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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: |
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| Count me in as one both opposed to the War in Iraq and a supporter of Georgia in this conflict. Russia's constant interference is bad news. I hope Azerbaijan and Armenia are taking a real close look at this because they could potentially have the same thing happen there. Azerbaijan seems to be taking it easy, growing economically by 30% each year and increasing their military budget all the time. They spend more on their military each year for example ($2 billion) than Armenia's total budget ($1.7 billion in revenues). |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Asking for 'evidence' is a cop out. You don't have any. |
And I am not confidently asserting conclusions based on little more than my impressions of the situation as filtered through my preexisting worldview, either, Ya-ta Boy.
In any case, I accept your admission that you cannot explain what authorizes the "all-about-oil!" trope's application to this instance besides the partially visible, partially known circumstances that we all see on the news. And I also regret that you have reduced the study of history to such a practical/not practical choice. But whatever. How do you feel about art, incidentally? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| And I am not confidently asserting conclusions based on little more than my impressions of the situation as filtered through my preexisting worldview, either, Ya-ta Boy. |
Are you saying then that you are content to live in your ivory tower? News of the day is history in the making. It is rough, incomplete, biased and inconclusive. Nevertheless, leaders have to make decisions. That is what message boards are all about. Take the information available and draw a conclusion. None of us will be around in a few centuries to know if that decision was right, but it is the obligation of leaders...and posters on message boards.
As everyone who has passed a freshman course in college history knows, if you don't learn from history, you are doomed... But then professional historians cop out and say, "Come back in a few centuries and we'll tell you what you should have done." Henry Ford was probably right. "History is bunk". If history does not tell you what you should do in the present moment, then it is worthless.
Art is pretty cool. It tells a whole lot about the thinking of the past. It doesn't presume to tell anything about what should be done in the present. History's justification is that it can teach lessons. I shoulda... is not very useful to anyone. It's just self-abuse. Beating yourself up will not get anyone anywhere. Art is about the soaring of the human spirit to the highest levels we can attain. There is no connection with history except what I mentioned above: art tells us how people used to think.
Back on topic:
1. Georgia was right.
2. Russia was right.
3. Other POV.
International politics is a whole lot like life. It is seldom black or white. I think it is to the advantage of the world that Russia not be allowed to act in Georgia as it wishes. Yes, people can bring up Kosovo. Yes, Georgia shouldn't have reacted to the provocations. Yes, Georgia has an oil pipeline. Yes, Russia has a 'right' to protect 'Russian' citizens.
The question remains: How should the world react to the Russian move across it's borders? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| I hope Azerbaijan and Armenia are taking a real close look at this because they could potentially have the same thing happen there. |
I would add Ukraine and the other former Soviet states to that list. It is not to the interest of the rest of the world for the Russians to dominate its 'near abroad'. It's probably to everyone's interest (except Russia's) to encourage a Greater Turkey as a counter weight. (Sorry Kurds.) |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
| I hope Azerbaijan and Armenia are taking a real close look at this because they could potentially have the same thing happen there. |
I would add Ukraine and the other former Soviet states to that list. It is not to the interest of the rest of the world for the Russians to dominate its 'near abroad'. It's probably to everyone's interest (except Russia's) to encourage a Greater Turkey as a counter weight. (Sorry Kurds.) |
Yeah, pretty much. The more power Turkey has the better. They've been really good on the regional diplomacy front recently too (mediation between Syria and Israel). |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Are you saying then that you are content to live in your ivory tower? News of the day is history in the making. It is rough, incomplete, biased and inconclusive. Nevertheless, leaders have to make decisions. That is what message boards are all about. |
Are you "a leader," Ya-ta Boy? Are you tasked to decide "what to do" about this problem? This is a message board of mostly half-educated amateurs -- and not leaders or even leaders' advisers -- who wield far more attitude than information and who, moreover, leap before they look nine times out of ten. As far as that goes, it is fine. People talk about current events, it is interesting, and that is why most of us come here.
And I am saying that if people are going to incautiously assert a positive conclusion based on no evidence, and then decide "what to do about it," I get to tell them that they need to come back down to Earth and realize just that: they do not know what they are talking about; they are just going with their impressions of the moment; and they are urging others to join them in leaping before they look. All we really know, in fact, is that another war has begun near the Middle Eastern theater. And it seems to be exacerbating American and Russian differences in that part of the world.
And do not kid yourself: leaders have far more fact-based information and professional analysis at their command than any of us here. Just watching cable news coverage or Googling something to reduce this issue to "oil," for example, does not place you in the same league.
As far as your continuing attitude toward professional history goes, I am not certain what that has to do with this discussion other than it remains my discipline and you seem to be taking a shot. Very well, take your shot. You are way off on your very simplistic "history's justification," however. Why not read some of the literature on this -- Nietzsche, Marc Bloch, others? For a vision of history and the past's centrality in consciousness and politics, reread George Orwell's 1984, to cite another example, a more high-profile ref others here have likely already read.
But, in any case, whether you do or not, the surprising thing here is that I never saw you as such an antiintellectual Philistine before. We are not an ant or bee colony, Ya-ta Boy. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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Meh, it's one of those period spats that breaks out. How riled up can outsiders get over 70,000 Ossetians?
