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Koreans say crisis worse than 1997 as stocks tumble
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Neil



Joined: 02 Jan 2004
Location: Tokyo

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i4NI wrote:
Could someone explain why Korea is hurting more than, say Japan? I don't know economics worth a crap. But i've been wondering.


I guess the stuff Korea is going through (not a great environment for foreign companies, crazy real esate prices, pressure to open their markets up to outsiders more) is similar to what happened to the Japanese 10-15 years ago. So they have a more 'been there, done that' approach to this crisis. Although I don't think Japan is out of the woods, the amount of businesses around my area that are closing is very noticeable.

Also in the 1990s Japanese banks were in such a mess they couldn't get caught up in the subprime mortgage fiasco.
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SeoulnPepe



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've also wondered about this, and have come to some opinions:

1. Japan has a much larger population, and so it's tax base, commercial potential etc. is larger. Any impact the US downturn had is minimized partly based on its size when compared to Korea.

2. Japanese banks stopped being greedy in the 90s, and saved. That's why they're flushed with cash, and that's why there were rumors of Japanese takeovers of failing US investment banks.

3. The Japanese government, I think, was wise not to waste taxpayer dollars to save reckless businesses.

4. The Japanese giants have brands that are more recognized and considered more reliable than Korean brands, brands such as Sony, Toshiba, Honda, Toyota, Panasonic, Canon, Nikon : ) etc. Which means that people generally prefer those to other brands...I believe prior to the US meltdown, Toyota was the biggest automaker/seller in the US.

5. They're innovative and creative. I'm not sure how their society is structured, but innovations pour out of that country like there's no tomorrow. Innovations here seem stifled, and maybe that's a cultural difference between the two countries.

But these are just my ramblings, and not concrete facts.
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SeoulnPepe



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One more thing...

Prices in general tend to be cheaper in Japan than Korea. That's according to a Japanese friend of ours who is married to a Korean.

She told us that avocados go for 1 for about 90Y (about $1US), whereas here they go for 2-3,000 per avocado.

I don't know if that's due to demand or competition. Her view was that the Japanese love bargains, and they love shopping for them, and retailers have responded by competing with each other with lower prices.

Here, it seems Koreans live by the more expensive it is, the better it has to be rule. Which is sometimes true, but not always.


Last edited by SeoulnPepe on Tue Nov 11, 2008 5:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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blade



Joined: 30 Jun 2007

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SeoulnPepe wrote:
One more thing...

Prices in general tend to be cheaper in Japan than Korea. That's according to a Japanese friend of ours who is married to a Korean.

She told us that avocados go for 1 for about 900Y (about $1US), whereas here they go for 2-3,000 per avocado.


900yen = $10 US
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A macro comparison of Korea and Japan is extremely complicated. Both will be seriously harmed by this global recession and it is impossible to know which will manage better. There are too many variables (politicians, for one). I assume Korea is in for a rough 3-5 years. Very rough. I don't know much about Japan.

But, back to the OP. I do believe that this could be worse than 97 in outcome. Korea and the other Tigers recovered from the AFC very quickly on a wave of massive consumer demand in the US. That demand has fed their economies for a decade (and the huge supply of credit has raised domestic asset prices in Korea etc and consumers have felt more wealthy as a result). The recovery from a financial crises is quite a bit easier than a reshuffling of an economy from export led to a more balanced export + domestic consumption led economy. It could get very messy.
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blade



Joined: 30 Jun 2007

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i4NI wrote:
Could someone explain why Korea is hurting more than, say Japan? I don't know economics worth a crap. But i've been wondering.

It is hurting Japan very much but Japan unlike Korea isn't seeing it's currency lose it's value like the Won because the Yen is bankable outside of Korea. Every time a foreign investor decides to up sticks he has to automatically change his won into another currency. Every time a Korean company wants to import something it must use dollars to complete the purchase.
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