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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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 Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| They're in jail more because they commit more crime. |
Yep.
According to the FBI's stats for 2009, of all the individuals who committed murder that year, 37% were black (5,890). Since blacks are 12% of the general population, this means there were 16 black murderers per 100,000 blacks. There were 5,286 white murderers, but whites are 75% of the general population, meaning 2 white murderers per 100,000 whites.
But these are only the cases where the race of the murderer is known. Cases where the murderer is unknown constitute over a quarter of all murder cases (4,339). In these cases, it is very likely that approximately half are committed by blacks, since this is the rate in the cases where the race of the murder is known. So we can add 2,000 onto the known rates and get some idea of the real figure - black: 7,890 and white: 7,286. Again taking into account the fact that whites outnumber blacks by 6-to-1 in the general population, the black murderer rate becomes 22 per 100,000 blacks, and the white murderer rate 3 per 100,000 whites.
As everyone knows, however, the vast majority of the victims of murder, when the murderer is black, are also black. According to the FBI in 2004, 92% of all murders committed by blacks had a black victim.
So not only would it be entirely perverse if whites were stopped, searched & arrested by police more often than blacks, the police in doing so are benefiting the black population more than anyone, since it is blacks who are by far the likeliest to be killed by blacks. It's not nice to be stopped & searched by the cops when you've done nothing wrong in your life, but blacks being affected more than whites is a statistical inevitability and probably saves many black lives. |
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travel zen
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Location: Good old Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:43 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, so lets stop and harass all blacks, its good for them ! No matter how you phrase racism, its still racism dude.
Do you know who commits crimes more than any other? Poor desperate people! At all times, in every era of Mankind. Stop picking on 'black people' or any other people.
That's getting old. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| travel zen wrote: |
Yeah, so lets stop and harass all blacks, its good for them ! No matter how you phrase racism, its still racism dude.
Do you know who commits crimes more than any other? Poor desperate people! At all times, in every era of Mankind. Stop picking on 'black people' or any other people.
That's getting old. |
I'd say what's getting old is responding to statistical data with emotional appeals. How about responding to data with data? For example, you could link a study (if you can find one) that shows impoverished whites and impoverished blacks commit crimes at similar rates, which would suggest it really is just poverty. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| travel zen wrote: |
Yeah, so lets stop and harass all blacks, its good for them ! No matter how you phrase racism, its still racism dude.
Do you know who commits crimes more than any other? Poor desperate people! At all times, in every era of Mankind. Stop picking on 'black people' or any other people.
That's getting old. |
I'd say what's getting old is responding to statistical data with emotional appeals. How about responding to data with data? For example, you could link a study (if you can find one) that shows impoverished whites and impoverished blacks commit crimes at similar rates, which would suggest it really is just poverty. |
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/06/why_do_the_poor.html |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Travel Zen wrote: |
Do you know who commits crimes more than any other? Poor desperate people! At all times, in every era of Mankind. Stop picking on 'black people' or any other people.
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China and India have considerably more poor desperate people than the US and have homicide rates of 2.36 and 2.82 respectively, compared to 11.8 in Louisiana and 7.7 in Maryland. I can assure you that poor Chinese and poor Indians are far worse off than poor African-Americans who are protected by all sorts of social programs. Indeed, if India was an American state, it'd have the 35th highest homicide rates.
Poor people in India look like this. Poor African-Americans look like this. Poor Indians actually face starvation; poor American blacks are often life-threateningly overweight. But the latter are far likelier to murder you than the former. |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:10 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/06/why_do_the_poor.html |
Poor people are far likelier to commit murder than wealthy people, but the relationship isn't any more sophisticated than that, because the lack of a dose > response relationship necessarily demonstrates the lack of a cause > effect relationship. Why people commit murder is subjective and unlikely to have a single, overarching explanation. However, if one wished to cling to the comforting claim that poverty is what causes murder, it would make sense to examine the causes of poverty. If racism against blacks accounts for at least some black poverty, which I accept, another reason is likely to be failed government policies that were actually intended to help. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:20 am Post subject: |
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| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Travel Zen wrote: |
Do you know who commits crimes more than any other? Poor desperate people! At all times, in every era of Mankind. Stop picking on 'black people' or any other people.
