Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Bulsajo]

Wot?!?
You are, but from Five Eagles I'd prefer an ETA on the return of the Messiah...
[guess I should have put a smiley on that post or something]

[jinglejangle]

I don't worry about China's economy in general crashing.

Any individual business, yes, it is a very unstable enviornment, but generally the trend is upwards. Besides, when they are starting from such a low level, a business can start up, run a few years, and then be driven out of business by a hundred new competitors, and still have had a net benifit to the country.

For example, regarding Magnesium production, which I admit I know nothing about, yes, if they flood the market to 150% capacity then many of those little companies will flounder, but the country will still derive benefit from having suddenly monopolized world magnesium production. In other words, for the individual companies there will be turmoil and upheaval, but the country now has the world's mightiest magnesium production sector.

Of course, this assumes that China had a much smaller infrastructure for that industry before, and I don't know if that's true or not.

[fiveeagles]

[Kuros]

[jinglejangle]

You make a powerful arguement. Historical precedent in the region does give one reason for pause.

Once again my enthusiasm has been reined in by a calmer head.

I retract my previous statement, but I'll point out that even with the crashes, the Japanese and ROK economies are still light years ahead of where they were 50 years ago (granted, they had recently been bombed to ashes 50 years ago). Japan's economy has stagnated, but they are still a first orld nation and a world leader. Economic downturns are inevitable, but they are also quite survivable.

I still do think that China is likely to wind up being one of two or three major world players 20 years down the road. That is if they can avoid war or serious internal strife.

I want to add one thing regarding unemployment, namely that the Chinese peasents may have been technically employed back in the day, but they were still starving. In a country of that size even small employment fluctuations are likely to feature large numbers, and I still would tend to argue that the average income for the middle to lower class has risen significantly.

I won't debate with you that mass unemployment is a problem for them, but I will argue that it is not yet anywhere near catastrophic.

Hey, have a great trip, and if you think about it when you come back, I would enjoy reading whatever source material you want to link here or send me.

[jinglejangle]

This isn't quite the same subject, but I'm currently reading a summarized translation of "Unrestricted Warfare" which was a very influential work of Military Philosophy written by two Chinese officers a few years back.
They are quite insightful, and well worth reading.

Also, my new favorite quote is the Chinese Senior Colonel Qiao Ling, speaking to the Washington Post: "You Americans established a government with three seperate branches to prevent tyranny but what are you giving to the world?.... ....Now, I'm not saying that everything the US does is wrong, but if you do do something wrong, who is capable of correcting you?"

No no, don't flame me. I'm not for a second proposing that the Chinese should be granted oversight over US foreign policy, nor accepted as a moral athourity where freedom and human rights are concerned. Still, it is an interesting statement, and there is a bit of a quandry there.

[fiveeagles]