Korean Job Discussion Forums

[EFLtrainer]

[Gopher]

I guess I can give you two the benefit of the doubt and clarify. Perhaps I failed to specify that this thread was meant to track the upcoming midterm elections, beginning with (reliable) national polling data in the weeks leading up to it. I foolishly imagined that the title I selected covered such issues.

So, without further ado, here is your clarification:

[ontheway]

The analytical items above do not constitute "predictions". Nor was I complaining, only observing. To say that so and so has an edge or seems to be leading or whatever does not constitute a prediction of an outcome. On the contrary, you could say that "so and so seems to be leading but I think that such and such will win in the end" is a prediction.

Of course, news writers and talking heads do not want to make actual predictions as being wrong will tend to erode their image and credibility. So they make general comments which cannot be disputed no matter what the outcome.

Finally, usually people observing elections have their own feeling about what the outcome of the election will be. Some people enjoy giving their own actual predictions, they even enjoy wagering on such predictions. It can be done on various games of chance, athletic and sporting events, games, and even elections. Usually you need some actual numerical values to be placed as to a prediction of the outcome. Only Mithridates' chart on the first page gives some numerical values, but this is intended to be analysis and to show trends and tendencies. Analysts do not want to be wrong so they don't make predictions.

So, does anyone else have any actual numerical predictions of their own of what the outcome of the elections will be next Tuesday? How many seats will change hands and which party will have control of each house of Congress?

[spliff]

[EFLtrainer]

Nevermind. Not worth it.

[EFLtrainer]

Overall current status

Judging by this data, and with the House a virtual lock (pseudo-prediction, but more just observation of widespread reporting and anlysis/predictions), the places to watch most closely are the close Senate races. Having already lost the House, the GOP should focus their efforts on the Senate to avoid total loss of control. Missouri, Virginia and Montana, with Ohio, Maryland and N.J. tossed in, seem to be the key points in this election at this point.

Tennessee and Arizona worth slight attention, suppose.

[EFLtrainer]

He's well ahead, but I suppose this might turn off enough women voters to tighten the race..

[EFLtrainer]

[Ya-ta Boy]

CNN's live coverage of election returns will begin at 9PM Wednesday (local time here in Korea).

I'm not going to make a specific prediction--don't want to jinx the outcome. I'm just an English teacher here in Korea. I'm interested in the overall outcome. (My congressional district is a safe Republican district )

This is late Sunday morning. It's unlikely there will be any more scandals or international incidents that will have an impact on the election. Now it's up to things like voter complacency: My party is going to win/lose no matter what I do, so I don't need to vote...I'm too busy getting the kids off to school before I go to work so I can't vote early and I'm too tired/busy after work...It's raining and cold. I don't want to stand in a long line just to vote...; effectiveness of grass-roots organizations at the precinct level; level of election fraud; level of voter passion...etc.

So I won't make a prediction, but I will say: Here's hoping the Republican Party crashes and burns on Tuesday.


EDIT/DISCLAIMER/WARNING

Not all of us are fully conversant with GMT and CNN program time listings and all the rest of that kind of thing. You might want to check out the time for yourself. (Milwaukiedave says it is AM, not PM. He may be right. There's a good chance of it.

[EFLtrainer]

And that the Democrats/Independents/others have the fortitude to apply the law to these usurpers. And, more importantly, that the people don't allow them to become complacent and start a bunch of, "Let bygones be bygones" crap. Heads need to roll. Investigations made. Voting processes secured. Truth told.

It's up to us to apply that pressure and hold ALL members of government accountable. But, we must first hold ourselves accountable and demand change.

[EFLtrainer]

[EFLtrainer]

Some nice stats here:

Coldheartedtruth's Predictions

Senate:

R 50
D 48
I 2

House:

R 214
D 221
I 0


Washington Times multi-page article:

Democrats, on the Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses

[igotthisguitar]

Why Do So Few People Vote In The U.S.?
By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press Writer
Sun Nov 5, 12:31 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Government of the people, by the people, will be missing a lot of people Election Day.

It's a persistent riddle in a country that thinks of itself as the beacon of democracy.

Why do so few "share the light"?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061105/ap_on_el_ge/voting_in_america ... etc ...

[Ya-ta Boy]

Larry King is about as worthless a use of the public airwaves as any program going, but he occasionally does book a guest worth listening to. Even stopped clocks...

Anyway, tonight he had David Gergen, who is always worth listening to and James Carville, who is a hoot when he isn't enlightening, among some others.

At the end, Carville (Clinton's strategist in '92) made a fascinating comment that deserved much more time. He said the Republicans are in danger of becoming a regional party. I can't quote him word for word, but the gist was that if the Dems take the northern Senate/House races that are toss-ups at this point, then it would indicate the GOP has lost its attraction outside its core base.

He wasn't saying it would happen, just that that is one possibility. It made me smile.

[Milwaukiedave]