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nautilus
Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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 Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
In addition:
These days it�s hard to pick up a newspaper or turn on a news program without encountering stern warnings about the federal budget deficit. The deficit threatens economic recovery, we�re told;. |
US debt to hit proposed ceiling by end-February: Treasury
AFP 3 days ago
WASHINGTON � The US debt is on track to hit a congressionally proposed debt ceiling of 14.3 trillion dollars by the end of February, the Treasury said Wednesday,
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEkfx_bpGC-zVoeKNR38gWLcjXdw
US House votes to permit $1.9 trillion more debt
Associated Press
2010-02-05 01:58 AM
The House of Representatives has approved a measure allowing the U.S. government to borrow $1.9 trillion to pay its bills.
The measure would raise the so-called debt limit to $14.3 trillion _ more than $45,000 for every person living in the United States.
The massive increase in the debt is required because the government now has to borrow more than 40 cents of every dollar it spends because the recession has caused a slump in revenues at the same time spending has spiked.
http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1173390&lang=eng_news&cate_img=1037.jpg&cate_rss=General |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
In addition:
These days it�s hard to pick up a newspaper or turn on a news program without encountering stern warnings about the federal budget deficit. The deficit threatens economic recovery, we�re told; it puts American economic stability at risk; it will undermine our influence in the world. These claims generally aren�t stated as opinions, as views held by some analysts but disputed by others. Instead, they�re reported as if they were facts, plain and simple.
Yet they aren�t facts. Many economists take a much calmer view of budget deficits than anything you�ll see on TV. Nor do investors seem unduly concerned: U.S. government bonds continue to find ready buyers, even at historically low interest rates. The long-run budget outlook is problematic, but short-term deficits aren�t � and even the long-term outlook is much less frightening than the public is being led to believe...
To me � and I�m not alone in this � the sudden outbreak of deficit hysteria brings back memories of the groupthink that took hold during the run-up to the Iraq war. Now, as then, dubious allegations, not backed by hard evidence, are being reported as if they have been established beyond a shadow of a doubt...
Consider, for example, what the latest budget proposal from the Obama administration says about interest payments on federal debt; according to the projections, a decade from now they�ll have risen to 3.5 percent of G.D.P. How scary is that? It�s about the same as interest costs under the first President Bush.
Why, then, all the hysteria? The answer is politics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/opinion/05krugman.html
Hysteria is not the prefered mind-set when trying to find solutions to a problem. |
Boy, ol paul sure has changed his tune:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/11KRUG.html
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...last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits... we're looking at a fiscal crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high.
A leading economist recently summed up one reason why: "When the government reduces saving by running a budget deficit, the interest rate rises." Yes, that's from a textbook by the chief administration economist, Gregory Mankiw.
But what's really scary, what makes a fixed-rate mortgage seem like such a good idea, is the looming threat to the federal government's solvency.
That may sound alarmist: right now the deficit, while huge in absolute terms, is only 2 , make that 3, O.K., maybe 4 percent of G.D.P.
But that misses the point ... because of the future liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, the true budget picture is much worse than the conventional deficit numbers suggest.
... the conclusion is inescapable. Without the Bush tax cuts, it would have been difficult to cope with the fiscal implications of an aging population. With those tax cuts, the task is simply impossible. The accident, the fiscal train wreck, is already under way.
How will the train wreck play itself out? ... my prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.
... investors still can't believe that the leaders of the United States are acting like the rulers of a banana republic. But I've done the math, and reached my own conclusions -- and I've locked in my rate. |
Hack. Hack. Hack. Hack. A thousand times. Hack.
People like me and those who I trust (not hacks) were concerned about the Bush deficit. Now we're more concerned about the Obama deficit, for the simple reason that it is larger. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Ya-ta Boy"]
| Kuros wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
One of my favorite people is Roger Ebert. He figured out that it makes sense to judge a person by what they set out to do. If a director sets out to make a horror movie, it makes no sense to judge them a failure for producing a great comedy just because that is what you were in the mood for. You should think about that. |
The Stimulus was supposed to save/create 4 million jobs.
Obama stopped measuring the jobs saved/created after it became a PR nightmare.
Mission accomplished. |
| Quote: |
| The stimulus clearly saved jobs, maybe not as many as hoped, but it did contribute significantly to putting a floor under the economy. |
Conclusory. We simply can't know for sure going forward whether we are coming out of a crisis. To be frank, it is impossible to know how many jobs were lost, gained, or saved as a result of the Stimulus. However, I can say that funds issued to bail out State gov'ts were probably well spent. The tax cuts are almost all fruitless, especially those given to prop up the housing market. Some of the green projects may be worthy in themselves of funding, especially if they can stimulate private sector investment.
