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Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
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orosee

Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Location: Hannam-dong, Seoul
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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Just on TV News:
And now here's Ollie Williams with a commentary on the NK/SK situation. Ollie?
"We'reallgo'ndie!"
Thank you Olli. Now Asian reporter Tricia Takanawa from the frontlines... |
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thomas pars
Joined: 29 Jan 2009
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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if there was any sort of emergency and it involved you dealing with the embassy, they would do what they normally do when you have to rely on the embassy, that is nothing.
They would deal with their people first. and the rest would be bone meal.
So if NK attacks, highly unlikey really, you would have not a chance. Seoul is within MORTAR range folks. Not misels, not rockets, but mortar range.
The streets would be jammed beyond belief. The best thing to do would probably head the basement and wait it out. |
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Mikejelai
Joined: 01 Nov 2009 Location: Seoul
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| what mortar will lob a round 45 miles???? don't you mean artillery/howitzer? |
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orosee

Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Location: Hannam-dong, Seoul
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:27 pm Post subject: |
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Anyway, nobody wants a war. North Korea is only acting as a messenger, same as South Korea is only a messenger.
It is fairly obvious if you look at what's WEST of the joint naval excercises. What's N/NE is irrelevant.
Message from the USA via South Korea (by means of naval excercises): "CHINA, we're right here in your front yard!"
Message from China via North Korea (by means of artillery strike): "USA, we don't want you in our front yard!".
Seriously, who'd want joint Cuban/Chinese/Russian naval and aerial manoeuvres in the Caribbean?
That's why nobody wants a war, and nobody wants to kill the messengers  |
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Steelrails

Joined: 12 Mar 2009 Location: Earth, Solar System
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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| silkhighway wrote: |
SteelRails, you're more of an optimist than I am. North Korea has the largest artillery force in the world, and all virtually in range of Seoul. They have repeatedly made threats they would flatten Seoul in an full-out escalation and I don't see why they wouldn't make due on their word considering the importance of Seoul both symbollically and practically. We can debate all day about the rationality of it, but it's making sense of the senseless, and civil war is usually senseless and very very ugly. The best possible outcome is to avoid it altogether.
Ok, If war breaks out I don't exactly think Seoul will be turned into a parking lot. However I do think North Korea is certainly capable and almost certainly will inflict enough damage to it that it becomes a humanitarian crisis considering a couple stray shells in populated neighbourhoods like Nowon will leave thousand homeless. |
Fortunately there is the experience of history to teach us about being calm when it comes to bombardments and the limitations of their effectiveness, especially when its the weaker power attempting them and on a short-term scale.
Also we can rest assured that U.S./ROK air superiority would quickly be established and that those pieces would be amongst the first things targeted.
Remember, ultimately it is North Korea that is more terrified of the South. Which Armed Forces do you think KJI would rather have? Which Treaty-bound ally do you think he'd rather have in a fight?
You talk about Seoul being in range of plenty of ordinance. Pyongyang is in range of plenty of US/ROK Airborne or Carrier borne ordinance. Sure its about three times the distance from the DMZ that Seoul is, but that still means its 3 days away from being overrun by South Korean/US Armor and Mechanized Infantry.
Not to mention if KJI spends all of his artillery on bombarding Seoul it makes it that much more difficult to defeat the Armed Forces of SK/US. This isn't a board game. You don't win by taking someone's capital. The Norks would have to make the destruction of the ROK Armed Forces and their will/capacity to fight a main goal. Bombarding Seoul and then occupying it does little to accomplish that and if anything makes such a goal 10X harder to accomplish.
As for it being a Humanitarian crisis all that means is that some outlying portion of Gyeongi will be tent city with portajohns and Plasma Screen TVs showing Soap Operas and a bunch of people will have to live with Uncle Cho down in Daegu for a couple months.
Once you get past they hype and the Tom Clancy crazy scenarios you realize how vulnerable NK is. |
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jacksthirty
Joined: 30 Nov 2009
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Now I don't have any links, but I seem to remember reading that the Pentagon has a plan which involves a pre-emptive strike on said artillary. Something about using all their long range bombers and Stealth bombers?!?! |
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brento1138
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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Good news for people who live in Seoul:
1) The North cannot launch a nuke at it. Doesn't have the technology. Most people don't understand why, but look into it a bit, and you'll understand how hard it is to miniaturize these weapons. Besides, it would be stupid, as the North Koreans themselves would be very negatively affected by the radiation!
2) I tutored a military strategist for the Korean army. He told me that everyone in the SK military thinks that North Korean artillery is mainly pointed at strategic points of interest, not civilian places such as Seoul. However... they WOULD indeed fire a relatively small amount of times at Seoul (thousands of rounds of artillery) to create a scene of chaos, but only AFTER taking out government and military installations inside the city (yepp, say goodbye to Yongsan). But your chances of surviving this are not nil... they are quite good if you don't live in Yongsan or Itaewon.
The people who say Seoul would be destroyed in 30 minutes are incorrect. That would only be in ALL of North Korea's artillery is pointed at Seoul, which it is DEFINITELY not. North Korea would be focusing it's fire on the military targets in and out of the DMZ, not Seoul (except for the points of strategic interest). A small attack on Seoul would take out the places that would really help the North Koreans, and a large attack on the DMZ would leave the South Korean army in ruins. It would create chaos and disrupt the city and country, which is what North Korea wants. I do believe much of the North Korean firepower would be taken out in the first few days, but if it doesn't get taken out, then indeed... Seoul could be destroyed in a last act of suicidal defiance.
Regardless... say goodbye to Itaewon, the Blue House, and any government or military office in the city. But your apartment? Huge chance it won't be hit... in the first few days anyhow! |
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Steelrails

