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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:10 am Post subject: |
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| Considering how close they are to Seoul, how much artillery they have, their special forces (who are actually considered good to decent), and the sheer numbers, They could take Seoul fairly quickly and push down south fairly quickly. |
No they couldn't. While their artillery could certainly hit areas around the DMZ pretty hard, they wouldn't be able to reach past the northern edges of Seoul and many would have difficulty to move in support of advancing forces. Also, the number of passes and roads are all known and would rapidly be mined and the roads and bridges destroyed. North Korea has very limited capability to manage that kind of engineering work. There's only 3 corridors large enough to support an invasion by a substantial number of forces. This isn't some flatland where you can just attack wherever.
Special Forces? Their special forces aren't that special. Slapping a "special forces" label on them doesn't make them special. In reality they are the equivalent of Saddam's Republican Guard or Iran's Quds forces. No slouches, but they aren't the equivalent of 100,000 Navy SEALs.
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| Looking at the U.S. trying to deal with ISIS shows the limitations of air warfare. |
You are confusing guerrillas and large-scale conventional war.
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| I don't think they would attack, but as a function of surprise, tunnels, shelling, overwhelming force and the fact that the distance is so small, the Norks could take Seoul, or at least parts of it, relatively quickly. |
Tunnels? Soldiers don't pop out of them instantly like a swarm of ants. They ahve to march and that marching makes noise and once one comes out, its pretty easy to figure out where the rest of the tunnel is and cave it in. Its good for small-scale infiltration, but you aren't sending a division through.
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| It takes time to mobilize armies and organize a response |
That works both ways genius. The Norks need to mobilize as well. That will take weeks and would be readily noticed. You can't secretly mobilize an army of 1 million men + reserves for total war and do it secretly in the 21st century.
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| but the North's armed forces are well designed for a quick land attack against a target as close as Seoul. |
Well designed...if it were 1970. And their supplies and equipment cannot match that strategy. The North Korean army is well designed at supplying basic jobs for a million able-bodied men, guarding the Chinese border, playing cat and mouse games with the S. Koreans, harvesting rice, fixing roads, and having enough there to make a US-SK invasion too costly. Beyond that we're talking Saddam 1990, almost 25 years later with pretty much the same technology, less maintenance, + crude nukes.
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| According to intelligence estimates, North Korea also has a lot of chemical weapons capability |
Chemical weapons have limited effectiveness. Read about them. And any deployment of chemical weapons would invite massive retaliation by the US, either chemical itself or nuclear weapons. Hitler didn't even use chemical weapons despite the Soviets closing in on his bunker. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Considering how close they are to Seoul, how much artillery they have, their special forces (who are actually considered good to decent), and the sheer numbers, They could take Seoul fairly quickly and push down south fairly quickly. |
No they couldn't. While their artillery could certainly hit areas around the DMZ pretty hard, they wouldn't be able to reach past the northern edges of Seoul and many would have difficulty to move in support of advancing forces. Also, the number of passes and roads are all known and would rapidly be mined and the roads and bridges destroyed. North Korea has very limited capability to manage that kind of engineering work. There's only 3 corridors large enough to support an invasion by a substantial number of forces. This isn't some flatland where you can just attack wherever.
Special Forces? Their special forces aren't that special. Slapping a "special forces" label on them doesn't make them special. In reality they are the equivalent of Saddam's Republican Guard or Iran's Quds forces. No slouches, but they aren't the equivalent of 100,000 Navy SEALs. |
I will take back some of what I said, I still think they could take Seoul fairly quickly, not sure how much further south they would get. The DPRK has missiles that can hit all of ROK and hit Japan, so I'm not sure why you think they couldn't hit Seoul. They have 100,000 special forces, and if they are the same as the Republican Guard that is saying something, considering how effective the Republican guard has been, is, during the post conflict in Iraq/taking part in ISIS. Look, the ROK army is good, but it is largely made up of conscripts- so their military effectiveness is unknown, but in a quick surprise attack, knowing the numbers that both sides have, and knowing that the ROK has their military more spread out, I would give the DPRK the initial advantage.
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Looking at the U.S. trying to deal with ISIS shows the limitations of air warfare. |
You are confusing guerrillas and large-scale conventional war. |
ISIS has been using conventional tactics, and is now adapting to U.S. airstrikes.
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| I don't think they would attack, but as a function of surprise, tunnels, shelling, overwhelming force and the fact that the distance is so small, the Norks could take Seoul, or at least parts of it, relatively quickly. |
Tunnels? Soldiers don't pop out of them instantly like a swarm of ants. They ahve to march and that marching makes noise and once one comes out, its pretty easy to figure out where the rest of the tunnel is and cave it in. Its good for small-scale infiltration, but you aren't sending a division through. |
Tunnels was one of the things I mentioned, and probably the most minor one.
