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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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 Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: |
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I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
Clinton is clearly the Democrat most likely to lose the general and most likely to win by a tiny margin. She would reinvigorate and reunify a Republican party that is currently tearing its coalition apart. Nominating her is very dumb. But then again the Dems have never been known for their political acumen. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
Clinton is clearly the Democrat most likely to lose the general and most likely to win by a tiny margin. She would reinvigorate and reunify a Republican party that is currently tearing its coalition apart. Nominating her is very dumb. But then again the Dems have never been known for their political acumen. |
tru dat. The dems are doing a good job in screwing this golden opportunity up. You know something is up when netural dem. leaders are telling the clintons to back off the negative crap. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: |
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I regret registering as a Republican now. Had I known what ugly crap would come out of the Democratic race, I would have stayed registered as one so I could do my part in getting rid of Hillary. I hope I don't have to wait until November to do so. 
Knowing my luck, Giulliani will pull of a miracle and win the GOP nomination, and I'll be stuck with him and Hillary. What a stomach-churning idea there. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 1:11 am Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
Matchup polls are useless this far in advance of an election. In 2004, one of Kerry's main arguments for the nomination was his lead over the other Democratic candidates in matchup polls. We saw how that one worked out.
The best predictor of candidate performance is how people feel about the candidate. All general elections ultimately come down to undecided voters picking the lesser of two evils -- most of them are "undecided" precisely because they don't really like either candidate. Ask an independent who voted for Bush in 2004 whether he really liked the guy, or just disliked him less than he disliked Kerry. I'll give you odds on what he'll say.
Hillary's negatives are the highest of any Democratic candidate. Eight months of campaigning will push them higher -- in her case, particularly, because we know the Republicans have ammunition. The argument that Whitewater, Lewinsky, etc. "wouldn't work twice" is naive. It will work twice, and Hillary will get trounced, probably getting less than 45% of the popular vote. |
That's one of my concerns, is that this election will become the lessor of the two evils and who knows what will happen then. Those who belong to the Camp Hillary seem to not worry at all about her electablity factor and think she's going to have a cake walk because a) she would be the first female president and b) she is the D nominee. What's going to be funny is watching their faces when it doesn't turn out that way. The same people also are totally blind to the fact that you can't run a divisive nasty primary campaign and then pretend it didn't happen.
Last edited by Milwaukiedave on Sat Jan 26, 2008 1:16 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 1:13 am Post subject: |
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| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
Clinton is clearly the Democrat most likely to lose the general and most likely to win by a tiny margin. She would reinvigorate and reunify a Republican party that is currently tearing its coalition apart. Nominating her is very dumb. But then again the Dems have never been known for their political acumen. |
Again, this is something Camp Hillary doesn't care about. It's all about tearing up your opponent. You can't be for change and spew the same old crap. It doesnt' work that way.
HD, if I were you, I'd just take a good long look at the Republicans and vote your conscience and not worry about it. In hindsight, there's no way you could have known this would happen. Likely whoever wins the R nominee is going to beat Hillary in the fall, so you might as well jump on their bandwagon now rather then later. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
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Obama and Clinton are clones on the issues. Their environmental plans have the same numbers.
You always backed Obama, so it does not surprise me that you view the campaign this way. Obama got a free-ride attacking Clinton all the way until Iowa, and she turned back and hit hard.
Obama's vulnerable. If he can't beat Clinton, he can't win on the national stage. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: |
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Kuros, you're miscalculating there. The voter dynamics change between a primary and general election. If hillary wins the nomination, the young voter turnout will significantly lower in November and a lot of independents who might have voted for Obama will stay home or vote for the GOP candidate.
If Obama wins, the young voter turnout will be higher, nearly all of which will be in Obama's favor. In addition, he appeals to more independents than Hillary does. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
Kuros, you're miscalculating there. The voter dynamics change between a primary and general election. If hillary wins the nomination, the young voter turnout will significantly lower in November and a lot of independents who might have voted for Obama will stay home or vote for the GOP candidate.
If Obama wins, the young voter turnout will be higher, nearly all of which will be in Obama's favor. In addition, he appeals to more independents than Hillary does. |
There are several other factors that come into play.
1) Courting independents is one way to win an election. Another is to appeal to the base.
2) Independents have turned against the GOP. Many independents will favor a Democratic nominee from the outright.
3) Hillary will sweep the independent woman vote, half of the independent vote. Its more likely that she will split even.
4) If Obama can't beat Hillary, why should he be the nominee? This is a trial, a semi-final. Hillary is a spectacular politician. If she has such disadvantages, than shouldn't Obama be able to beat her?
5) If Obama matches up against McCain, he might lose the elderly vote. That is a substantial vote, especially in swing-state Florida
6) African-Americans are not going to vote Republican, but Hispanics might. Another factor to consider in swing-state Florida.
I think you have some strong arguments, but its hardly the end of the conversation. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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some good points but #3? Come on.. You are overestimating Hillary's appeal to women. Some of the most anti-hillary people I know are females. My mom, a person who has NEVER voted for a republican to be President, would vote for McCain instead of Hillary.
