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Ron Paul's economic plan
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friedman, like Bernake was a student of the depression. Friedman argued that the central bank has to be aggressive when needed, but robotic in times of stability. Bernake took this to a more extreme level, and this is why we see what we see from the Fed today. The quote you heard was referring to times of total stability, not volatility, as Friedman's position is much more nuanced in that situation.

The point of the liberty dollar, and what got this started, is that it should be "real currency". This was Ron Paul's point. That private citizens ought to be able to compete with the central government.

Yes, really. In Singapore, for example, inflation is at a 25 year high. In the USA, it is seriously understated. There is wide academic debate about the legitimacy of the CPI figures. You dig research, check it out.

Quote:
Inflation has been kept in check because central banking has realized when they increase the money supply, they create inflation.


Yes, they 'realized' this but did not practice it. You can look at money supply figures and compare them with public or private measures of inflation. The supply has boomed hugely, but inflation has not caught up, yet. This is because the money was put under China's mattress and therefore did not have the inflationary effect upon the domestic supply. Now, China is going to invest this cash, as will the Arabs, Singaporeans and others, and when this credit enters the domestic market (as it is starting to) the inflation will increase mucho.

The new idea is to use "inflation targeting" (my area of quasi-expertise) as a reverse of Bretton Woods to try and gain control of the money supply. But as markets melt-down, conventional Friedman-Bernake wisdom says you have to create credit to increase aggregate demand (the opposite of inflation targeting). This is fueling an inflationary surge, while the economy decreases. This is causing the Central Bankers nightmare: stagflation.

It is because of stagflation (what Japan has had for a decade) that I'm so freaked about the economy. It if does emerge, all bets are off.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friedman makes an interesting point about the fed. It's very hard to find any economist who is an expert in monetary policy who has anything bad to say about the fed. The vast majority of such economists are employed by the fed.

Now, thepeelpub, are you arguing for the elimination of "fiat currency"?
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
It's very hard to find any economist who is an expert in monetary policy who has anything bad to say about the fed.


Ahh, no. We are talking about different things here. You can discuss the idea of an institution, the policies that govern an institution and how it is actually run. Most economists will agree that some kind of central bank is needed (but not all, and certainly not all economists who deal in monetary policy) but there is huge wide massive disagreement on what the institution ought to do, when and why.

Quote:
The vast majority of such economists are employed by the fed.


Many monetary economists are employed by the Fed, but also experts in monetary policy end up in (or as) private equity, hedge funds, investment banks, bond traders, dealers, brokers, advisor's, professors. Understanding the inner workings of this system is a highly valuable tool for employers.

Quote:
Now, thepeelpub, are you arguing for the elimination of "fiat currency"?


No, my position is far more nuanced. The institution of a central bank and fiat currency can be effective and positive on balance if the right humans govern it and the right policies regulate it. I would say that right now we have a bad set of regulations (almost none) and an even worse human pushing the buttons. Bernake spent his life studying and researching the printing of money and the government turned around and gave him the printing presses.

But I would say that a prohibition on competing currencies is a bad idea. They should be encouraged. Just like I don't want Wal-Mart to be the only store to buy milk at (and able to unilaterally set prices), I don't want one organization to be the only entity able to set the price of money/credit. I remember something about absolute power...

peelpub?
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 1:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thepeel wrote:
peelpub?


You're Canadian. I thought "the peel" was a reference to the famous Peel pub.

http://travel.yahoo.com/p-travelguide-2803555-peel_pub_montreal-i

An institution for the McGill set.
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 1:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow. I forgot about Peelpub. Man, that takes me back. I lived in Montreal for a time, and had an amazing time. If that city had anything resembling an economy, I'd settle there.

I had a very bad sunburn when I picked the name.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let me make a point about alternative currency and the problem. Remember Canadian Tire money? I recall back in 1991, during the 1991 recession, a lot of small mom and pops started to accept CT money in lieu of cash. CT money is much like any paper money. It's backed by the belief it can be exchanged for goods and services. Anyway, in smaller towns people had large wads stored up in coffee cans and tool sheds. And coffee shops and book stores need soap and toilet paper, all of which they can buy at CT. So it became fashionable to accept CT money in lieu of cash. However, very few places accepted it at face value. There was a natural discount, like 90 cents on the dollar. You could buy a coffee for 90 real cents or pay with $1 in CT money.

Why the natural discount?

Well, if Zellers has a sale on soap, you can't take advantage of the sale. You might also have to drive farther to spend your CT money. And you certainly can't pay your taxes in it. You don't want to accumulate too much.

To wit, an alternative currency, it seems to me, will suffer such a reduction in value until it is universal like "real money". I might accept Liberty Dollars or Mescal Hours or whatever but I might do so by not accepting it at the alleged face value but at a lower value simply because of the pain in the ass factor.
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agentX



Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many good ideas, and some not-so-good ideas.