Joined: 12 Mar 2009 Location: Earth, Solar System
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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| brento1138 wrote: |
Good news for people who live in Seoul:
1) The North cannot launch a nuke at it. Doesn't have the technology. Most people don't understand why, but look into it a bit, and you'll understand how hard it is to miniaturize these weapons. Besides, it would be stupid, as the North Koreans themselves would be very negatively affected by the radiation!
2) I tutored a military strategist for the Korean army. He told me that everyone in the SK military thinks that North Korean artillery is mainly pointed at strategic points of interest, not civilian places such as Seoul. However... they WOULD indeed fire a relatively small amount of times at Seoul (thousands of rounds of artillery) to create a scene of chaos, but only AFTER taking out government and military installations inside the city (yepp, say goodbye to Yongsan). But your chances of surviving this are not nil... they are quite good if you don't live in Yongsan or Itaewon.
The people who say Seoul would be destroyed in 30 minutes are incorrect. That would only be in ALL of North Korea's artillery is pointed at Seoul, which it is DEFINITELY not. North Korea would be focusing it's fire on the military targets in and out of the DMZ, not Seoul (except for the points of strategic interest). A small attack on Seoul would take out the places that would really help the North Koreans, and a large attack on the DMZ would leave the South Korean army in ruins. It would create chaos and disrupt the city and country, which is what North Korea wants. I do believe much of the North Korean firepower would be taken out in the first few days, but if it doesn't get taken out, then indeed... Seoul could be destroyed in a last act of suicidal defiance.
Regardless... say goodbye to Itaewon, the Blue House, and any government or military office in the city. But your apartment? Huge chance it won't be hit... in the first few days anyhow! |
I agree with the nuclear assessment. I also agree with the small scale attack being the best return on the investment in terms of creating chaos and that military targets would be priority number 1.
I'm not sure that a large attack on the DMZ would leave the army in ruins. Aside from the artillery, the North has no sizable advantage. Artillery alone would not be enough to destroy the South Korean Army. |
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Died By Bear

Joined: 13 Jul 2010 Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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You'll all be fine, nothing will happen.
Last edited by Died By Bear on Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:50 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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partymop
Joined: 24 Jun 2009
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Damn, I live in HBC, literally a stone's throw away from the base. I couple months ago when I moved, I couldn't believe I was getting a nice, big place for such a great price. I was beginning to wonder what that horrible catch would be |
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orosee

