Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Yu_Bum_suk]

I think any likely scenarios will be very different from what we might initially expect. If I were KJI and had to do 'something' to shake things up / rally support / make one last-ditch effort to stay in power, I'd try to nuke a US base in Japan. The Yanks would want blood; the Japs would want blood; and many South Koreans under 50 would think it was great revenge. Really, what would / could the US and Japan do in such a situation?

[T-J]

[Demonicat]

trooper? I'm running the hell away. The ports and seoul area will just be a massacre. I was in Cote d'ivore during their shit, and the panic was more dangerous than the fighting. Besides, they won't nuke seoul, its a little close to pyongyang doncha think?

[MrRogers]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/world/asia/28korea.html?hp

[Xuanzang]

[MrRogers]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/03/29/world/AP-AS-NKorea-Missile.html

March 29, 2009

NKorea Launch Threatens to Undo Disarmament Talks
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 2:02 p.m. ET

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea's plans to launch a rocket as early as this week in defiance of warnings threatens to undo years of fitful negotiations toward dismantling the regime's nuclear program.

The U.S., South Korea and Japan have told the North that any rocket launch -- whether it's a satellite or a long-range missile -- would violate a 2006 U.N. Security Council Resolution prohibiting Pyongyang from any ballistic activity, and could draw sanctions.

North Korea said sanctions would violate the spirit of disarmament agreements, and said it would treat the pacts as null and void if punished for exercising its sovereign right to send a satellite into space.

''Even a single word critical of the launch'' from the Security Council will be regarded as a ''blatant hostile act,'' a spokesman with North Korea's foreign ministry said Thursday, according the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency. ''All the processes for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which have been pushed forward so far, will be brought back to what used to be before their start and necessary strong measures will be taken.''
That would be a sharp reversal from June 2008 when the North made a promising move toward disarmament, dramatically blowing up a cooling reactor at its main Yongbyon nuclear complex.

But the regime routinely backtracks on agreements, refuses to abide by international rules and wields its nuclear program like a weapon when it needs to win concessions from Washington or Seoul, analysts say.

''History has shown them that the more provocative they are, the more attention they get. The more attention they get, the more they're offered,'' Peter M. Beck, a Korean affairs expert who teaches at American University in Washington and Yonsei University in Seoul, said Sunday.

Despite years of negotiations and impoverished North Korea's growing need for outside help, it's clear the talks have done little to curb the regime's drive to build -- and sell -- its atomic arsenal, experts say.

''If this is Kim Jong Il's welcoming present to a new president, launching a missile like this and threatening to have a nuclear test, I think it says a lot about the imperviousness of this regime in North Korea to any kind of diplomatic overtures,'' Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in an interview broadcast on ''Fox News Sunday.''

North Korea, a notoriously secretive country, has been challenging the international community with its atomic ambitions since 1993, when the regime briefly quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty amid suspicions it was secretly developing atomic weapons.

In 1994, North Korea and the U.S. worked out an agreement that promised Pyongyang oil and two light water nuclear reactors if the country would give up its nuclear ambitions. The power-generating reactors cannot be easily used to make bombs.

Four years later, North Korea fired a multistage Taepodong-1 missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. The North pledged in 1999 to freeze long-range missile tests, but later threatened to restart its nuclear program and resume testing missiles amid delays in construction of the reactors.

In 2002, Pyongyang admitted to a secret nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1994 agreement, prompting the U.S., Japan and South Korea to halt oil supplies promised as part of the pact. The North withdrew again from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, and announced it had reactivated its nuclear power facilities.

That August, six nations -- the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. -- began negotiations on disarmament now known as the ''six-party talks,'' eventually resulting in a landmark accord on Sept. 19, 2005. The agreement called for North Korea to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for economic aid, diplomatic recognition and a security guarantee from Washington.

As the talks continued in fits and starts, the North in 2006 carried out a surprise 5 a.m. test-fire of six missiles, including its Taepodong-2 long-range missile, which U.S. and South Korean officials believe has the potential to strike Alaska.

The rocket fizzled just 42 seconds after takeoff but the launch, denounced as ''provocative'' by Washington, angered even North Korea's longtime ally and main donor, China, which agreed to a U.S.-sponsored U.N. Resolution 1695 condemning the move.

Later that year, an underground nuclear test prompted U.N. Resolution 1718, which bans the North from any ballistic activity. The U.S., South Korea and Japan say that sending satellites into space since the technology for launching a satellite and a missile are virtually the same.

By February, Pyongyang agreed to concrete steps toward disarmament: disabling its main nuclear facilities in exchange for the equivalent of 1 million tons of energy aid and other concessions. Disablement began that November.

