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Won-dollar rate could hit 1,000 this year
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highwayman wrote:
rainism wrote:
I'm a bit surprised that during the "negotiations" for those things someone hasn't bluntly called the Koreans out for the crap they are pulling.

So am I. Free trade has been a disaster for North America (excluding Mexico). And when Asia isn't stealing intellectual property outright, they're manipulating their currencies and sucking up all the manufacturing. I honestly don't see the upside for North America.


for the American consumer, I see plenty of upside. For the blue collar industrial worker, not so much.

remember that without free trade, Americans that insisted on "buying American" would have been stuck with the horridly crappy and low quality cars that Detroit was producing in the 80's (and some cases beyond)
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting volatility in the markets today. The won is at 1091 to the Cnd $ right now
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, I usually buy dollars for travel after 3 p.m., when FX trading is over, but today, I bought them as early as I could since it seems the won has further room to fall against the greenback.
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ippy



Joined: 25 Aug 2009

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im about to move to japan, so just wondering what people would recommend about changing money. Ive got a two week window, and just nebbing at the graph here: http://www.yen2won.com/

It looks like it was on a downward freefall before the japanese government intervened yesterday.

So the question, you reckon the drama is coming back, or is the yen heading ever upwards (or is it downwards - basically, the bad one) against the won?
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ippy they're not going to allow the yen to appreciate much more from here.

if stocks keep on tanking... the won will, as always be one of the biggest, if nt the biggest currency loser.

your chart sucks btw. use these:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=JPY&to=KRW&view=2Y
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=JPY&to=KRW&view=5Y

or short term

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=JPY&to=KRW&view=1M

if you put a gun to my head, I'd probaby buy won vs yen, but you'd have to keep the gun pressed against my temple for me to buy the won against ANYTHING.


Last edited by rainism on Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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ippy



Joined: 25 Aug 2009

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

so your advice would be to change while its relatively stable then?

PS. I aint investing. I have to switch my savings from won to yen is all Smile Its just a case of whether this sudden mischief is going to mean sitting and waiting for a week would be the better option rather than doing it all now if you get me?
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ippy wrote:
so your advice would be to change while its relatively stable then?

PS. I aint investing. I have to switch my savings from won to yen is all Smile Its just a case of whether this sudden mischief is going to mean sitting and waiting for a week would be the better option rather than doing it all now if you get me?


hmm... hard to really say. can you change some and keep some? if so, I'd go say 50/50.

it's really a matter of how risk averse you are. Even though the yen is overbought and they will intervene to cap it.. if shit really hits the fan stockwise around the globe, the won will get pissed on more than everything else. (like 1998, like 2008) It's the first place where every foreign currency seller stops to take a big leak.
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ippy



Joined: 25 Aug 2009

PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

holy crap, the won is getting killed. Its now at 1410 to 100 yen. When i asked before i think it was about 1360.
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Koreadays



Joined: 20 May 2008

PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

young_clinton wrote:
Why 1000? It's going below a 1000.

not anytime soon buddy...

those who bought last week, you are sitting pretty...
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Highwayman



Joined: 22 May 2011

PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ippy wrote:
holy crap, the won is getting killed. Its now at 1410 to 100 yen. When i asked before i think it was about 1360.

People are fleeing to the yen at the moment. It hit a post-war high against the dollar this week. The won is still 15% better against the dollar than it was a year ago.
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highwayman wrote:
ippy wrote:
holy crap, the won is getting killed. Its now at 1410 to 100 yen. When i asked before i think it was about 1360.

People are fleeing to the yen at the moment. It hit a post-war high against the dollar this week. The won is still 15% better against the dollar than it was a year ago.


do you write for the Korean media?
so you're saying the won is an undervalued piece of crap today, as opposed to being the global standard of crap a year ago when the govt was massively intervening to keep it as weak as possible.

choose a baseline that's same for all. Good times for everyone. Before the mortgage crisis hit. Let's say 1/1/2008.

the won is still 15%-20% WEAKER vs the USD from that date.
that's despite 2 rounds of massive quantitative easing that had the Koreans squealing that this was making the won stronger. (despite the fact the won was still weaker than b4 any quant easing ever began)

the Koreans were also squealing (the K media) about Japan intervening in the won, they wrote how this would undercut Korean exports. I guess the 80% rise of the yen vs crap won since 2008 is perfectly normal and natural, and an 80% price advantage just isn't "enough".
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today I read the headline:

Seoul shares fall 6.2 pct, worst loss since 2008 crisis

The value of the won vs. the U.S. dollar is going down again. Today: 1,000 won = 91 cents.
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Wildbore



Joined: 17 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You guys forget that there were two incidents where North Korea attacked south Korea in the past year and a half. The ship sinking and the artillery barrage.

Both shook the currency pretty hard. Geopolitical instability = currency crapshoot.
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wildbore wrote:
You guys forget that there were two incidents where North Korea attacked south Korea in the past year and a half. The ship sinking and the artillery barrage.

Both shook the currency pretty hard. Geopolitical instability = currency crapshoot.


point taken and accepted. But the markets settled down shortly thereafter. Such incidents have been a fixture on the Korean scene for decades.
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Korea lags in quality of life
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2011/08/123_93198.html
Quote:
By Kim Tong-hyung
08-21-2011
Korea is one of the worst places to live among rich nations, declared its own state-run think tank, which was also lukewarm about the country�s long-term economic prospects.
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