Joined: 07 Mar 2008 Location: Hannam-dong, Seoul
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Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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North Korean nuclear capability does not have to have an offensive character, in fact it has already been pointed out that NK does not have efficient means of delivery that would ensure at least one warhead to reach a meaningful target.
I think the nature of the weapon(s) is defensive. Remember that only 2 nuclear weapons have ever been used in an offensive move. The entire cold war was based on the principle of mutually assured destruction, an idiotic principle that worked very well until one side ran out of money.
Having the bomb means for NK that being attacked has become very unlikely as long as they can hide the location(s). They can't guarantee total destruction like the Americans and Russians (and I guess now the Chinese as well) could, but they can keep any ground army at arm's length (or 10-20 km radius at least).
Having the POTENTIAL to a nuclear attack works so much better for KJI than an ACTUAL attack.
The problem is entirely on our side. What is a measured, clear and effective response to the artillery strike?
Personally I think something that would fit into COD or MOH, or if that is not possible, call China. |
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decolyon
Joined: 24 Jul 2010
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Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:50 am Post subject: |
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Day 4: Since you decided to �pursue your education� after high school at a �college� instead of joining the military like your mother suggested, there is little for you at Osan. The airmen and soldiers there could use someone that learned how to use an M16 while you were smoking a bong in your dorm room pontificating on how true free market capitalism will only exist when we have the enforcement of social and economic libertarianism. Sober up you Ron Paul wannabe, it�s time to get your arse in gear. There are two paths past Osan AB. The first is to the East. It meanders through the tiny city of Songtan. Small, but with the panic that is likely to be abound, moving through this community is likely going to be a hassle. Remember, we�re going to try to avoid the population as much as possible. For fear of being robbed of cash or much needed food supplies, but also that if those psycho bastards up North control the air, the targets are going to be more populated areas. Especially those near a stratigically important base like Osan.
Instead, we move West. The peaceful Osancheon has now fed into the Jinwi-cheon. A larger river formed from the backwaters of the Yellow Sea. This path is slightly longer than the inner city route, but it will take you by an endless aray of rice paddies and other farm lands. A perfect opportunity to snag some veg and preserve you cereal bars and peanut butter you stole from the Family Mart. 12 miles on the Jinwi and it forks just on the outskirts of Peyongtaek, your rest point for the night. Locate the KTX tracks near the fork and head a little South until your in sight of Camp Humphreys. See if a soldier will spare an MRE or two and scout a quiet spot for the night. Shouldn�t be a problem, not a very populated area. Remember to avoid the crowded spots and set your sleepbad up under a few trees. Sleep tight!
Day 5: Since you should have stayed the night within site of the KTX tracks, you should have no problem linking up with them again and heading South. It�s a pretty easy day today, just a straight shot South. About halfway through the tracks make their way through a mountain tunnel (cool!) The only station on this rail is the sleepy town of Cheonan. It just so happens to be our hold up for the night. Considering it�s size and location, it should be quite simple to pass through this hamlet without ever being noticed by the locals.
One word of caution though. When following rails, it�s best not to walk on them or within a few meters of them. Should the North's airpower suddenly make improvements and they break South, they will try to interrupt the supply lines to the capitalist dogs further North. Major roads and train tracks are these lines. You don�t want to be too close when a 50 year old MiG drops a half ton bunker buster on those rails. Keep them in sight of your binoculars and try to remain out in the tall weeds if possible. Just a word of warning though, do what you want.
Day 6: Given the relative ease of yesterday�s trip, today we�ve really got to push ourselves. A 16 mile walk is ahead of us and it�s to the new government built technology city of Osong, just North of Yeongi. Sticking to KTX rails like before we�re going to make the short dog leg East and through the several mountain passes and over the river bridges along the way. You might want to stop and take a picture now as in month when you�re thrown into a NoKo prison labor camp, you�ll want some mental images of these pristine views. The trek is pretty straight forward and the huge new station at Osong is a clear indicator you�ve reached today�s destination. Over 16 miles you hoofed today, well done. You should have quads of steel at this point. |
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Kimchifart
Joined: 15 Sep 2010
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Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:18 am Post subject: Re: Likely scenarios in event of attack on Seoul? |
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| Mikejelai wrote: |
Yes, I know that the various embassies have evacuation plans in place for their citizens but I question how well these would actually work in reality. I mean, consider the likelihood that cell phone service and electricity would probably be cut, TV and radio transmitters would likely be off the air (AFN anyway), many roads impassable, chaos among the locals, embassy staff quickly fleeing aboard US army helicopters (like in Saigon at the end of the Vietnam war), the US army installations ablaze in a sea of flame (heaven forbid!), etc. After all, war IS hell!
I'm thinking it would be every man for himself, and the best bet would be to cross the Han river (by bridge or by swimming if necessary - damn, that would be some cold water!) and heading toward Pusan (hmmm, sounds historically familiar, no?).
Sounds a bit like "The Road" doesn't it? What would be the safest and fastest route to Pusan? Just head down the interstate highway (gridlock Hell or worse) or take to the backroads? How long would it likely take on foot? 7-10 days? Possibility of scavenging food along the way? Would the Korean banks freeze all accounts immediately?
I don't mean to sound paranoid or anything; just thinking, that's all. And remember the Boy Scout motto- "Be Prepared" |
Interesting thread.
I've thought about this long and hard, and I came to the conclusion some time ago that the best thing to do, assuming you get caught in the main body of panic and don't recognise the warning signs earlier (which is the truly sensible course) I would have to say that going east, then south might be the best option as you would box around the main body of traffic and also the main targets.
Following this it would be a bit like Fallout 3, so basically take a weapon, a passport, money and supplies along with a map and compass and get cycling or walking. I would personally try to sequester a bike as its quick, maneuverable and doesn't reply on fuel.
We are all doomed. |
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Konglishman

