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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
All of this "China is the next superpower" talk sounds an awful lot like the old "China Market" mythology. And this thread's title poses a false dilemma.
| Kuros wrote: |
| Nuclear submarines, the ships sent to Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Soviet intervention in Central and South America, etc, etc. |
Besides Berlin, Czechoslovakia and the rest of Eastern Europe, which the Soviet Army dominated during the entire Cold War, besides the Soviet-backed North Vietnamese Army and virtually Hanoi's entire air-defense system, and besides the Red Army's decade in Afghanistan and, at times, cross-border incursions into Pakistan, add the Soviet naval base at Cam Ranh Bay (post1975), which deployed and directed substantial naval and recon forces stationed from there to the Indian Ocean to East Africa, and add various incidents in subSaharan Africa, such as the Congo crisis -- which involved Soviet supply units, especially trucks -- a region where Soviets airlifted and deployed Cuban forces in the 1960s and 1970s. And moving into the 1980s, where do people think the Sandinistas' Soviet tanks and helicopters came from? Who advised/trained the Sandinistas' to drive and fly them?
We should also expand this to include political direction, advising, and funding: the Comintern and Bucharest.
Further, the Soviets were, at first, ahead of us in the space race. And they trailed just behind us in nuclear weapons, especially post-Missile Crisis.
China has never been in the same league, Mao's talk about backing "wars of national liberation" notwithstanding. Remember when Beijing invaded Vietnam, "to teach the Vietnamese a lesson" after Hanoi had invaded Cambodia in the late-1970s? China could barely handle that. The last intel I read estimated that China did not even possess the military power to retake Taiwan at present -- any and all political considerations notwitstanding. |
What Gopher said.  |
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The Den
Joined: 26 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:28 am Post subject: |
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I watched that doc and it is pretty scary. Not surprising though. I guess the decision to move out to the burbs a couple of years ago seems pretty silly now. Oh well. We are here now. Luckily I love biking and could do it in winter if I had to. Anyway, things will change. Here is another fear mongering little video for you all. The story of stuff. Think about this next time you buy some useless plastic crap that is made in China.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/ |
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fiveeagles
Joined: 19 May 2005
Location: Vancouver
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| China is producing 700,000 engineers to NA's 70,000 per year. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:56 am Post subject: |
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| Right. Now discuss "quality." MIT, Stanford, CalTech, etc. |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: |
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| The Den wrote: |
I watched that doc and it is pretty scary. Not surprising though. I guess the decision to move out to the burbs a couple of years ago seems pretty silly now. Oh well. We are here now. Luckily I love biking and could do it in winter if I had to. Anyway, things will change. Here is another fear mongering little video for you all. The story of stuff. Think about this next time you buy some useless plastic crap that is made in China.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/ |
Good video, thanks. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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China has enormous potential. China has enormous problems. There is always a whiff of 'yellow peril' in the air when there is talk of China's threat to the future. But I wouldn't sneeze at the number of engineers they are producing. When you roll the dice that many times, you only have to get lucky once or twice to win big especially when you send so many overseas for education. It's also not a good idea to underestimate the other guy.
China's route to the #1 position may be eased by an incompetent US administration determined to impose their flawed views on the country. There was a report the other day that this year's addition to the national debt is $500 billion. That's irresponsible. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| ...especially when you send so many overseas for education. |
Exactly. But how is it that people are looking at such trends as this and then promoting China as the world's-superpower-in-waiting?
And I never have sneezed at China, as you say. Neither have I underestimated the Chinese. But if China is truly this immense power to be reckoned with, especially in engineering, then I would like to see China's MIT, Stanford, CalTech, etc. Also, how many non-Chinese, especially from places like Western Europe and North America, are banging down China's doors to get an engineering education there (as the Chinese are in all kinds of American universities -- not merely the superstar universities, either, but also any-old state university)? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: |
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Presumably, China can utilize some of her foreign-educated people as teachers at home and gradually up-grade her own educational institutions. She could also use some of those piles of money to hire first-rate teachers now if she wanted to. I'm reminded of KAIST hiring that American president last year (?) in an effort to up-grade. That particular experiment didn't go far. That isn't to say another attempt will also fail.
China, like Korea and Japan, has that Confucian pro-education thing going for it. If they have the anti-intellectual strain in their culture, like we do, I'm not aware of it. We forego an immense pool of talent by tolerating a substandard public education system.