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China and India have considerably more poor desperate people than the US and have homicide rates of 2.36 and 2.82 respectively, compared to 11.8 in Louisiana and 7.7 in Maryland. I can assure you that poor Chinese and poor Indians are far worse off than poor African-Americans who are protected by all sorts of social programs. Indeed, if India was an American state, it'd have the 35th highest homicide rates.
Poor people in India look like this. Poor African-Americans look like this. Poor Indians actually face starvation; poor American blacks are often life-threateningly overweight. But the latter are far likelier to murder you than the former. |
Its not so much poverty itself, but a disparity of incomes that leads to greater crime. |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:41 am Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
Its not so much poverty itself, but a disparity of incomes that leads to greater crime. |
The slimming-down of the welfare state/ benefits system is in sight in the UK. New "Thatcher-style" austerity cuts announced yesterday may result in the armies of the council estate unemployed being forced to find work, starting their own businesses, or turning to crime. The dependency culture whereby a new 'unemployable' underclass was mushrooming off the back of the taxpayer is drawing to a close. |
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Easy Rider
Joined: 20 Oct 2010
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:49 am Post subject: |
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As long as they keep some remainder of financial assistance available for those genuinely out of but seeking work.
I mean if you pay into the system - you must be able to take out of it when needed also, or revolt happens. |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Its not so much poverty itself, but a disparity of incomes that leads to greater crime. |
If you go through the list of countries according to their income inequality, the correlation between 'countries that suck' and 'huge gap between top and bottom' looks good. Meanwhile, every nice country in the world has low levels of income inequality (range: 5-to-1 to 18-to-1), but it's approximately 16-to-1 in the US, which explains, one might think, the far higher homicide rates in the US.
The twin problem here is always Singapore & Hong Kong, which are more unequal than the US and have homicide rates of 11% that of the US and 4% that of Louisana - America's blackest state. Singapore & Hong Kong are the most unequal societies in the developed world - almost twice as unequal as France and thrice as unequal as Germany. The inequality hypothesis predicts that Hong Kong & Singapore, by developed world standards, ought be the most dysfunctional. They aren't, so the hypothesis is falsified.
It's falsified further when you compare selected countries:
Pakistan is a more equal society than the Netherlands (I know where I'd rather live)
The US has greater income inequality than Trinidad & Tobago
The Ukraine is a more equal society than the UK
France has greater income inequality than Ethiopia
Income inequality in the Philippines is approximately the same as Portugal
New Zealand's and Russia's income gap is similar, but you're seven-times likelier to be killed in Russia
Jamaica has a similar gap between rich & poor as Hong Kong & Singapore, but the homcide rate is larger by 116-to-1 |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:10 am Post subject: |
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Also, what about family income inequality by US state? Below, each US state ranked in terms of income inequality (2006 figs) with its homicide rate parenthesized.
Red = 10 most homicidal states
Blue = 10 least homicidal states
bold red = most homicidal state
bold blue = least homicidal state
1 Arizona (5.4)
2 Texas (5.4)
3 New York (4)
4 New Jersey (3.7)
5 Kentucky (4.1)
6 Tennessee (7.3)
7 Florida (5.5)
8 California (5.3)
9 North Carolina (5.3)
10 Pennsylvania (5.2)
11 Massachusetts (2.6)
12 Maryland (7.7)
13 Arkansas (6.2)
14 Alabama (6.9)
15 Washington (2.7)
16 Louisiana (11.8 )
17 Kansas (4.2)
18 New Mexico (8.7)
19 Colorado (3.5)
20 Illinois (6)
21 Michigan (6.3)
22 West Virginia (4.6)
23 Virginia (4.4)
24 Connecticut (3)
25 Mississippi (6.4)
26 Hawaii (1.7)
27 Ohio (4.5)
28 Rhode Island (2.9)
29 South Carolina (6.3)
30 Indiana (4.8 )
31 Maine (2)
32 Oregon (2.2)
33 Minnesota (1.4)
34 Utah (1.3)
35 New Hampshire (0.8 )
36 Georgia (5.8 )
37 Oklahoma (6.2)
38 Missouri (6.4)
39 Nevada (5.9)
40 Vermont (1.1)
41 Delaware (4.6)
42 Montana (2.9)
43 Idaho (1.4)
44 North Dakota (1.5)
45 Alaska (3.1)
46 Wisconsin (2.5)
47 South Dakota (2.6)
48 Iowa (1.1)
49 Nebraska (2.2)
50 Wyoming (2.4)
Conclusions:
- no dose > response relationship between income inequality and homicide rates, therefore no cause > effect relationship
- some correlation between income inequality and homicide rates, but not a remotely sufficient one to establish causation;
- strong correlation between most populous states and most unequal, but top 10 most unequal states' homicide rates mostly approx national average |
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travel zen
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Location: Good old Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
I can assure you that poor Chinese and poor Indians are far worse off than poor African-Americans who are protected by all sorts of social programs. Indeed, if India was an American state, it'd have the 35th highest homicide rates.
