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Electoral College: O 338- M 200 (Updated 11/4)
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005
PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Gatsby: your continuing threats about what will happen if we do not elect B. Obama grow tiring. It will prove we are not ready for an African-American president and are therefore racists; it will upset "the rest of the world"; it will leave the electorate very disgruntled and unhappy.

Dave's ESL Cafe temper tantrums and tirades. Come back down to earth, please.

Quote:
How will Obama supporters react if he does not win on Tuesday? One in five will be angry; one in four will be upset but not angry. Most Obama supporters, however, say they will be disappointed but not angry or upset if McCain wins.


CNN Reports

And this...

Gatsby wrote:
If I were a savvy Democrat, and a pollster queried me, I would say I was voting for McCain.


What makes you think that at least some savvy-like-you poll respondents have not been behaving this way or the other-way-around since this election cycle began, hmm?
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Moving back to the discussion of polling...

Nate Silver had this to say in his most recent post over at 538:

Quote:
Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race. After accounting for a third-party vote, which looks as though it will come in at an aggregate of 2 percent or so (after doing some work on this tonight, I concluded that I had been slightly underestimating the third-party vote before), I am showing only about 2.7 percent of the electorate left to allocate between the two major-party candidates. Even if John McCain were to win 70 perecnt of the remaining undecideds (which I don't think is likely), that would only be worth a net of about a point for him. Frankly, McCain's winning scenarios mainly involve the polls having been wrong in the first place -- because of a Bradley Effect or something else. It is unlikely that the polls will "tighten" substantially further -- especially when Obama already has over 50 percent of the vote.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
November 4 Update

This should be the last pre-election up-date. MINNESOTA is now LEANING and NORTH CAROLINA has gone back to being a TOSS UP state.

With 10 states that are TOSS UP states and another 8 that are LEANING to one or the other, plus the several states that were in play over the last 6 weeks, it looks like our 2-party republic is in good shape.

SOLID for Obama: 238 down to 228
SOLID for McCain: 127 down to 118

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 14 electoral votes
South Dakota (3) +8.3 for McCain
Arkansas (6) +9.3 for McCain
West Virginia (5) +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 to +8.5 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 50 electoral votes
Minnesota (10) +9.8
Nevada (5): +3.5 to +7.5 to +7.0 to +6.5 to +5.8 to +6.2 for Obama.
Pennsylvania (21) +9.3 to +8.5 to +7.0 to +7.6 for Obama

Colorado (9):+6.5 to +8.3 to +7.2 to +6.5 to +6.2 to +5.5 for Obama
New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 to +7.3 for Obama

TOSS UP Obama: 60 electoral votes
Ohio (20):+6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 to +5.8 to +5.6 to +4.2 to +3.2 for Obama
Virginia (13): +7.4 to +7.6 to +6.5 to +6.0 to +3.8 to +4.3 for Obama
Florida (27) +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 to +3.5 to +4.2 to +1.8 for Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 68 electoral votes
North Carolina (15) +1.3 to +2.6 to +1.3 to +0.3 Obama to +0.6 McCain
Missouri (11) +1.0 to +0.6 to +0.2 to 0.4 Obama to +0.6 to +0.7 to +0.5 McCain
Indiana (11): +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 Obama to +1.7 to +0.5 to +1.4 for McCain
Georgia (15) +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 to +4.2 to +3.0 to +4.0 for McCain

North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0 to +5.2 to +3.5 McCain
Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 to +2.0 to +3.8 McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 30)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 53 = 364 (Nov 1)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 42 = 353 (Nov 2)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 40 (278) + TOSS UP 75 = 353 (Nov 3)
SOLID 228 + LEANING 50 (278) + TOSS UP 60 = 338 (Nov 4)

McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 21 = 163 (Oct 30)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 32 = 174 (Nov 1)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 5 (132) + TOSS UP 53 = 185 (Nov 2)
SOLID 118 + LEANING 14 (132) + TOSS UP 53 = 185 (Nov 3)
SOLID 118 + LEANING 14 (132) + TOSS UP 68 = 200 (Nov 4)
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