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| It takes time to mobilize armies and organize a response |
That works both ways genius. The Norks need to mobilize as well. That will take weeks and would be readily noticed. You can't secretly mobilize an army of 1 million men + reserves for total war and do it secretly in the 21st century. |
Most of the NORK army is already forward deployed near the DMZ.
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| but the North's armed forces are well designed for a quick land attack against a target as close as Seoul. |
Well designed...if it were 1970. And their supplies and equipment cannot match that strategy. The North Korean army is well designed at supplying basic jobs for a million able-bodied men, guarding the Chinese border, playing cat and mouse games with the S. Koreans, harvesting rice, fixing roads, and having enough there to make a US-SK invasion too costly. Beyond that we're talking Saddam 1990, almost 25 years later with pretty much the same technology, less maintenance, + crude nukes. |
The ROK is not the U.S., and the U.S. would take time to respond in full force. Saddam in 1990 was pretty powerful, just not compared to the U.S., and the ROK's army is probably better. Their arms are really not as bad as people think, not great, but it is no coincidence that lots of countries buy weapons from the DPRK.
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| According to intelligence estimates, North Korea also has a lot of chemical weapons capability |
Chemical weapons have limited effectiveness. Read about them. And any deployment of chemical weapons would invite massive retaliation by the US, either chemical itself or nuclear weapons. Hitler didn't even use chemical weapons despite the Soviets closing in on his bunker. |
I didn't write the above quote, and agree with SR, although I wouldn't write off the DPRK using them. The DPRK strategy, at least according to knowledgeable sources a few years ago, is to push fast into Seoul and then sue for peace on favorable terms, but again I think them actually doing this is very unlikely because it would probably be regime suicide. [/b] |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| The DPRK has missiles that can hit all of ROK and hit Japan, so I'm not sure why you think they couldn't hit Seoul. |
Those ballistic missiles are based off of Scuds and have limited effectiveness. They would be vulnerable to interceptors. Of the vaunted 30,000 artillery pieces, only a small fraction can hit Seoul. And they'd have a 25% dud rate! I've cited this information and pointed to a study before on other threads. Here is a brief run-down.
http://asw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=11355
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| They have 100,000 special forces, and if they are the same as the Republican Guard that is saying something, considering how effective the Republican guard has been, is, during the post conflict in Iraq/taking part in ISIS. |
Again, calling them special, doesn't make them special.
The Republican guard was mauled during Gulf War 1. AN INSURGENCY AND FULL-SCALE CONVENTIONAL INVASION ARE NOT THE SAME THING. Stop trying to equate them. That's like saying baseball is the same as cricket because both have a ball thrown at a batsman.
| Quote: |
| Look, the ROK army is good, but it is largely made up of conscripts- so their military effectiveness is unknown |
So is North Korea's.
| Quote: |
| but in a quick surprise attack, knowing the numbers that both sides have, and knowing that the ROK has their military more spread out |
The North two will be both spread out and forced to concentrate- units at the Chinese border to prevent refugees and to delay Chinese forces if they decide to invade and replace the regime, units to deal with internal uprising or some general declaring himself a warlord. Units to guard against any amphibious invasion. Units in reserve. Then to invade they must proceed down one of three corridors. They won't be able to spread out. They'll be forced through narrow corridors and the S. Korean defenders will be able to concentrate. That's why the DMZ was drawn up the way it was.
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| ISIS has been using conventional tactics, and is now adapting to U.S. airstrikes. |
NO IT HASN'T. 2,000 men and a bunch of technicals is not the same thing as a full scale conventional invasion. Stop saying that. That's like saying a 9mm handgun is the same as a 16" cannon on a battleship.
And by the way, while air power is not decisive, we saw how well the vaunted Republican Guard, now ISIS, did after a month of coalition airstrikes and every tank between Basra and Baghdad getting lit up by an A-10.
| Quote: |
| Most of the NORK army is already forward deployed near the DMZ. |
A lot of the Nork army is deployed for the harvests. Or fixing roads. Or trying to get jeeps and tanks to run. Or stopping DVD pirates at the Chinese border. They may be based along the DMZ, that doesn't mean they are there at the ready.
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| The ROK is not the U.S., and the U.S. would take time to respond in full force |
The U.S. would have time because the North cannot simply turn a key and start racing for Seoul. This isn't the movies. You need to mobilize and call up your reserves and organize your units. That takes time. Like a month. The U.S. would easily know. And between Guam and Japan, reinforcements are not THAT far away, at least where air power is concerned.
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| but it is no coincidence that lots of countries buy weapons from the DPRK |
Wrong, wrong, wrong. North Korea does $100 million in arms sales a year. Sounds impressive. Until you realize that that is the unit cost for a single F-35. South Korea, by the way, does 3.4 billion in arms sales. This is the danger of "CNN expertise". You need to be able to look at the story and the numbers and understand what they truly mean. Average Joe hears $100 million and thinks they are an arms powerhouse, but anyone in the know hears that number and snorts.