And #2, I think you'll be surprised how many people are also turned off by Hillary. While I concede Romney would most likely lose to Hillary, I don't think it is such a sure thing with McCain. His "straight-talk" would be a stark contrast to Hillary's evasiveness.
Question is: if Bloomberg enters the race, who will that hurt more? The GOP or Dems? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| If Obama wins, the young voter turnout will be higher, nearly all of which will be in Obama's favor. In addition, he appeals to more independents than Hillary does. |
This is true, as far as it goes, but doesn't go nearly far enough. I'd like to add something to the good points Kuros made. There are substantial differences between McCain and Clinton. If a person can switch from the Democrats with Clinton heading the ticket to McCain, then that person is not voting the issues, s/he is voting personality. They would be voting for a continuence of the borrow and spend, interventionist policies of the present administration. |
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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
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Obama and Clinton are clones on the issues. Their environmental plans have the same numbers.
You always backed Obama, so it does not surprise me that you view the campaign this way. Obama got a free-ride attacking Clinton all the way until Iowa, and she turned back and hit hard.
Obama's vulnerable. If he can't beat Clinton, he can't win on the national stage. |
I agree that he is vulnerable. I have no problem with Clinton attacking him. What I have a problem with is the way she is doing it. Before Nevada I would have had no problem voting for her in the general and now I will not. If she is the nominee I will vote write-in or stay home. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Hater Depot wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
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Obama and Clinton are clones on the issues. Their environmental plans have the same numbers.
You always backed Obama, so it does not surprise me that you view the campaign this way. Obama got a free-ride attacking Clinton all the way until Iowa, and she turned back and hit hard.
Obama's vulnerable. If he can't beat Clinton, he can't win on the national stage. |
I agree that he is vulnerable. I have no problem with Clinton attacking him. What I have a problem with is the way she is doing it. Before Nevada I would have had no problem voting for her in the general and now I will not. If she is the nominee I will vote write-in or stay home. |
Really?
So I guess universal health care, expanded funds for education, investment in alternative energy, and serious initiatives to fight global warming should be set aside even though Hillary champions them, too.
*shrugs* |
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Hater Depot
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Nobody is going to get my vote just by putting on a suit and saying, "hi, I'm a Democrat!" It's not something she has a right to. |
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Matt_22
Joined: 22 Nov 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:12 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Hater Depot wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Hater Depot wrote: |
I've aways been for Obama but the longer this primary season goes the less and less I like of Clinton. She is running a very dirty campaign against a fellow Dem. Credible charges of voter fraud and intimidation in Nevada. Trying to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to count after pledging to respect the DNC's decision. And her campaign's ugly use of Obama's race is the topper. I will not pull the lever for her in the general election.
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Obama and Clinton are clones on the issues. Their environmental plans have the same numbers.
You always backed Obama, so it does not surprise me that you view the campaign this way. Obama got a free-ride attacking Clinton all the way until Iowa, and she turned back and hit hard.
Obama's vulnerable. If he can't beat Clinton, he can't win on the national stage. |
I agree that he is vulnerable. I have no problem with Clinton attacking him. What I have a problem with is the way she is doing it. Before Nevada I would have had no problem voting for her in the general and now I will not. If she is the nominee I will vote write-in or stay home. |
Really?
So I guess universal health care, expanded funds for education, investment in alternative energy, and serious initiatives to fight global warming should be set aside even though Hillary champions them, too.
*shrugs* |
all that doesn't matter, because people's emotions will win out over their true interests when and if it comes to be that hillary wins the nomination. the backlash against her is surprising already. even the NYTimes (who just endorsed Billary a few days ago) has been loaded with op-eds decrying bill's actions as damaging to the party. leading democrats are dialling up bill and yelling at him to stop. and then he goes out and likens obama to jesse jackson, playing the race card any chance he gets. right now the democrats are watching one of their own beloved stars get swiftboated in the primaries, and if hillary succeeds, a large number of them will either vote against her or not vote at all. and to even make the assertion that hillary would win the independent vote vs mccain is an absolute joke. if it's hillary vs mccain, she doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:05 am Post subject: |
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I think Ted Kennedy's expected endorsement (tomorrow) of Obama will help him get support among old liberals, while JFK's daughter, Caroline's, support of him might subconsciously remind people of what happened to another intelligent, young inspirational-type leader who somehow became President during a turbulent period...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080127/ap_on_el_pr/obama_kennedy
I think a lot of people would vote for him just for the excitement value to see what happens ...
Voting Hillary in would be throwing a life-line to Rush Limbaugh, whose influence has evidently dramatically declined - if his support of Giuliani in Florida is any indication ...
Entertainment-wise, I don't think most people would be as into re-runs of the Clinton dramas ...
Hillary also credits Billy Graham with saving her marriage, so he would again be linked to the White House as a spiritual advisor.
Hopefully, an upgrade can be made in that department - I would be a better choice ...  |
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