But the North halted the process in 2008 amid a dispute with Washington over how to verify its 18,000-page account of past atomic activities. The last round of talks -- in December 2008, weeks before President Barack Obama moved into the White House -- made little apparent progress.

Analysts speculated that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was holding out for talks with Obama. But in forming its North Korea policy, the fledgling Obama administration has made it clear it will work through the six-party process.

The rocket launch scheduled for April 4-8, at a time when Pyongyang has custody of two American reporters detained March 17 at North Korea's border with China, could provide the opening North Korea needs to force direct talks with Washington, analysts said.

''The timing couldn't be better for North Korea. It strengthens the North's bargaining position with the U.S. in dealing with the nuclear issue. They can try to link these two issues in some way,'' said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group.

Bringing everyone, including North Korea, back to the talks will be ''rough going,'' said Paik Hak-soon, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think tank.

But South Korea's envoy expressed confidence the talks would be back on track soon. ''I am looking forward to seeing the talks resume after certain amount of time, and I am not deeply worried or concerned about resumption of the talks,'' Wi Sung-lac said last week.

Ultimately, the talks may never achieve their aim, Beck said.

''It may very well be that in the end, the North will try to play it both ways: continue to negotiate for goodies while never giving up its nuclear trump card,'' he said in his House testimony. ''After all, that is essentially what it has done for the past 16 years.''

------

Associated Press writers Hyung-jin Kim and Kwang-tae Kim contributed to this report.


and this:

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/03/29/world/international-uk-korea-north-missile-usa.html

U.S. Says Has No Plans to Down North Korean Missile

[Spartacus]

Is N.K. pretty badass considering how small and shitty their country actually is? Yes. Do I live in Seoul, and do I believe they have a lot of artillery on the border pointed at me and capable of reaching me? Yes. Will I leave if they attack? Shit, I don't know and I don't think I will know until that actually happens.

Here's the thing that gives me comfort about a war situation: no matter how tough N.K.'s military might actually be, they're not the USA. They're not Japan. Hell, S.K. has one of the world's largest militaries as well. America and Japan are countries that know how to fight wars. Yeah, the USA is having trouble in the Middle East, but N.K. won't fight us like that. They'll fight us the way we'll fight them: wearing uniforms and acting like an army. That's the situation they've built for. They'll lose that war. I don't think we have to worry about China either. N.K. has messed that relationship up. Does China still want to see a divided Korea? Yes, but badly enough to openly support a crazy dictator? No. They're getting a taste of the good life over there and they're becoming more and more a part of the global community.

Conclusion: Can N.K. do some damage? Yes. Will they quickly be stomped in the face if they do? Yes.

[Nierlisse]

At least if I get trapped in my apartment for a few days, I won't go hungry. I have 2 cats.

[SOOHWA101]

I am amazed at how everyone views this from inside a conventional military-attack-strategy box. If N.Korea does in fact start things off, it will be too late if you are already here on the peninsula. Their bombs will be the least of your worries.

The US did a war-game scenario a number of years back named "Global 95," at least I think I got the number correct. Immediately following the outcome, they classified it. Evidentley, the Norks would inflict an enormous amount of damage. Since that time, the whistle blowers have come out and told all. Basically, they have a "well" developed bio program that is amped and ready for war. They would hit the ports and military bases first off, then this country would gestate into a quarantine 4 apocalypse. It is a documented fact that their resources include weaponized Plague, anthrax, and hemorrhagic fever. Their means of disbursement are rudimentary, but extremely effective. This place would be a wasteland in a matter of weeks.

Thanks to the Clinton admin., any country that uses biological ordinance against US forces is subject to nuclear retaliation. You can then break out your diseased franks and have a bbq.

[MrRogers]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/03/31/news/news-us-korea-north.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print


March 31, 2009

North Korea Missile Consistent With Satellite: U.S.

By REUTERS
Filed at 6:58 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON/SEOUL (Reuters) - A missile North Korea could launch as soon as this weekend appears to have a bulb-shaped tip that gives credence to Pyongyang's claim it plans to put a satellite in space, U.S. defense officials said on Tuesday.

Washington and others have voiced concern the launch will be a test of a long-range missile that could carry a warhead as far as U.S. territory. Pyongyang's plans have alarmed the region and intensified pressure on the North not to launch its Taepodong-2. A Taepodong-2 test in 2006 failed.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the launch, which North Korea says will occur between April 4 and 8, would deal a blow to six-party talks to end Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.

Further stoking tensions, North Korea said on Tuesday it would put on trial two U.S. journalists arrested this month on its border with China.

The reclusive state accused the two female reporters, Laura Ling and Euna Lee from the U.S.-based media outlet Current TV, of unspecified "hostile acts."