Joined: 14 Sep 2007 Location: Nanjing
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Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:30 am Post subject: Re: Likely scenarios in event of attack on Seoul? |
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| Kimchifart wrote: |
| Mikejelai wrote: |
Yes, I know that the various embassies have evacuation plans in place for their citizens but I question how well these would actually work in reality. I mean, consider the likelihood that cell phone service and electricity would probably be cut, TV and radio transmitters would likely be off the air (AFN anyway), many roads impassable, chaos among the locals, embassy staff quickly fleeing aboard US army helicopters (like in Saigon at the end of the Vietnam war), the US army installations ablaze in a sea of flame (heaven forbid!), etc. After all, war IS hell!
I'm thinking it would be every man for himself, and the best bet would be to cross the Han river (by bridge or by swimming if necessary - damn, that would be some cold water!) and heading toward Pusan (hmmm, sounds historically familiar, no?).
Sounds a bit like "The Road" doesn't it? What would be the safest and fastest route to Pusan? Just head down the interstate highway (gridlock Hell or worse) or take to the backroads? How long would it likely take on foot? 7-10 days? Possibility of scavenging food along the way? Would the Korean banks freeze all accounts immediately?
I don't mean to sound paranoid or anything; just thinking, that's all. And remember the Boy Scout motto- "Be Prepared" |
Interesting thread.
I've thought about this long and hard, and I came to the conclusion some time ago that the best thing to do, assuming you get caught in the main body of panic and don't recognise the warning signs earlier (which is the truly sensible course) I would have to say that going east, then south might be the best option as you would box around the main body of traffic and also the main targets.
Following this it would be a bit like Fallout 3, so basically take a weapon, a passport, money and supplies along with a map and compass and get cycling or walking. I would personally try to sequester a bike as its quick, maneuverable and doesn't reply on fuel.
We are all doomed. |
Personally, I think it would be more sensible to head south to Jeollanamdo and then go east from there. |
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brento1138
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Likely scenarios in event of attack on Seoul? |
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I say we foreigners band together to form a group! An ESL teacher group, all going towards Kyoung-ju together (you don't wanna go to Pusan, I will explain later*)! We'll be more powerful in a group, and have more stuff that we'll be able to carry. Supplies, such as water, food, hammers for breaking glass, bedding supplies. We'll also more easily be able to raid convenience stores for foods and supplies without too much worry...
Sure we'll be easily seen from the skies, but honestly, do you really think the North Koreans will get past the DMZ, even in the skies? They'll be shot down by the superior Korean F-15s and American F-16s. Don't forget the anti-aircraft guns you see all over Gyeongi-do (those things that look like astronomical observatories). So, the only real threat will actually be South Koreans trying to scramble over you and the artillery (possibly gas) that will reign over our heads. Also, when traveling in a group, if one person gets seriously injured, others can help him / her whereas if she / he were alone, that person would most likely die.
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*Kyeong-ju may be a better option than Busan. Busan is a key South Korean city and supplies area for South Korea. One of the scenarios thought up by various think-tanks (you can probably find the link on google somewhere) is that North Korea's main force will invade over (and possibly under) the DMZ while their special forces invade from the coast. The largest group of special forces will be assigned to Busan. North Korea has the largest special forces in the world. And they'll be looking to create chaos in Busan, since much of their artillery cannot reach it.
P.S. North Korea won't attack, but it's kinda fun to at least plan for the worst.  |
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