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| And I never have sneezed at China |
That wasn't directed specifically at you. I had in mind the authorities who thought little short guys with glasses and buck teeth couldn't attack Pearl Harbor. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Presumably, China can utilize some of her foreign-educated people as teachers at home and gradually up-grade her own educational institutions. She could also use some of those piles of money to hire first-rate teachers now if she wanted to. |
What about the Chinese govt and bureaucracy?
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| If they have the anti-intellectual strain in their culture, like we do, I'm not aware of it. We forego an immense pool of talent by tolerating a substandard public education system. |
Anti-intellectual? Like Mao's Cultural Revolution? The closest we ever came to that would probably be radical students at such places as Columbia in the 1960s.
America remains extremely tolerant of intellectuals -- and dissidents, for that matter. I mention the latter because in America they are usually the former, too. In any case, we do not jail either intellectuals or dissidents as the Chinese do. And if such trends as the Cultural Revolution, Tiananmen, the internet, and Tibet represent the future, I think we have a lot to be concerned about re: Chinese global hegemony.
My point here remains this, however: just before Britain became a superpower, it looked a certain way (full industrialization, for ex., among many other indicators). Same thing for the United States between 1890s and 1940s. And China, today, does not look anything like this to me. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
China, like Korea and Japan, has that Confucian pro-education thing going for it. If they have the anti-intellectual strain in their culture, like we do, I'm not aware of it. We forego an immense pool of talent by tolerating a substandard public education system.
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Okay, Ya-Ta, I agree that China has potential. If you want to do the whole Confucian education is roughly equivalent to Protestant work-ethic thesis, that's fine.
Here's my problem with these 'superpower' predictions:
a) They're always made by people who don't know China. I have no doubt that these people have the same mentality as those who hyped Japan in the late 1980s.
b) The superpower predictions assume that China's rate of growth will be consistantly 10% for 20 years out. This has never happened for any country ever in the history of recorded economic growth. Japan's 10% economic growth lasted for the entire 60s, and then began to slowly come back to earth with 5% in the 70s and 4% in the 80s.
c) The superpower predictions do not address individual quality of life, which is incomparable to Western standards for the vast majority of Chinese even within the Eastern cities. If you will see in the same link, Japan's near dominant 1990s economy inflicted poor working conditions on well-educated laborers.
Here are my arguments, in contrast, on why China will be at least the dominant regional power:
a) Demographics. Contrary to the theory of demographic collapse, the Chinese are merely in an inevitably necessary demographic slowdown. This appears to be a collapse because there were comparatively so many children produced during Mao's time in power. The present fertility rate is 1.77 children/woman. While somewhat low, this is significantly better than its neighbors: South Korea 1.29, Japan 1.22, Taiwan 1.13, Singapore 1.08, Hong Kong/Kowloon Island 1, (follow CIA link above for source). China's birthrate dirth is made up for by the fact that it has hundreds of millions not even properly integrated into the global economy; it can always bring in farmers from the hinterlands into the cities to join the economy, and in fact, it will have to do so to continue its phenomenal present growth. Meanwhile, China has recently been taking steps to address the root of demographic decline. It is focused on a harmonious society and protecting employees. Go to China, and you'll find a work atmosphere more balanced and less soul-crushing than any of its demographically ailing neighbors. In turn, Chinese parents will have time to raise children even as the One Child Policy is being relaxed.
b) People. China, at the end of the day, has so damned many people. Like America, it has size and depth to bank on. This advantage is also a disadvantage, but when you have over 1 billion people, you cannot help but be a presence.
c) Meritocracy. Ya-Ta is right, the Confucian education system emphasizes merit over class. Unlike caste-saddled India, the Chinese actually care about what you can do. Of course, just like in any society, you need the right connections to open the right doors. But without a good education or test scores, you'll never even get those opportunities. |
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Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:28 am Post subject: |
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Let's continue this.
First off, let's get some silliness out of the way:
China in Vietnam is being posed as evidence that it won't be a superpower while we consider the US in Vietnam in the 70s?
Who's making these comparisons? Oh, I know, it's Batman.
The Soviet Union projecting its power into Latin America...
is what the Soviet Union did. It's not some test for China to do the same.
It would seem that, when one speaks of superpowers, some expect to follow a schedule provided by history. However, no superpower has ever just been cultivated as such.
