|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
|
 Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:26 am Post subject: |
 |
|
Stocks rally this morning in the US. Asian markets will follow tomorrow.
Stop claiming it's the apocalypse. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Gorf
Joined: 25 Jun 2011
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Nice job, sky-is-falling people. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Modernist
Joined: 23 Mar 2011
Location: The 90s
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| I agree that it's no time to panic--when is it?--but Larry Kudlow is not someone I would look to for economic advice. He's basically just a talking head. |
Leave Larry Kudlow ALONE!!!! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chokse
Joined: 22 May 2009
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Stocks rallied because investors saw an opportunity to buy low in the morning and sell high in the afternoon. One day does not a rally make, and the fundamentals that caused the original drop are still there.
It also does not bode well that the statement released by the Fed basically said the economy is in the dumps, recovery is stagnant, there are too many uncontrollable problems like those in Europe, and interest rates basically have to stay at zero if there is any hope of improvement. This means the Fed can no longer lower interest rates.
Back in 2008, things were very similar. The market would rally and then drop, only to rally again. This panicked buying and selling continued for several weeks until it became clear the economy was in real trouble, and then it shifted to sell, sell, sell. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chillout121
Joined: 26 Nov 2009
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 6:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
True, Chokse.
At this point it isn't clear if this was a bottom just now or if it was the end of a first leg down into what could turn into a bigger tumble.
I won't predict either but I will say Kudlow is the Devil. His drill, drill, drill rant makes me wanna barf.
Go gold! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 7:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| Modernist wrote: |
| Ooohh, National Review!! Those guys are never wrong! |
And so I guess you're some smart economist who has nothing better to do than teach English in Korea, right?  |
I agree that it's no time to panic--when is it?--but Larry Kudlow is not someone I would look to for economic advice. He's basically just a talking head. |
And you are? |
Someone who knows enough not to listen to Larry Kudlow. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| Modernist wrote: |
| Ooohh, National Review!! Those guys are never wrong! |
And so I guess you're some smart economist who has nothing better to do than teach English in Korea, right? |
I agree that it's no time to panic--when is it?--but Larry Kudlow is not someone I would look to for economic advice. He's basically just a talking head. |
And you are? |
Someone who knows enough not to listen to Larry Kudlow. |
Uh, whatever. Not saying Kudlow is right or wrong but he is an economist with a national audience and worth listening to.
And if you need another source:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday downplayed the risk of a double-dip recession in the United States, saying its domestic economy was in better shape compared to its European peers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-usa-economy-greenspan-idUSTRE7761XF20110807 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
oldtrafford
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
To the original poster. Why don't you act like your pseudo name and take a chill pill. 2012 and the world is nigh, I'm nice and safe now smoking a big fat one, sitting and waiting it out. For those playing the money market, you're doomed, society as we know it is doomed. Have peace with the herb brothers and sisters!! I'm in Thailand by the way, enjoy the Korea!!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
teacherinseoul
Joined: 18 May 2008
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 10:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
"You can always see the top, but never the bottom." There is plenty of room for further market declines, and the safest investing approach is to reduce equity exposure until the markets have 1-2 weeks of gain that shows a REAL turnaround in stocks. But 2008 was terrible, and I doubt the market scrapes THAT bottom again soon.
A repeat of 2008 could happen if the European union lets one of its countries default (e.g., Greece or Portugal), or if one of the stronger countries opts out of the Euro and strikes out on their own currency. But I don't think either scenario is happening in the next year.
Personally, I'm 50% cash, 25% gold ETF and 25% equities (one high market cap bank stock with a solid dividend). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| Modernist wrote: |
| Ooohh, National Review!! Those guys are never wrong! |
And so I guess you're some smart economist who has nothing better to do than teach English in Korea, right? |
I agree that it's no time to panic--when is it?--but Larry Kudlow is not someone I would look to for economic advice. He's basically just a talking head. |
And you are? |
Someone who knows enough not to listen to Larry Kudlow. |
Uh, whatever. Not saying Kudlow is right or wrong but he is an economist with a national audience and worth listening to.
And if you need another source:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday downplayed the risk of a double-dip recession in the United States, saying its domestic economy was in better shape compared to its European peers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-usa-economy-greenspan-idUSTRE7761XF20110807 |
IN YOUR OPINION, he is worth listening to. There are plenty of people with a national audience. That doesn't make someone a good source of information.
Greenspan is the guy who fiddled while the economy was being undermined.
As I said in my first post, I agree it's no time to panic. But for everyone of your sources saying it's not that bad, you can find another economist, analyst, broadcaster saying exactly the opposite.
The best advice is to listen to none of these guys. You think Warren Buffett listens to Kudlow? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:56 am Post subject: |
|
|
| teacherinseoul wrote: |
"You can always see the top, but never the bottom." There is plenty of room for further market declines, and the safest investing approach is to reduce equity exposure until the markets have 1-2 weeks of gain that shows a REAL turnaround in stocks. But 2008 was terrible, and I doubt the market scrapes THAT bottom again soon.