Far from adding to their reputation, your "arms exporter" line further confirms the worst about their military.
| Quote: |
| The DPRK strategy, at least according to knowledgeable sources a few years ago, is to push fast into Seoul and then sue for peace on favorable terms, but again I think them actually doing this is very unlikely because it would probably be regime suicide |
Not to mention the fact that they lack the capability, logistics, and materiel to actually do it without S. Korea lying down and waving the white flag and the U.S. to be sleeping. |
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guavashake
Joined: 09 Nov 2013
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
| The DPRK has missiles that can hit all of ROK and hit Japan, so I'm not sure why you think they couldn't hit Seoul. |
Those ballistic missiles are based off of Scuds and have limited effectiveness. They would be vulnerable to interceptors. Of the vaunted 30,000 artillery pieces, only a small fraction can hit Seoul. And they'd have a 25% dud rate! I've cited this information and pointed to a study before on other threads. Here is a brief run-down.
http://asw.newpacificinstitute.org/?p=11355
| Quote: |
| They have 100,000 special forces, and if they are the same as the Republican Guard that is saying something, considering how effective the Republican guard has been, is, during the post conflict in Iraq/taking part in ISIS. |
Again, calling them special, doesn't make them special.
The Republican guard was mauled during Gulf War 1. AN INSURGENCY AND FULL-SCALE CONVENTIONAL INVASION ARE NOT THE SAME THING. Stop trying to equate them. That's like saying baseball is the same as cricket because both have a ball thrown at a batsman.
| Quote: |
| Look, the ROK army is good, but it is largely made up of conscripts- so their military effectiveness is unknown |
So is North Korea's.
| Quote: |
| but in a quick surprise attack, knowing the numbers that both sides have, and knowing that the ROK has their military more spread out |
The North two will be both spread out and forced to concentrate- units at the Chinese border to prevent refugees and to delay Chinese forces if they decide to invade and replace the regime, units to deal with internal uprising or some general declaring himself a warlord. Units to guard against any amphibious invasion. Units in reserve. Then to invade they must proceed down one of three corridors. They won't be able to spread out. They'll be forced through narrow corridors and the S. Korean defenders will be able to concentrate. That's why the DMZ was drawn up the way it was.
| Quote: |
| ISIS has been using conventional tactics, and is now adapting to U.S. airstrikes. |
NO IT HASN'T. 2,000 men and a bunch of technicals is not the same thing as a full scale conventional invasion. Stop saying that. That's like saying a 9mm handgun is the same as a 16" cannon on a battleship.
And by the way, while air power is not decisive, we saw how well the vaunted Republican Guard, now ISIS, did after a month of coalition airstrikes and every tank between Basra and Baghdad getting lit up by an A-10.
| Quote: |
| Most of the NORK army is already forward deployed near the DMZ. |
A lot of the Nork army is deployed for the harvests. Or fixing roads. Or trying to get jeeps and tanks to run. Or stopping DVD pirates at the Chinese border. They may be based along the DMZ, that doesn't mean they are there at the ready.
| Quote: |
| The ROK is not the U.S., and the U.S. would take time to respond in full force |
The U.S. would have time because the North cannot simply turn a key and start racing for Seoul. This isn't the movies. You need to mobilize and call up your reserves and organize your units. That takes time. Like a month. The U.S. would easily know. And between Guam and Japan, reinforcements are not THAT far away, at least where air power is concerned.
| Quote: |
| but it is no coincidence that lots of countries buy weapons from the DPRK |
Wrong, wrong, wrong. North Korea does $100 million in arms sales a year. Sounds impressive. Until you realize that that is the unit cost for a single F-35. South Korea, by the way, does 3.4 billion in arms sales. This is the danger of "CNN expertise". You need to be able to look at the story and the numbers and understand what they truly mean. Average Joe hears $100 million and thinks they are an arms powerhouse, but anyone in the know hears that number and snorts.
Far from adding to their reputation, your "arms exporter" line further confirms the worst about their military.
| Quote: |
| The DPRK strategy, at least according to knowledgeable sources a few years ago, is to push fast into Seoul and then sue for peace on favorable terms, but again I think them actually doing this is very unlikely because it would probably be regime suicide |
Not to mention the fact that they lack the capability, logistics, and materiel to actually do it without S. Korea lying down and waving the white flag and the U.S. to be sleeping. |
May be wrong about any or all other points...
North Korea Arms Trade
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqoIAn3ecoic
Only a “very small percentage” of North Korea’s illegal arms trade has been reported or discovered, the report said. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| It probably would be better for little Kim Jr. to start negotiations for amnesty for him, and his buddies, and nice little pensions. And get some top-notch medical care for his health issues. Otherwise, he might end up stringed up on some Pyongyang light-pole within 10 years. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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