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| It was enough of a jolt to stop what looked like a collapse. The worst criticism of it is that it was too small--Obama should have spent more. The other thing he should have done was to publicize the successes--photo ops in the Rose Garden, etc of people whose jobs were saved. A couple of weeks ago the wind energy folks put out that there was 40% increase in construction than there would have been otherwise last year. That's an accomplishment that didn't get noticed. There are no doubt a lot more of them that get buried in all the negativity the nay-sayers prefer to hear. |
At what point does accountability become negativity, Ya-Ta? You sound like the Bush and the GOP talking about Iraq circa 2004-2005. Why is everyone so damned negative? Uh, because the leadership sucks.
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| The nihilism is getting suffocating. |
So disagreeing with you is now nihilism? Come off it. Do you think I'd be supporting the Stimulus if McCain had captained it? Even if Hillary had passed it? If you think so, then maybe I can understand why you think I'm so irksome. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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The nihilism is getting suffocating.
So disagreeing with you is now nihilism? Come off it. Do you think I'd be supporting the Stimulus if McCain had captained it? Even if Hillary had passed it? If you think so, then maybe I can understand why you think I'm so irksome. |
The nihilism was meant to be a general comment on the atmosphere here at Dave's. The negativity gets to me sometimes. I often wonder why 3/4's of the posters don't slit their wrists and end their suffering.
Here's a nice graph: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/02/a_very_revealing_chart.php?ref=fpblg |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 5:39 pm Post subject: |
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This graph shows exactly what Ya-ta's graph shows, though, just using a different format. I don't really see how it's better from any perspective other than comparing the current recession to past ones. |
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asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
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| Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
People like me and those who I trust (not hacks) were concerned about the Bush deficit. Now we're more concerned about the Obama deficit, for the simple reason that he is a democrat. |
There fixed it for you.  |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 10:57 pm Post subject: |
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| asylum seeker wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
People like me and those who I trust (not hacks) were concerned about the Bush deficit. Now we're more concerned about the Obama deficit, for the simple reason that he is a democrat. |
There fixed it for you. |
If there's a conservative on this forum who has proven that he's focused on policy rather than party, it's mises. I don't think Obama's political party affects his judgment on the matter. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:42 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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Quote:
The nihilism is getting suffocating.
So disagreeing with you is now nihilism? Come off it. Do you think I'd be supporting the Stimulus if McCain had captained it? Even if Hillary had passed it? If you think so, then maybe I can understand why you think I'm so irksome. |
The nihilism was meant to be a general comment on the atmosphere here at Dave's. The negativity gets to me sometimes. I often wonder why 3/4's of the posters don't slit their wrists and end their suffering.
Here's a nice graph: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/02/a_very_revealing_chart.php?ref=fpblg |
See, I see this crash as an opportunity. There's much to be fixed and the people have a sense of seriousness and urgency that I've not seen in my entire lifetime.
Ya-Ta, if you want to talk more about the silver lining just say so! I understand the value of staying positive. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:04 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| asylum seeker wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
People like me and those who I trust (not hacks) were concerned about the Bush deficit. Now we're more concerned about the Obama deficit, for the simple reason that he is a democrat. |
There fixed it for you. |
If there's a conservative on this forum who has proven that he's focused on policy rather than party, it's mises. I don't think Obama's political party affects his judgment on the matter. |
Mises, the staunch Republican???
Yeah, that was a pretty silly "fix." |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:15 am Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| Fox wrote: |
| asylum seeker wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
People like me and those who I trust (not hacks) were concerned about the Bush deficit. Now we're more concerned about the Obama deficit, for the simple reason that he is a democrat. |
There fixed it for you. |
If there's a conservative on this forum who has proven that he's focused on policy rather than party, it's mises. I don't think Obama's political party affects his judgment on the matter. |
Mises, the staunch Republican???
Yeah, that was a pretty silly "fix." |
*joins pile-on*
Mises is certainly not a Republican.
Somebody labeled me a Republican the other week and I was not happy about it. |
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nautilus
Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| To be frank, it is impossible to know how many jobs were lost, gained, or saved as a result of the Stimulus. |
Manufacturers hired more workers for the first time in three years, expanded hours and boosted pay, which may lift consumer spending and sustain growth.
