|
Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Will anthropogenic global warming be revealed as a political sham? |
| Yes, in the next 6 months |
|
32% |
[ 11 ] |
| Yes, in the next 12 months |
|
11% |
[ 4 ] |
| Yes, in the next 24 months |
|
8% |
[ 3 ] |
| Yes, but long after we're all dead and buried. |
|
5% |
[ 2 ] |
| No |
|
41% |
[ 14 ] |
|
| Total Votes : 34 |
|
| Author |
Message |
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| Koveras wrote: |
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| Koveras wrote: |
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| Koveras wrote: |
| , from 0.028 to 0.038 % of the atmosphere. Do you really think this spells doom? |
No...it just spells climate change. |
I agree. But is it catastrophic? Keep in mind that this is the popular view of things, that the earth is heading for catastrophe. It's the view spread by contextless statements like 'CO2 has increased by 35%'. |
The last time the concentration of C02 in the atmosphere was this high was during the mid-Miocene. Twenty million years ago. And the concentration has risen 35% in a little over a hundred years. |
I understand what you're doing: you think that I'll be scared by your big numbers and time scales and your obscure geological references. |
I use big numbers and obscure geological references because I have a degree in Geomorphology and worked for Environment Canada for 15 years.
| Quote: |
| Where in what you said did you give any reason for me to believe that the earth is about to warm at a catastrophic rate? |
The Earth is warming at a catastrophic rate on a geologic timescale. In little over 100 years, the structure of the atmosphere has been reworked so that it is identical to the mid-Miocene atmosphere of Earth in terms of C02 levels. And the atmosphere of the Miocene got that way over millions of years remained at that level of 0.035 percent C02 for subsequent millions of years; we've changed the atmosphere to the Miocene equivalent in a fraction of the time. Such a change is catastrophic to ecosystems, and inevitably will be catastrophic to the human populations that depend on them. |
Non sequitur. The affect CO2 has on climate temperature is negligible, and in recent times CO2 levels have been shown to actually follow changes in temperature. Overall there is no causal affect though - the earth has experienced an ice age with 12X greater CO2 levels than what we have now.
Last edited by visitorq on Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
| It takes more than C02 to make a plant grow. Plants don't live alone, they live in ecological communities that are closely interconnected. Adding C02 to a terrarium might make one plant grow a little bigger...but the problem is plants are also critically dependent on temperature and moisture levels. If you take a cactus out of the desert and plant it in a rainforest, it doesn't grow like crazy. It expands, swells with water, bursts, and dies. It is unable, as a single individual, to adapt to what to it is a catastrophic change in its environment. Ecosystems are the same way. They need time - thousands, if not millions of years - to adapt successfully to changing conditions. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
| It takes more than C02 to make a plant grow. Plants don't live alone, they live in ecological communities that are closely interconnected. Adding C02 to a terrarium might make one plant grow a little bigger...but the problem is plants are also critically dependent on temperature and moisture levels. If you take a cactus out of the desert and plant it in a rainforest, it doesn't grow like crazy. It expands, swells with water, bursts, and dies. It is unable, as a single individual, to adapt to what to it is a catastrophic change in its environment. Ecosystems are the same way. They need time - thousands, if not millions of years - to adapt successfully to changing conditions. |
Mass extinction events have occurred many times, and always naturally. But that is not to say we are on the verge of one now. Even if we are, it does not follow that humans caused it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Manner of Speaking

Joined: 09 Jan 2003
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
Gopher, if someone claims that an airplane didn't really crash into the Pentagon, that it was actually a missile, you would still have to account for the fact that 150 passengers don't exist anymore. Regardless of whatever other evidence or arguments that are made for the supposition. Earth scientists and biologists around the world are observing rapid changes in glacier sizes, arctic marine ice, changes in species populations, migration patterns, etc, and they are continuing to do so. Economists are able to accurately measure the amount of fossil fuels that have been and are being consumed, and earth scientists have and are accurately measuring the percentage change in C02 in the Earth's atmosphere. That extra C02 has to be coming from somewhere. And the only thing that accounts for the volume of extra C02 is fossil fuel emissions.
As one poster earlier put it, the capacity for extra C02 to alter the insulating qualities of atmospheric gases is a given. It can be demonstrated in the laboratory, it's basic physics. In fact, you don't even need to measure atmospheric C02 concentration changes directly, you can forecast them accurately by simply accounting for total annual and accumulated fossil fuel consumption. Adding C02 to the atmosphere, warms the atmosphere. Warming the atmosphere, changes ecosystems. It doesn't get any simpler than that. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Junior

Joined: 18 Nov 2005 Location: the eye
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
The fact is the scientific consensus on climate change has been reached through the publication of thousands of peer-reviewed papers, field research and the lifetime�s work of some of humanity�s best minds. It�s obvious these emails didn�t even go through a spell-check let alone the rigorous peer-review process. Contrary to what the skeptics claim, the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, NASA and the world�s leading atmospheric scientists are not the agents of a clandestine global movement against the truth.
�Redefine the peer-reviewed literature!� . Nobody actually gets to do that, and both papers discussed in that comment � McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003) were both cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. As an aside, neither has stood the test of time.
�Declines� in the MXD record. This decline was hidden written up in Nature in 1998 where the authors suggested not using the post 1960 data. Their actual programs (in IDL script), unsurprisingly warn against using post 1960 data. Added: Note that the �hide the decline� comment was made in 1999 � 10 years ago, and has no connection whatsoever to more recent instrumental records.
http://www.realclimate.org/ |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Fox

Joined: 04 Mar 2009
|
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 5:12 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Junior wrote: |
The fact is the scientific consensus on climate change has been reached through the publication of thousands of peer-reviewed papers, field research and the lifetime�s work of some of humanity�s best minds. It�s obvious these emails didn�t even go through a spell-check let alone the rigorous peer-review process. Contrary to what the skeptics claim, the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, NASA and the world�s leading atmospheric scientists are not the agents of a clandestine global movement against the truth.
�Redefine the peer-reviewed literature!� . Nobody actually gets to do that, and both papers discussed in that comment � McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003) were both cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. As an aside, neither has stood the test of time.
�Declines� in the MXD record. This decline was hidden written up in Nature in 1998 where the authors suggested not using the post 1960 data. Their actual programs (in IDL script), unsurprisingly warn against using post 1960 data. Added: Note that the �hide the decline� comment was made in 1999 � 10 years ago, and has no connection whatsoever to more recent instrumental records.
http://www.realclimate.org/ |
None of this matters to people who decided anthropogenic climate change wasn't happening as soon as they realized it might require governmental regulation to stop it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|