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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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 Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:17 am Post subject: |
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The 'fall in crime' is in large part the police pulling your leg:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324712504578131360684277812.html
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| At the same time, medical data and other surveys in the U.S. show a rising number of serious injuries from assaults with guns and knives. The estimated number of people wounded seriously enough by gunshots to require a hospital stay, rather than treatment and release, rose 47% to 30,759 in 2011 from 20,844 in 2001, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program. |
You have to start with the assumption that everything every single person in the gov is telling you is a lie. We're past governing and focused on public relations. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
The 'fall in crime' is in large part the police pulling your leg:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324712504578131360684277812.html
| Quote: |
| At the same time, medical data and other surveys in the U.S. show a rising number of serious injuries from assaults with guns and knives. The estimated number of people wounded seriously enough by gunshots to require a hospital stay, rather than treatment and release, rose 47% to 30,759 in 2011 from 20,844 in 2001, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program. |
You have to start with the assumption that everything every single person in the gov is telling you is a lie. We're past governing and focused on public relations. |
Right.
Anyway, urban life in the USA is definitely one area that has improved during my lifetime, that I am sure of. Even in places that don't have a S&F policy.
And if the stats are juked, so to speak, I guess I should just ignore them even if they helped justify S&F? Good to know.
edit: fixed sentence
Last edited by bucheon bum on Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:43 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
You have to start with the assumption that everything every single person in the gov is telling you is a lie. We're past governing and focused on public relations. |
I agree. I don't believe a word Bloomberg or Ray Kelly tell us about Stop and Frisk. |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
You have to start with the assumption that everything every single person in the gov is telling you is a lie. We're past governing and focused on public relations. |
I agree. I don't believe a word Bloomberg or Ray Kelly tell us about Stop and Frisk. |
Fair enough. They're (the police) likely going to start over reporting (or more honestly reporting) crime now to try and get the policy back. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
You have to start with the assumption that everything every single person in the gov is telling you is a lie. We're past governing and focused on public relations. |
I agree. I don't believe a word Bloomberg or Ray Kelly tell us about Stop and Frisk. |
Fair enough. They're (the police) likely going to start over reporting (or more honestly reporting) crime now to try and get the policy back. |
They have another option: they can comply to the judge's recommendations and restore a non-invasive, friendlier Stop and Frisk.
You guys did not think some New York judge had the courage or ambition to disregard Terry v. Ohio, did you? |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
You guys did not think some New York judge had the courage or ambition to disregard Terry v. Ohio, did you? |
No, I'm completely willing to believe that. I wouldn't even call it courage or ambition. What, exactly, is a judge who is near retirement and only taking part-time case loads risking with such a ruling? Looking a bit silly when it gets overturned on appeal?
This kind of quote is pretty ludicrous though:
"No one should live in fear of being stopped whenever he leaves his home to go about the activities of daily life. ... Targeting young black and Hispanic men for stops based on the alleged criminal conduct of other young black or Hispanic men violates the bedrock principles of equality."
I don't know what exactly she thinks "equality" means, but when a solid 90%+ of a district's crimes are committed by young black or Hispanic men, focusing your crime-stopping efforts on young black and Hispanic men and stopping them at a proportion "equal" to their participation in reported crimes seems both rational and fair. Stopping low-crime demographics just to make everyone feel "equal," on the other hand, would itself be bizarre, a waste of resources, and unfair in a much more literal and intuitive sense.
If there's an issue with stop & frisk, it does not lie in the "racial bias" (read: use of actual data) employed. I'm willing to consider arguments that random police stops are themselves psychologically harmful, but if we accept in principle that the random stop is acceptable, then the fact that the most crime-inclined demographics end up being the ones most stopped is not unjust. |
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ghostrider
Joined: 27 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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At least we know that NYC has been much more successful in reducing crime than the rest of the US:
"The forty-percent drop in crime that occurred across the U.S. from 1991 to 2000 remains largely an unsolved mystery. Even more puzzling is the eighty-percent drop over nineteen years in New York City. Twice as long and twice as large, it is the largest crime decline on record."
http://www.amazon.com/The-City-that-Became-Safe/dp/0199844429 |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:19 am Post subject: |
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| ghostrider wrote: |
At least we know that NYC has been much more successful in reducing crime than the rest of the US:
"The forty-percent drop in crime that occurred across the U.S. from 1991 to 2000 remains largely an unsolved mystery. Even more puzzling is the eighty-percent drop over nineteen years in New York City. Twice as long and twice as large, it is the largest crime decline on record."