Now, on to Kuros:
| Quote: |
a) They're always made by people who don't know China. |
Wow, you lead off with an ad hominem? I didn't expect that from you.
| Quote: |
| I have no doubt that these people have the same mentality as those who hyped Japan in the late 1980s. |
Well, we're going to get into the difference below.
But, since you're talking who knows China and who doesn't, what's your pedigree vis a vis China?
| Quote: |
| b) The superpower predictions assume that China's rate of growth will be consistantly 10% for 20 years out. This has never happened for any country ever in the history of recorded economic growth. Japan's 10% economic growth lasted for the entire 60s, and then began to slowly come back to earth with 5% in the 70s and 4% in the 80s. |
You, who claim to know China, seem to be leaning heavily on Japan for your predictions. Growth is not only important to China. It's pretty important to any capitalist economy. The West is running low on places to expand to. China has...well...China. As a place that produces half the crap the West consumes, China has a HUGE advantage in terms of expansion into its own country.
| Quote: |
| c) The superpower predictions do not address individual quality of life, which is incomparable to Western standards for the vast majority of Chinese even within the Eastern cities. If you will see in the same link, Japan's near dominant 1990s economy inflicted poor working conditions on well-educated laborers. |
Whoa... Individual quality of life? Japan?
Hello?
Aren't we talking about superpowers? Why do you insist on talking about Japan? You and Gopher are on 2 different pages arguing for the same thing.
You're both making semi-retarded rules about what constitutes a superpower and citing semi-retarded evidence that indicates China isn't about to become the obvious.
My earlier arguments related to Gitmo.
If you want to indulge in empire, avoid behavior the next empire might partake of.
2000-2008 have given very long strings to whoever occupy the driver's seat.
But no worries, it'll be Obama and not China.
No reason to worry about China.
None at all.
Look at China in Vietnam... |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Nowhere Man wrote: |
| China in Vietnam is being posed as evidence that it won't be a superpower while we consider the US in Vietnam in the 70s? |
Vietnam kicked pretty much everyones ass. The Chinese, the French, the Americans, and then went over to Cambodia and kicked Pol Pot out of power. Pretty impressive group of people.
As an aside, it is interesting seeing the massive pyschological scars on the American media, populace, the veterans, etc. within and accross America. We usually assume its worse in Vietnam.
It is not, when I went to Vietnam, they just thought of that as a brief 'American War' among many foriegn invaders and that they kicked us out just like everyone else (with great pride about it). |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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Vietnam is a mini-China economically speaking; well, a mini-China about 5-10 years ago. It has the potential to become the dominant country in S.East Asia. While I didn't really enjoy my time visiting the place, I have to say I was pretty damn impressed by the activity and hard work people were doing.
In regards to education, 45% of the incoming class in my school is foreign this year (vs. around 25% my year, and about 20% the year before). Where are most of them from? The PRC.
And I agree with Ya-Ta. Most of these graduates are going to go back to China, and eventually China's higher education system will improve. Will it catch up to the USA? I doubt it, given the current political environment, but the potential is certainly there. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Tiger Beer wrote: |
...it is interesting seeing the massive pyschological scars on the American media, populace, the veterans, etc. within and accross America. We usually assume its worse in Vietnam.
It is not. |
People you have met while touring Vietnam is one thing; Vietnamese voices such as Bao Ninh, in their wartime and postwar novels, are quite another. I trust you have read Sorrow of War, Tiger Beer?
In any case, romanticizing the Vietnamese leads to the same inaccuracies that appear whenever we romanticize anyone else. Certainly, the North Vietnamese unified Vietnam under their terms. It remains a very poor country, however. And in any case, the Vietnamese have sought to enter the world capitalist system on our terms for over a decade now. Talking about "winners" and "losers" in that war is a very problematic thing.
Bucheon Bum: where are China's "superpower-of-the-future" universities? If the Chinese must rely on American and other foreign educational institutions, is this still not a form of dependency? How many American students, to look at this from another way, are seeking engineering degrees in China? |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
Bucheon Bum: where are China's "superpower-of-the-future" universities? If the Chinese must rely on American and other foreign educational institutions, is this still not a form of dependency? How many American students, to look at this from another way, are seeking engineering degrees in China? |
keyword: eventually. Very vague term is it not?  And I said improve, not necessarily match the US. Other factors have to change in China in order for that to happen. I'm certainly not holding my breath.
And one benefit of being "scared" of others catching up with us is it inspires us to maintain that level of excellence. Better than complacency don't you agree? |
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