Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Mr. Pink]

Thing I regret the most about 1997 IMF...and my parents are kicking themselves too.

If my parents sent me 50 grand Cdn...at 2000 won per dollar I could have sent them back 75 grand like 4 months later and had myself 25grand left over

I also remember when SK stock was selling for like 150,000 won, like a year later it was upto 1.2mil per share. Man that one hurt too...but at the time I didn't know how long the currency markets would be down.

[HardyandTiny]

The problem is in China.
AND the answer is from China.
The Chinese Yuen has been tied to the dollar for too long and China is beginning to realize it will have to allow its currency to flow freely in order to exact its actual value and avoid a future major recession. When the Chinese release their "tie" of 8.2 to the dollar you will see a major decrease of about 40%. So Chinese people who thought they had US1000 dollars will suddenly find themselves with about US600 dollars.
This will disrupt all markets and correct the American market by about 10%.
What you are seeing now is a prelude to China's free form market.
Foreign investors in China are dissatisfied with companies that are supposedly open to the market but are actually only allowed to open 25% of their shares to investors.
As China moves into a free form market they will lose their share of export value; people will change suppliers/manufacturers..vietnam. laos.cambodia.etc...cheaper places
There will be a "slow down", and the world will gain more confidence in Chinese investments, slowly, but this will only effect certain industries.
The US and Canadian dollar will decrease in value BUT the prospects for Canadian and American companies in China will surge, especially in the energy industry.
If you are a CANADIAN you should be aware of (IVAN)IvanHoe Energy, and (HUGO) both of them are poised to make at least double digit profits in the next two years and possibly more. I have been accumulatiing HUGO stock.
At this point your best investment is in companies that will supply energy to that big Chinese machine.
Put your money to work before you're old!

[Mr. Pink]

Well putting your money to work in stocks is taking risks. I've always believed that you shouldn't invest what you aren't prepared to lose. Hence why I avoided the Korean stock market during IMF...when that was probably the best time to invest.

[gmat]

Sorry Hardy and Tiny but you have it completely backwards with respect to the Chinese Yuan.

It is significantly UNDERVALUED now at its current peg level. There has been tremendous pressure by the US and European governments for the Chinese government to re-value its currency upwards. The Chinese government is in no rush to revalue as the low value of the Yuan is a boon to its export driven economy. It is hard for any manufacturers to compete against China due to its low currency value coupled with its naturally low labor costs.

ps. Many big investment banks are trying to accumulate as many Chinese (RMB) assets as they possibly can, because the RMB/Yuan will have to be revalued upwards at some point in the future.

[RR]

GMAT is 100% right.... All the G7 are pushin 'em to raise the value of the yuan.... the EU has been especially harsh recently... but they ain't gonna do it for as long as possible, and with the US economy heating up big time, expect the pressure from the US to slack of (at least after the election).

My prediction is the Yuan will be raised, or floated, no sooner that 2 years from now, and probably a lot longer.

BTW: Do you know that it is the stated, public policy of the US Fed. Bank to push the dollar lower? Well 'tis, and it is going to get lower and lower over the next few years. Now does that mean that the K.Won will get stronger in relation? Who knows, but it can't hurt.

As for Canadians, Austalians, NZ's, all 3 countries have had historically weak currencies for like 5-10 years now..... it is about time that they start to rise again, which could mean that the K.Won will get weaker in realtion, it can't help anyway.

On a short term basis the currency markets are way unpredictable.... but over the long term they follow pretty predictable trends.

BTW2: Korea is an export economy, so it is in their national interest to keep their currecny as low as they can.

RR

[jaebea]

Australia's not-so-insignificant export industry will suffer as a result of the strengthening AU dollar, especially in comparison to our chief export markets such as Japan and SEA.

The cost of imported luxuries will obviously decline, but I think that the rising AUD should be checked, perhaps even pegged back to around 0.65USD.

The days of 0.80USD (and more) are well and truly over, with the opening of the Chinese economy and the formation of the EU, there are too many opportunities to lose. Considering Australia's resources, knowledge and skills, losing out on valuable exports into China is just something that cannot be considered from an economic point of view.

2c.

jae.

[Manner of Speaking]

I hope the won DOES tank. A year ago I put $5000 worth of won into a Canadian dollar bank account, so I have loonies if I need them. I don't send any money home, so it doesn't hurt, and if it does, the country'll clear out and I'll have LOTS of new job opps.

[wormholes101]

[Basil Brush]

RR Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:37 am. jaebae Tue Nov 25, 2003 3:46 pm.
Wow...

[RR]

??? ???

Don't get it Basil.... whaddaya mean?

[jaebea]

RR, I'd probably speculate that he believes that I was reiterating your post without any further addition... For what reason, I don't know..

For the record, I was commenting on RR's view that the AUD should increase against the greenback, which I believe is a bad thing for the AU economy.

cheers.

jae.

[RR]

Jaebae,

Just to clarify: I don't think it should strengthen, I think that it will.

In other words, I don't care if the AUD goes up or down. My opinion is that I would like to see it do whatever is best for Australia (I'm American, but I've got nothing against Australia ).

I think it should strengthen, should=will probably, not should=ought to.

Just to clarify

RR

[Drakoi]

I saw a report that said the won was going to hover around 1235 per USD for the next two quarters. It's like 1203 today.

[Basil Brush]

This thread was in the general discussion forum. Intially the discussion was based on relevant issues. Hardy and Tiny hijacked the thread, changed the direction of the thread and suceeded in showing his ignorance. Then RR and jaebae give others a pretentious, false, and misleading account of issues that could be discussed elsewhere.


RR's

[just because]

I'm going back to Australia in 3 weeks. Everyday these days it is becoming more and more expensive to go. Ahhhh...I knoiw that it will go back down but I need it to go down now, damn it.