I wonder what would constitute "wasteful spending" and what doesn't in his view.

More importantly, how will reducing corporate taxes and regulations keep corporations from committing fraud and crimes that got the US into this mess in the first place?

His plan is a little too short on the details and yet it reveals more about his delusions than he intended. I knew he was a racist but I didn't know he was a corporate kiss-ass as well.
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mithridates



Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

agentX wrote:
Many good ideas, and some not-so-good ideas.

I wonder what would constitute "wasteful spending" and what doesn't in his view.


Here's an example of what he considers to be wasteful spending:

http://pressmediawire.com/article.cfm?articleID=4944
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mithridates wrote:
agentX wrote:
Many good ideas, and some not-so-good ideas.

I wonder what would constitute "wasteful spending" and what doesn't in his view.


Here's an example of what he considers to be wasteful spending:

http://pressmediawire.com/article.cfm?articleID=4944


If he was a true libertarian he would view any government spending beyond courts, police, and military to be wasteful spending.

I remember the reform party that ran on a big platform of anti waste and when Preston became leader of the opposition rather quickly moved into Stornoway, to much criticism.
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This quote basically summarizes my objection to the way the Fed is behaving post-Volcker.


�The Fed�s attitude is that they are here to clean up after bubbles burst, not prevent them from happening in the first place. This is a dangerous and irresponsible and reckless way to run the world�s largest economy.�

- Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, January 2008
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peel still curious about three things regarding private currencies.

1) (as pointed out above) How do you get around that not everyone is not going to accept a private currency like the Liberty Dollar? Since that means loss of opportunity (say having to drive further to a store that accepts Liberty Dollars and doesn't have the thing you want on sale), it will mean people will be hesitant to take it at face value. So "hey you can covert your $10 bills into $9 Liberty Dollars!" How do you even sell that?

2) You're not going to be able to buy $10 alternative currency for $10. The Liberty Dollar, I believe, charges $7 over the prince of silver. Someone needs to make money in a private currency and they're going to charge you for it.

3) Exchange rates. When you want to switch between currencies there's going to be a fee. Why should we sap the economy of potentially billions of dollars on simply money changing fees?
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igotthisguitar



Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Major disparity in news coverage.

Big media is completely shutting him out.

Online polls meanwhile are showing him at the top.

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/01/21/aol-straw-poll-jan-21-28/?ncid=NWS00010000000001
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mindmetoo wrote:
Peel still curious about three things regarding private currencies.

1) (as pointed out above) How do you get around that not everyone is not going to accept a private currency like the Liberty Dollar? Since that means loss of opportunity (say having to drive further to a store that accepts Liberty Dollars and doesn't have the thing you want on sale), it will mean people will be hesitant to take it at face value. So "hey you can covert your $10 bills into $9 Liberty Dollars!" How do you even sell that?

2) You're not going to be able to buy $10 alternative currency for $10. The Liberty Dollar, I believe, charges $7 over the prince of silver. Someone needs to make money in a private currency and they're going to charge you for it.

3) Exchange rates. When you want to switch between currencies there's going to be a fee. Why should we sap the economy of potentially billions of dollars on simply money changing fees?


1) I would imagine going to Zellers and seeing a price for a good quoted in 3-4 currencies and being able to use those currencies at the till. Just like being able to use Visa, Mastercard etc. As we like to say, the market would sort out the details.

Some of the currencies will simply be a store of value and not a means of exchange and some will be both. I doubt that they would be able to achieve domination in the way that "official" notes do, but that isn't the goal. The goal is competition in inflation rates and the like.

2) It is true. And a nickel is not worth 5cent of metal. I already have to pay transaction costs and storage costs with gold and I do not doubt that other costs would exist as well. The question is if those costs outweigh the loss in value from the other currencies. Right now, if you are holding gold, you are doing much better than those holding $, (unless the amount held is very slight) regardless of the transaction/storage costs.

3) There will likely be a small fee, yes. Or, you could choose to be paid in one of the other currencies. The transaction costs would be lower than the rate of inflation or nobody would use them unless they estimated inflation to be looming (as I am).

The reason that some economists and arm-chair economists think this is a good idea is not because it would be a perfect system, but because right now there is no meaningful check on the power of the central banks. Like I said above, I do not want Wal-Mart to have a monopoly on milk (and thereby be able to unilaterally set the prices) and I do not want one firm to have a monopoly on means of exchange and stores of value.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mithridates wrote:
agentX wrote:
Many good ideas, and some not-so-good ideas.

I wonder what would constitute "wasteful spending" and what doesn't in his view.


Here's an example of what he considers to be wasteful spending:

http://pressmediawire.com/article.cfm?articleID=4944


What RP, nor the media, tells you in this article is that Congress isn't simply voting on giving themselves raises, they are voting for giving raises for everyone who has a civilian gov't rank.
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Ron Paul going to run for President as an independent in the GE? If not, will the rampant posting and discussion of his ideas decrease?
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