�Companies just can�t meet demand requirements with their existing labour force, so they have to increase the number of workers,� said Carl Riccadonna, a senior US economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
The survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labour force rose.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0206/1224263886747.html |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 6:09 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
Quote:
The nihilism is getting suffocating.
So disagreeing with you is now nihilism? Come off it. Do you think I'd be supporting the Stimulus if McCain had captained it? Even if Hillary had passed it? If you think so, then maybe I can understand why you think I'm so irksome. |
The nihilism was meant to be a general comment on the atmosphere here at Dave's. The negativity gets to me sometimes. I often wonder why 3/4's of the posters don't slit their wrists and end their suffering.
Here's a nice graph: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/02/a_very_revealing_chart.php?ref=fpblg |
See, I see this crash as an opportunity. There's much to be fixed and the people have a sense of seriousness and urgency that I've not seen in my entire lifetime.
Ya-Ta, if you want to talk more about the silver lining just say so! I understand the value of staying positive. |
I think you're right. There was an atmosphere of seriousness and urgency that I haven't seen since the early/mid 60's when the civil rights laws were passed.
I also saw it as an opportunity, was hoping Obama would pull a 100 Days kind of FDR thingie and really change things, and I think he missed it last winter. Given the poutrage we've seen, I really honestly truly think that if he had tried to fix the banking system, we'd be knee-deep in blood by now. I respect his choice because I am not in charge of an entire country and economy and I think he did what he thought he could to save the country. And he did, but will never get credit for it, the same as FDR never got credit for saving the US from the Great Depression.
mises (who may deny ever admitting it) admitted that econ is 80% wants and desires and only 20% fact, might, on an off day, sometime admit that economics is largely about psychology.
As long as people pooh-pooh any and every nudge and wiggle to the better, then things will keep creeping along, with a lurch backwards from time to time. And things will only gradually get better if they don't get worse.
If people's spirits pick up and they start to see a real future where they aren't half-expecting to lose their job, their house and their shirt, things can start to pick up. It's all about confidence, and that is something gov't can't fix. The tone around this place (Dave's) is about cutting down, shooting down and spitting on everything positive. My impression of most of the posters here is that they want things to get really bad. Then they could be happy in their misery.
I have faith in America's innovation and resilience. I have no faith in any half-baked economic theory that has never been tried in the real world. That was the 20th Century and I was sick of it long before it ended. 'Creative destruction' looks a lot better in a text book while daddy is paying the bills. It looks less attractive when you have a whole lot of families relying on not tipping the country into a chaotic economic experiment that Jay Gould may have liked, but would do nothing for the mass of the public.
I will always think we are a progressive society that gathers its strength, lunges forward, scares itself with its audacity then takes a breather before moving ahead again. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 6:34 am Post subject: |
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| mises (who may deny ever admitting it) admitted that econ is 80% wants and desires and only 20% fact, might, on an off day, sometime admit that economics is largely about psychology. |
Neo-classical (wrong) economics is focused on psychology. This is why they do not declare a depression. The establishment has decided that not using that word will avoid that situation. It's nonsense.
We are in a process of deleveraging. A recession is characterized by the business cycle and inventory issues. A depression is characterized by debt-heavy balance sheets. The inventory issues resolve themselves easily. The debt takes years and years and years. We're in about year 2.5 of this. Japan's credit bubble burst in Q4 1989. They've been in decline ever since, with a downward trend interrupted by bear-market rallies. 20 years later, they have not cleared out the debt. Until they do, they decline. Same for us.
Performing honest analysis of the present situation is the only responsible thing to do. Not only is it healthy for your mind (false hope is unhealthy) but it assists in making appropriate long-term economic plans. Honesty is needed. Not fabricated statistics and platitudes about a recovery that is no where near.
For an example of how unhealthy false-hope can be, look at the 8k homebuyer tax credit. Home prices will continue to decline to values near 1997-2000. Yet the government encouraged people to buy a rapidly and assuredly depreciating asset with rapidly and assuredly appreciating debt. This is unhealthy and mean. Hundreds of thousands of families who bought into the false hope are going to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars each on this deal. A more honest society would not have allowed this.
| Quote: |
| The survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labour force rose. |
They removed people from the laborforce using the birth/death model and a few hundred thousand more lost their unemployment benefits (rendering them not unemployed for statistical reasons). Then, they "seasonally adjust" the numbers.
If the statistical methods used to calculate unemployment from 1980 were used today, the rate would be 22%.
22%. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 6:52 am Post subject: |
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| You would be a lot more believable (and informative) if you clearly marked your posts into fact sections and opinion sections. |
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