"The illegal entry of U.S. reporters into the DPRK (North Korea) and their suspected hostile acts have been confirmed by evidence and their statements, according to the results of intermediary investigation conducted by a competent organ of the DPRK," North Korea's KCNA news agency said.

U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a commercial satellite image of the Musudan-ri missile test site showed a Taepodong-2 missile with a bulb-shaped payload cover, consistent with a satellite payload, rather than a warhead.

The image was posted on Sunday on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security, or ISIS, a Washington-based group devoted to informing the public on security issues including nuclear weapons.

The bulb shape is similar to the nose cone standard for military and commercial satellite launches, concluded officials, including analysts at the U.S. Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center in Dayton, Ohio.

"They probably are launching a satellite. But the issue is that the steps they're going through to do that run parallel to them being able to have other capabilities," senior ISIS analyst Paul Brannan said.

U.S. DEPLOYMENT

One Seoul-based analyst said intelligence reports indicated North Korea appeared to have built nuclear warheads for its mid-range Rodong missiles, which can reach Japan.

"I have some intelligence assessments that indicate they have assembled nuclear warheads for Rodong missiles," said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the nongovernmental International Crisis Group. "No one can know this with 100 percent accuracy."

A U.S. official who spoke on condition he not be identified cast doubt on the report, saying, "I know of zero evidence to support that contention."

Many proliferation experts believe the North, whose only nuclear test in 2006 was seen as a partial success, does not have the technology to miniaturize a nuclear device for a warhead. It might be able to place a biological or a dirty bomb, where radiation is spread through conventional explosives.

North Korea's planned rocket launch is certain to feature on the sidelines of the G20 summit this week in London when U.S. President Barack Obama meets global leaders, including President Hu Jintao of China, the nearest the North has to a major ally.

China has avoided directly criticizing Pyongyang, urging all sides to exercise restraint.

The United States, Japan and South Korea are deploying missile-interceptor ships in the area.

All have said they would shoot down the rocket if it threatened their territory and that the launch would be in violation of U.N. resolutions. Both houses of Japan's parliament passed a resolution urging North Korea not to fire the rocket.

(Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Isabel Reynolds in Tokyo, Jack Kim, Jon Herskovitz and Kim Junghyun in Seoul, Editing by Peter Cooney)

[MrRogers]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/world/asia/03korea.html?ref=asia

N. Korea Is Said to Be Fueling Rocket

April 3, 2009

North Korea Perfects Its Game: Brinkmanship
By CHOE SANG-HUN

SEOUL, South Korea � As North Korea prepares to launch as early as Saturday what it calls a rocket carrying a communications satellite but Washington calls an intercontinental ballistic missile, the world is watching. And watching, for now, seems to be about all it can do.

On Thursday, as CNN reported that North Korea had begun fueling the rocket � a strong indication that the launching would take place as scheduled, between Saturday and Wednesday � President Obama and his South Korean counterpart, Lee Myung-bak, agreed on the need for a �stern, united� international response.

But with two American journalists detained and facing criminal indictment in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, the United States all but ruled out the possibility of shooting down the rocket � an action that, if successful, could provoke the North into quitting already sputtering nuclear disarmament talks and, if not, would embarrass the Pentagon.

Japan sent interceptor missiles to the coast facing the North. But like the United States, it admits that it can intercept only if the rocket fails and tumbles toward its territory.

�We will surely win,� the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, said during his recent birthday party, according to the March 28 edition of Rodong Sinmun, Pyongyang�s main state-run newspaper. Rodong then explained Mr. Kim�s tactic: �If our sworn enemies come at us with a dagger, he brandishes a sword. If they train a rifle at us, he responds with a cannon.�

Among North Korea watchers, Mr. Kim�s tactic is known as �brinkmanship.� It is a term they often use to explain politics behind the North�s rocket launching and its detention and impending indictment of Laura Ling and Euna Lee, both reporters of San Francisco-based Current TV, who were arrested by North Korean soldiers at the border with China on March 17.

The collapse of the Communist bloc in the early 1990s left North Korea with few friends. Since then, North Korea, a dictatorship armed to the teeth but unable to feed its own people without foreign aid, has specialized in provoking the international community for survival.

Whenever it failed to get concessions in negotiations or there were changes of governments abroad, the North raised tensions, wangling an invitation to talks and extracting fresh aid while never giving up its trump card, its nuclear weapons program.

That is what it did when it withdrew from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in 1993 and began stockpiling plutonium; when it held an American for three months for illegally crossing its border from China in 1996; when it tested its first ballistic missile over Japan in 1998; when its warships clashed with the South Korean Navy in 1999 and 2002; and when it tested its first nuclear device in 2006.