http://www.amazon.com/The-City-that-Became-Safe/dp/0199844429 |
Which occured before S&F policy began. Other cities such as even New Orelans and Baltimore have seen crime rates drop more than NYC since 2002. Of course by that point NYC was already fairly safe while those two places were crime ridden. |
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ghostrider
Joined: 27 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| ghostrider wrote: |
At least we know that NYC has been much more successful in reducing crime than the rest of the US:
"The forty-percent drop in crime that occurred across the U.S. from 1991 to 2000 remains largely an unsolved mystery. Even more puzzling is the eighty-percent drop over nineteen years in New York City. Twice as long and twice as large, it is the largest crime decline on record."
http://www.amazon.com/The-City-that-Became-Safe/dp/0199844429 |
Which occured before S&F policy began. Other cities such as even New Orelans and Baltimore have seen crime rates drop more than NYC since 2002. Of course by that point NYC was already fairly safe while those two places were crime ridden. |
Crime continued to drop after the policy was implemented which means it could have been a contributing factor.
"My own research and a growing body of police studies show that stopping and questioning is an effective crime deterrent....
"Data from the few cities that report police stops show their effectiveness. My trend analysis with SUNY Albany professor Robert Purtell found that the increased use of stops correlated significantly with accelerating drops in most of the major crimes. A Harvard study of policing in Los Angeles under William Bratton, when crime dropped significantly, reported a surge in stops by the L.A.P.D. (with per capita stop rate higher than N.Y.P.D.)....
"This is most beneficial for black and Hispanic communities that experience the greatest victimization rates, and particularly for young black and Hispanic males. They are disproportionately victims and perpetrators of violent crime. As a result of active crime-prevention techniques like stop and frisk, they are being arrested and imprisoned at a drastically lower rate. The number of inmates from New York City in state prisons is down 42 percent since 2000, while the rest of the state showed a 17 percent increase. This too is an important claim for the effectiveness of police stops."
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/07/17/does-stop-and-frisk-reduce-crime/stop-and-frisk-has-lowered-crime-in-other-cities
People in black and Hispanic communities may complain that they are being targeted by the policy, but they may be benefiting the most from it too. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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| ghostrider wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| ghostrider wrote: |
At least we know that NYC has been much more successful in reducing crime than the rest of the US:
"The forty-percent drop in crime that occurred across the U.S. from 1991 to 2000 remains largely an unsolved mystery. Even more puzzling is the eighty-percent drop over nineteen years in New York City. Twice as long and twice as large, it is the largest crime decline on record."
http://www.amazon.com/The-City-that-Became-Safe/dp/0199844429 |
Which occured before S&F policy began. Other cities such as even New Orelans and Baltimore have seen crime rates drop more than NYC since 2002. Of course by that point NYC was already fairly safe while those two places were crime ridden. |
Crime continued to drop after the policy was implemented which means it could have been a contributing factor.
"My own research and a growing body of police studies show that stopping and questioning is an effective crime deterrent....
"Data from the few cities that report police stops show their effectiveness. My trend analysis with SUNY Albany professor Robert Purtell found that the increased use of stops correlated significantly with accelerating drops in most of the major crimes. A Harvard study of policing in Los Angeles under William Bratton, when crime dropped significantly, reported a surge in stops by the L.A.P.D. (with per capita stop rate higher than N.Y.P.D.)....
"This is most beneficial for black and Hispanic communities that experience the greatest victimization rates, and particularly for young black and Hispanic males. They are disproportionately victims and perpetrators of violent crime. As a result of active crime-prevention techniques like stop and frisk, they are being arrested and imprisoned at a drastically lower rate. The number of inmates from New York City in state prisons is down 42 percent since 2000, while the rest of the state showed a 17 percent increase. This too is an important claim for the effectiveness of police stops."
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/07/17/does-stop-and-frisk-reduce-crime/stop-and-frisk-has-lowered-crime-in-other-cities
People in black and Hispanic communities may complain that they are being targeted by the policy, but they may be benefiting the most from it too. |
LA you say?
From your same link:
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| The drop in murders in New York City, for example, from 2002 until now has been about 12 percent, from 587 annually to 536. During the same period, the number of murders declined by 43 percent in Washington and by 50 percent in Los Angeles, two cities that have less aggressive stop and frisk tactics. |
And I have a hunch stops in LA are more via car than pedestrians. The stops might have been for vehicle and traffic offenses (broken tail light for example).
I guess we will see soon enough... |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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Crime is dropping in LA and DC because the black population is shrinking.
Ok, people. This is a tool to get blacks to leave the cities. In Chicago they close public schools and demolish housing projects (and those blacks go to Wisconsin and Minn). In NYC they use high rents and stop and frisk. In LA the Mexicans do it for free. In DC the FedGov is expanding the payrolls and whites/non-blacks are moving into DC and driving out the blacks. Blacks are leaving the major NE cities and crime is decreasing as a result.
