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Koreadays
Joined: 20 May 2008
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 Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:23 am Post subject: |
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| might be time to head back to OZ and work there! the Aussie dollar doesn't look like it's slowing down! wish I was earning Aussie dollars now. |
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Malislamusrex
Joined: 01 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:47 am Post subject: |
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| The Korean government is holding on to dollars because they would rather protect the economy than throw money at their problems like Western economies that don't actually remember what a real depression is actually like, the recovery of the won will be v shaped but you may have to wait until a while. |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:43 pm Post subject: |
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AUD will drop vs USD in a major way, by 30% or more.
The problem is, KRW. which the Korean government has been trying to lower vs every other currency in order to make its corporations competitive will drop by a big margin as well. In other words, I'm not sure what the exchange rate for KRW will be. This is a good time to buy USD though, as Asian currencies will continue to drop as they did in 2008.
For long term forecast from very successful forecasters, check marketvisiontv.com. You'll have to register first. Also, unfortunately, they do not do forecasts for KRW. |
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pegasus64128
Joined: 20 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:13 pm Post subject: |
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| nate1983 wrote: |
| PRagic wrote: |
I only threw the 'not an English teacher' line in there as someone suggested that nobody on the board has any experience related to exchange rates. For what it's worth (as that line seems to grate on you), I've worked in international trade and foreign direct investment, and, though I hate to tick you off, I have a Ph.D. in this crap. |
I've actually spent 5 months on the FX trading desk at a large international bank (my current employer), and have graduate degrees in math and econ, so I'm guessing that may qualify as well..
Anyway, a couple points I'll throw in:
1. The market is usually right. There's a reason current exchange rates are what they are, and it's because supply equals demand at that price.
2. The market can be irrational. Look at when USD/KRW went over 1500 in March 2008 - most people knew it would come down below 1200 again, but due to liquidity and other concerns it was higher than it "should have" been. Animal spirits are huge. If you have a good read on the "psychology" of the market, you may be able to make money. Look at gold now, it could keep going up to 1800 or it could collapse back down to 600 or below when people realize they don't have any use for the damn yellow stuff.
3. Multi-currency accounts are a great way for BANKS to make money. Trust me on this. They're not doing you any favors. Technically speaking, you're selling them a "put option" for way below market price. |
You have credibility for me, as a result of 2. and 3. especially.
2. Gold is the ultimate bubble. It can't purify water, cure disease or feed you. It will burst but you'll always get something for your gold, unlike paper money. Most people walk around with their d|icks in their hands these days. They might have some silver because they heard it's valuable but are unaware why - most reflective, heat conductive, and electrically conductive of all metals - useful in industry. But again it can't feed you, or cast magic spells. It is only useful in an industrialized society, not a post-industrial one.
3. Multi-currency accounts are a scam to rid you of your money. |
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Malislamusrex
Joined: 01 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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But any investor who has worked in an FX market has to make 5 trades a day and make 20 pips just to make enough commission to stay on the floor. That's the problem with FX markets making short term trades without wiping out all your profit.
| PRagic wrote: |
The Xrate market is set up to discourage individual investors from speculating in the short term. These days, we've just seen highly volitile shifts. If I had yen right now...! |
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depth
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:31 am Post subject: |
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KRW getting flogged  |
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