These movements forced reluctant governments in Washington and Seoul to the negotiating table for talks that often resulted in more aid to North Korea. In return, North Korea agreed to work toward ending its nuclear program � a promise it quickly stalled or reversed. It had to, experts say, because the nuclear card is its only major bargaining chip.

North Korea was forced to recalibrate its strategy again after Mr. Lee, a conservative, came to power in Seoul a year ago, ending a decade of no-strings-attached largess from the South. Meanwhile, Mr. Obama took office in Washington in January, giving Mr. Kim a reason to grab Washington�s attention anew.

Since last year, the North has called Mr. Lee a �traitor� and his aides �pro-American flunkies� and �malicious confrontational maniacs.� It has cut off dialogue with Seoul and stalled six-nation nuclear disarmament talks. A month ago, it began assembling what Washington believes is its Taepodong-2 missile at a launching pad on its northeast coast.

Then an unexpected bonanza for the Pyongyang government rolled in in the persons of Ms. Ling and Ms. Lee. The regime is now preparing to put them on trial on charges of �hostile acts� against the Communist state, a crime punishable by up to 10 years of hard labor in one of the North�s notorious prison camps.

�The journalists considerably weakened their government�s leverage against the North,� said Kim Tae-woo, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis in Seoul.

All in all, Washington has few good options, experts said.

�North Korea has little to lose in this game,� said Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University in Seoul. �It�s a repeating pattern: Once again, North Korea�s brinkmanship is working.�

Washington says that the launching is a provocative test of a ballistic missile with the potential of carrying a warhead to the western coast of the United States, and that it violates a United Nations resolution that bans the North from all such tests. But an American effort to punish the North at the Security Council will bog down in haggling with China, the closest the North has to an ally, over whether the North is entitled to launch a satellite, analysts said.

Any such move by the United States, North Korea warns, will also compel it to quit six-party talks on ending its nuclear weapons program � Washington�s top goal in dealing with North Korea.

South Korea, too, has few ways to pressure the North, except perhaps reducing the $1.8 billion worth of annual trade, the second largest volume of trade the isolated country has after China. But the South is perpetually divided between those who want to discipline the North and those who fear such a tactic would only worsen its isolation and add to the deprivation of their relatives still living there.

Tokyo has made the fate of a dozen Japanese kidnapped by North Korea an overriding priority in dealing with the North. Although popular, that policy has seriously curtailed Tokyo�s flexibility to engage the North in the nuclear and missile disputes.

Mr. Kim is said to have suffered a stroke last August. By confronting the United States and Japan, he wants to enhance his credentials as a military leader as he seeks to get himself re-elected by his rubber-stamp Parliament, which convenes next Thursday, analysts said.

The two American journalists provide North Korea with convenient leverage to attract a high-level envoy from Washington after the rocket launching. But for now, the North will focus on the successful launching, which will give the necessary lift to Mr. Kim�s domestic reputation.

�If the launch does take place, the best outcome for the international community is simply for it to fail,� said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy group.

[OnTheOtherSide]

This whole routine of North Korea being a rogue nation, making threats, getting aide, and having it all start over again is not going to last forever.

I think that this might be when we see North Korea get bent over and screwed, Iraq style. It's gotta happen someday.

I recently read an article in a foreign affairs magazine. The writer made a very, very compelling case about how it would be in a lot of countries best interests to invade NK and occupy it.

The reasons included the fact that the US will longer be able to keep the same number of troops there. NK is destabilizing the region and presents a nuclear threat. They have resources and land to plunder. And the entire international community would back it up if the decision was made to move on them.

I would tell you to NOT assume that it won't happen. I would seriously have an escape plan. These are crazy times, a new war might just pop up.

[OnTheOtherSide]

....

[Eedoryeong]

Well I'm of two minds about what's happened in the past 24 hours.

on the one hand, I'm very disappointed that no attempt was made to shoot down the missile.

on the other hand, if this regime can be brought to an end without dropping bombs on North Korea so much the better. Seems like a pipe dream, though.

So I guess if we just clamped our hands over our ears and stopped listening and just started looking, it would look like things are going to be allowed to get as bad as they need to get. Perhaps it's the way it looks that should be guiding our planning? Seems like a lot of people at least on this thread were hoping that somebody would do something. I guess this is the new diplomacy. I suppose I should be looking for any possibility of any nearby small-town ferries that will go to Jeju.

[MrRogers]

you mean South Korea?

well - I think it is good to trust your instincts - to be awake to what's going on instead of the head in the sand thing

the debris was falling on both the west and east side of Japan
the whole area is very close with regard to the aftermath of something nuclear being dropped

Jeju wouldn't be far enough if it was nuclear - but that is another topic

in today's paper:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/world/asia/07korea.html?_r=1&hp