The correlation between crime and blacks is approx .85 (Ron Unz crunched the numbers):
http://www.ronunz.org/2013/07/20/race-and-crime-in-america/
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| These charts demonstrate that over the last twenty-five years the weighted correlations for each of the crime categories against the percentages of whites, Hispanics, and “immigrants” (i.e. Hispanics-plus-Asians) have fluctuated in the general range of -0.20 to -0.60. Interestingly enough, for most of the last decade the presence of Hispanics and immigrants has become noticeably less associated with crime than the presence of whites, although that latter category obviously exhibits large regional heterogeneity. Meanwhile, in the case of blacks, the weighted crime correlations have steadily risen from 0.60 to around 0.80 or above, almost always now falling within between 0.75 and 0.85. |
On NYC:
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Similar anomalies appear in the racial crime calculations that have been the central focus of our analysis. Based on its racial composition, we would expect New York City’s homicide rate to be some 70% higher than it actually is, with robbery and violent crime also being far more widespread. Cities like San Jose and San Diego may have homicide and violent crime rates only half that of New York City, but given the stark differences in their underlying demographics, it is New York City’s Finest who deserves praise for their remarkable effectiveness in crime prevention. Evaluating the apparent success or failure of urban law enforcement policies without candidly considering a city’s demographic challenges may lead to incorrect policy judgments.
Little of New York City’s success in crime prevention seems due to the relative size of its police force, which is roughly similar to those of Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Boston on a per capita basis, and far below that of Washington, D.C., all cities whose crime rates reflect their demographics. So it appears that New York City’s crime-fighting methods rather than merely the number of its officers has been the crucial factor.
Ideas have consequences, as do attempts to avoid them. For most of the last twenty years, the policing methods implemented under mayors Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg won enormous national praise as they so dramatically cut New York crime rates: murders dropped by over three-quarters. But during the last few years, some of these same policies have begun receiving widespread criticism among those pundits who may have forgotten just how bad things were two decades ago.
Our simple statistical analysis obviously does not allow us to disentangle the relative importance of the different factors behind New York City’s success. Since the early 1990s, the city implemented a “community policing” model as well as pioneering the rapid use of local crime data to pinpoint dangerous hotspots and allocate resources more accurately. But other elements of the package have included strict, even harsh policing methods, such as the widespread use of “stop-and-frisk” to reduce gun violence. Denouncing these techniques as unconstitutional or racially discriminatory may be perfectly justified, but those who do so must consider the trade-offs involved, including the very real possibility of a 70% rise in homicides if local policing effectiveness declined to levels found in the rest of the country.
Let us compare the demographic and crime trends of New York City and Washington, twin abodes of our East Coast urban elite. Between 1985 and 2011, Washington’s homicide rate dropped by 26%, robbery fell 27%, and violent crime in general was cut by 30%; but the city’s black population also dropped by 27% during this same period. Meanwhile, New York City’s corresponding declines in crime were far greater, 67%, 78%, and 67% respectively, but were accompanied by only a small 7% decline in black numbers. For all these serious crime rates to decline at nearly ten times the rate of their primary racial determinant is absolutely remarkable, a combination that left the city an exceptional outlier among America’s major urban centers.
Put another way, if America’s other cities with large black populations had somehow managed to achieve the same surprisingly low crime rates as New York City then most of the high racial crime correlations that have been the central findings of this article would disappear. Conversely, if New York City were excluded from our current national statistics, many of the existing racial crime correlations would exceed 0.90. These are objective facts and well-intentioned analysts who sharply criticize New York City policing methods should recognize that they may face some unpalatable choices.
Perhaps further research would establish that the widely-lauded elements of local police practice are the ones primarily responsible for such results, and the more controversial methods may safely be eliminated without negative consequences. But for whatever combination of reasons, the overall results achieved by New York City have been quite remarkable and caution should be exercised before drastic changes are made in such a successful model. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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Requiring that all stop-and-frisk actions be recorded by cams would at least check unnecessarily harsh treatment of profiled suspects - and could also serve to enhance law-enforcement data bases. Arguments that such a requirement would lessen the effectiveness of the policy - or cramp the style of police - don't seem very convincing, in my opinion.
Furthermore, I think that technology could be developed/used to minimize the invasiveness of the stop-and-frisk process by targeting only people known to be carrying weapons of some sort. Of course, that would work much better in places where strict gun control laws were in place. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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The obvious answer is to make drugs legal and make it socially acceptable for everyone to openly carry firearms. Thus, the two biggest targets of stop & frisk are eliminated and the program becomes unnecssary. People just walk around taking hits from the crack pipe in the open while having an AK strapped to their back. What could go wrong with mixing PCP and semi-automatic firearms?
But people will say that such a common sense solution is just 'Crazy Talk'. |
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