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Always with race, too bad the Nazis were crushed. The only people I know who dwell on race so much besides were the Americans..and for what purpose I wonder?
These 'statistics' are wholly American and should be seen as an American phenominon, studied as such. Factors in America (such as social help/lack of social infrastructure) make many parts of America a third world living in a developed country. Canada also has a higher crime rate up in Nunavut, where Native people are 99% of the population, but does that mean that Natives are 'prone to violence'? Are they sub-human as you like to picture blacks? Another question is: What are blacks? Are they the new immigrants from Africa? How dark does your skin have to be to be black? What percentage of your genees have to be from Africa? Which parts of Africa? Maybe Himler whould know....
Race as a statistic is pure evil, but I predict all of this will become popular again..... |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
| Its not so much poverty itself, but a disparity of incomes that leads to greater crime. |
If you go through the list of countries according to their income inequality, the correlation between 'countries that suck' and 'huge gap between top and bottom' looks good. Meanwhile, every nice country in the world has low levels of income inequality (range: 5-to-1 to 18-to-1), but it's approximately 16-to-1 in the US, which explains, one might think, the far higher homicide rates in the US.
The twin problem here is always Singapore & Hong Kong, which are more unequal than the US and have homicide rates of 11% that of the US and 4% that of Louisana - America's blackest state. Singapore & Hong Kong are the most unequal societies in the developed world - almost twice as unequal as France and thrice as unequal as Germany. The inequality hypothesis predicts that Hong Kong & Singapore, by developed world standards, ought be the most dysfunctional. They aren't, so the hypothesis is falsified.
It's falsified further when you compare selected countries:
Pakistan is a more equal society than the Netherlands (I know where I'd rather live)
The US has greater income inequality than Trinidad & Tobago
The Ukraine is a more equal society than the UK
France has greater income inequality than Ethiopia
Income inequality in the Philippines is approximately the same as Portugal
New Zealand's and Russia's income gap is similar, but you're seven-times likelier to be killed in Russia
Jamaica has a similar gap between rich & poor as Hong Kong & Singapore, but the homcide rate is larger by 116-to-1 |
Notice I never said it causes crime, but rather it leads to it. I suppose I should have been more specific, but of course there isn't only one factor in a crime rate. Singapore and Hong Kong are unique situations in many ways so they should be treated as outliers in most statistical samples. |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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Since Singapore & Hong Kong differ markedly from the rest of the developed world, yes, I'm afraid we shall probably have to consider them outliers. I've no problem with that at all. Should we start executing drug-smugglers? No, we shouldn't. It works in Singapore, but it wouldn't work here. We should legalize drugs.
But so is the US an outlier (very high homicide rate, larger than usual black population for a majority white country, large gap between rich & poor).
And so is Japan an outlier (most equal society on Earth, probably a reflection of its culture).
And so is India (very low homicide rate and unusually small gap between rich & poor for a country with a per capita gdp of $3,000 - half that of Angola)
And so is China (larger gap between rich & poor than the US and half its homicide rate; poorer on average than Botswana).
And so is Trinidad & Tobago (twice as rich as Thailand, similar gap between rich & poor as Thailand, but five-to-six times as many homicides).
When you really get down to it, there are so many exceptions to the norm, one wonders whether the norm even exists. Nevertheless, an alien observer of humanity might reasonably conclude that a smaller gap between rich & poor is broadly what characterizes the developed world. He shall, of course, have to overlook Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Laos, the Ukraine, Vietnam, Yemen & Ethiopia. |
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conrad2
Joined: 05 Nov 2009
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| Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2010 1:55 am Post subject: |
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| What would happen to the homocide rate of various countries if they had the same access to firearms as people in the United States? |
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