Saakashvili blundered by launching his surprise attack against the seperatists and the Russians took advantage of the situation to give it's wee neighbour a bloody nose.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7551576.stm |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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Nice link. I see hints that Russian concerns about NATO played their part in this...
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| [On Thursday, 7 August,] Russia's special envoy in South Ossetia, Yuri Popov, says Georgia's military operation shows that it cannot be trusted and he calls on Nato to reconsider plans to offer it membership... |
Also, "former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev said Thursday 'there is no doubt' that Georgia provoked the clash..."
CNN Reports
This affair seems to involve much more than simply "oil." |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, it's one of those tensions that's been simmering for some years now, the occasional news article popping about some argument or other. If you search the back-dated archives on various news websitse you soon find plenty of articles from years ago. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: |
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| chellovek wrote: |
| If you search the back-dated archives on various news websitse you soon find plenty of articles from years ago. |
Here is something...
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Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs
Washington, DC
June 29, 2005
The United States and the South Ossetian Conflict
[This fact sheet was updated on March 31, 2008]
Background
Though territorial disputes between the Ossetians of the South Caucasus and Georgians can be dated back as far as the seventeenth century, the contemporary armed conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia can be traced to 1920, when a South Ossetian attempt to declare independence from Georgia as a Soviet Republic ended in several thousand deaths. Following the 1921 Red Army invasion of Georgia...
Recent Developments
The cessation of hostilities brought on by the Sochi Agreement held fast into 2004. At that point, Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze had been replaced by Mikheil Saakashvili, who expressed a renewed interest in reintegrating Georgia's separatist regions...
OSCE Involvement
The Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) maintains a presence in South Ossetia with a mandate to promote negotiations between the conflicting parties, monitor the activities of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces (JPKF), assist the Georgian government in fulfilling its OSCE commitments on human rights, rule of law, and democratization, and provide regular analyses and reports on developments in the region.
U.S. Policy and Role
The United States supports the territorial integrity of Georgia and supports only a peaceful resolution of the separatist conflict in South Ossetia. The United States views Georgia's proposal for peace as an important first step in a peace process that should be marked by direct and frequent negotiations between the two sides. The U.S. encourages the sides, with the help of the international community, to intensify their efforts to find a sustainable and peaceful solution to the conflict. |
State.gov
State's fact sheet on Georgia |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
| Count me in as one both opposed to the War in Iraq and a supporter of Georgia in this conflict. |
Seconded.
I staying awake for high school Social Studies lessons on Sovereignty (but not much else). |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:34 am Post subject: |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| Count me in as one both opposed to the War in Iraq and a supporter of Georgia in this conflict. |
Seconded.
I staying awake for high school Social Studies lessons on Sovereignty (but not much else). |
I cannot say I support Georgia or Russia. The Ossetians are Christian Iranian type people mostly who don't want to be part of Georgia. North Ossetia is part of Russia, and the people of South Ossetia want to join the North. Anyway, the US and Western Europe can complain all they want, but they set a bad precedent when they took Serbian territory called Kossovo away from Serbia, so it would be hypocritical for NATO to criticize Russia in this case, but Georgia outside of Ossetia shouldn't be occupied by the Russians. Russia doesn't want NATO too close just like the US in the old days didn't want Soviet influence in Latin America.
This is very predictable. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: South Ossetia |
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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4493620.ece
http://www.kommersant.com/p1011579/r_1/Interview_of_Mikhail_Saakashvili/
Georgia appears to be the aggressor here, yet the media generally appears to be unfairly portraying the Russians, as the main culprits. It was the Georgians, that broke the initial ceasefire and virtually destroyed and depopulated the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.
Mikhail Gorbachev, former president of the Soviet Union, in The Washington Post: "Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem � is through peaceful means. Indeed, in a civilized world, there is no other way. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle. What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against 'small, defenseless Georgia' is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity. � Of course, peace in the Caucasus is in everyone's interest. But it is simply common sense to recognize that Russia is rooted there by common geography and centuries of history. Russia is not seeking territorial expansion, but it has legitimate interests in this region."
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/08/tougher-respons.html
And from CNN:
"Western television didn't show what happened in Tskhinvali," Gorbachev said. "Only now they're beginning to show some pictures of the destruction. So this looks to me like it was a well-prepared project. And with any outcome, they wanted to put the blame on Russia."
Or am I missing something here? |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:10 am Post subject: |
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| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Or am I missing something here? |
Nope. And it seems that a larger context is unfolding as we speak...
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WARSAW, Poland - An agreement that will allow the United States to install a missile defense battery in Poland exposes the ex-communist nation to an attack, a Russian general said Friday.
Poland and the United States struck a deal on Thursday to deepen military ties and place a missile interceptor base in Poland.
Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff told reporters Friday that the agreement exacerbates U.S.-Russian relations that are already tense because of fighting between Georgian and Russian forces. He said the deal "cannot go unpunished..." |
MSNBC Reports |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: |
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| This will probably end in Ukraine being hustled into NATO. That will effectively contain Russian expansionism unless they're willing to go to war with Europe and the US, assuming that Europe doesn't fold. I doubt that would happen. |
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