peaks of intervention/North Korean madness/policy change. Most international institutions have been writing that the won has been severely undervalued. I think there are few economists with advanced degrees on this board that are actually working in their field, and could offer us a better understanding, but knowing Dave's, it would be shot down pretty darn quick, or lost within the muck and flaming.
J7 |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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Park Hyung-joong, an economist at Daishin Securities, said that raising the U.S. rate would put emerging economies at higher risk, since many of them are now reliant on borrowings.
“The Korean market is very vulnerable to external risks,” Park said. “The upward change in the U.S. rate will multiply emerging market risks, which will lead to rapid foreign capital outflow and cause the Korean won to depreciate.”
Park forecast the Korean won’s value against the U.S. dollar could surge to 1,300 won by mid-2016.
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=3012734 |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 3:30 am Post subject: |
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Chinese currency aside, things are just getting back to historical norms. The US dollar is rising, but Chinese money is also increasing in value. Might be a good time to go teach in China. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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Eff yeah!!! About time Cdn dollar went back to normal levels. A year after i get over here, the exchange starts falling. The Won goes down and the Dollar rises. I get here at the end of the curve. Damn luck! At least it's getting good again. I should have had my debt paid off eyars ago, but am only now on the verge of it. This new exchange rate helps a lot. |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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Anyone have any idea where the Aussie is headed against the Won?
Everyone says it's going to fall but it never does. I'm still waiting for the forecasted 0.65 against the dollar. 
I already knew the Won is a shitty reserve currency, but this really stinks. |
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