A repeat of 2008 could happen if the European union lets one of its countries default (e.g., Greece or Portugal), or if one of the stronger countries opts out of the Euro and strikes out on their own currency. But I don't think either scenario is happening in the next year.
Personally, I'm 50% cash, 25% gold ETF and 25% equities (one high market cap bank stock with a solid dividend). |
What currency is your cash in? Inflation, not that I'm saying it's going to rear its head anytime soon, means cash in not without its own risk.
A bank stock? I hope it's a good one, with the emphasis on one. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
teacherinseoul
Joined: 18 May 2008
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
| atwood wrote: |
What currency is your cash in? Inflation, not that I'm saying it's going to rear its head anytime soon, means cash in not without its own risk.
A bank stock? I hope it's a good one, with the emphasis on one. |
My cash was in won until two weeks ago, and is now in USD. I could move it into Canadian dollars easily, but the greenback is a safe bet during times of financial panic. Inflation will be much more of a concern when the markets settle down. I don't see QE3 going ahead, so it's not a threat to the USD IMO. What currency do you think is safest? Australian dollars?
As for having just one bank stock...yes, I should have diversified as a matter of principle, 'though doing so wouldn't have helped during the last week. I might be out of stocks entirely if it drops another 4%. My new rule of thumb: sell on an 8% drop, or a minimum 15% climb. Is that two rules? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
| teacherinseoul wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
What currency is your cash in? Inflation, not that I'm saying it's going to rear its head anytime soon, means cash in not without its own risk.
A bank stock? I hope it's a good one, with the emphasis on one. |
My cash was in won until two weeks ago, and is now in USD. I could move it into Canadian dollars easily, but the greenback is a safe bet during times of financial panic. Inflation will be much more of a concern when the markets settle down. I don't see QE3 going ahead, so it's not a threat to the USD IMO. What currency do you think is safest? Australian dollars?
As for having just one bank stock...yes, I should have diversified as a matter of principle, 'though doing so wouldn't have helped during the last week. I might be out of stocks entirely if it drops another 4%. My new rule of thumb: sell on an 8% drop, or a minimum 15% climb. Is that two rules? |
For safety, short-term U.S. Treasuries. Even though QE3 is doubtful, the Fed is buying and that's keeping the dollar weak.
You gave your rules for selling. When do you buy?
Personally, I'd be thinking about selling gold. It may have further to go, but you might sell some to lock in at least some gains. You can always buy back in.
Have you ever looked at Harry Browne's Permanent portfolio? Since you like gold and cash, it might appeal to you. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| Modernist wrote: |
| Ooohh, National Review!! Those guys are never wrong! |
And so I guess you're some smart economist who has nothing better to do than teach English in Korea, right? |
I agree that it's no time to panic--when is it?--but Larry Kudlow is not someone I would look to for economic advice. He's basically just a talking head. |
And you are? |
Someone who knows enough not to listen to Larry Kudlow. |
Uh, whatever. Not saying Kudlow is right or wrong but he is an economist with a national audience and worth listening to.
And if you need another source:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Sunday downplayed the risk of a double-dip recession in the United States, saying its domestic economy was in better shape compared to its European peers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-usa-economy-greenspan-idUSTRE7761XF20110807 |
IN YOUR OPINION, he is worth listening to. There are plenty of people with a national audience. That doesn't make someone a good source of information.
Greenspan is the guy who fiddled while the economy was being undermined.
As I said in my first post, I agree it's no time to panic. But for everyone of your sources saying it's not that bad, you can find another economist, analyst, broadcaster saying exactly the opposite.
The best advice is to listen to none of these guys. You think Warren Buffett listens to Kudlow? |
My opinion and anyone with half a brain considering the wannabes on this board. You've posted no links or proof to back up your claims.
I'm not saying another recession won't happen but I'm not buying the "sky is falling" cries of many media outlets just yet.
This time investors are worried that Europe's debt crisis could slam an already weak U.S. economy. But few analysts think it will do as much damage as the collapse in home prices and mortgage-backed securities did in 2008, when they caused a credit squeeze and banks feared lending to each other.
http://www.herald-dispatch.com/business/x1974076206/Europe-crisis-revives-08-fears-but-risks-are-less |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
tran.huongthu
Joined: 23 May 2011
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Stay on the sidelines and BTFD in gold. The CME is going to push gold down with margins just like they did with silver, so that way the big players can load the boat. After they do you should go all in for the next leg up. You could always buy in at different intervals too if you are not sure when the bottom will be in gold. Looks like the CME raised rates already and it went down already from 1820 to 1780.
Otherwise I'd suggest buying bonds in countries such as Switzerland, Australia, Germany etc. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
