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Yaya
Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul
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 Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 1:04 am Post subject: |
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| I've noticed that salaries for NETs have remained around 2 million or 2.2 million won with housing, severance pay and airfare. At least in China, your salary in dollars would remain pretty much the same since the won is so vulnerable to external factors. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 1:33 am Post subject: |
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| tideout wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
harryh:
Too many different things in your post to respond to specifically but I do think your overall view is correct.
I think anyone dismissing this as just another economic cycle, just another up and down may not be seeing the bigger structural problems. I guess I've found a number of writers and bloggers (also not mainstream media) who are writing about the bigger issues to be pretty credible at this point.
I've been reading Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds blog as well as The Automatic Earth.org blog
The "authorities" ie. NY Times, Greenspan, the IMF, the Troika etc.. seem either unable to see what's coming or unable to stop the downward slide with any of the usual tricks in the bag. |
What about the latest economic numbers from the U.S.? They were pretty positive.
Or do you discount them because you don't believe in the media, the government, etc.?
One credible take on today's global economy is that there is a power vacuum at the top with no one power being able to coerce the others into taking necessary actions on the economy, environment, etc. and that until things sort themselves out the next decade is going to be quite chaotic. |
I think "media' (I assume you're referring to the mainstream media?) and "the government" have their agendas. BTW, I think both parties (US) play the game so its not limited by partisanship etc..)
I don't think you have to doubt the literal numbers necessarily but it still leaves how the numbers are interpreted/talked about etc.. A common example is unemployment - everyone knows the published unemployment #'s are higher than reported (I think you have to reference the "g-17" unemployment number to get the total with those who've fallen off the rolls?). It's not a conspiracy issue but when the WH spokesman for either party talks to the press they're going to give the stat they like right? So, yes, I'm doubtful about what we're hearing and we have to be a little doubtful when "journalists" rarely seem to press these issues.
Maybe you're referring to the Job creation #'s? Again it's not that 180K jobs in a given months is bad - it's certainly better than a month with 90K. But when you realize that we need 200K + to start making up for lost ground - you see it for the difficult problem it is. I believe it was stats for March where South Korea created 340K (+/-) jobs while the US created 180K jobs? Certainly something to think about.
I think you make a good point on the "vacuum" at the top but that doesn't discount the credibility issues in any way.
A book that might be of interest that's coming out (maybe available?) is Every Nation for Itself:Winners and Losers in G-Zero World that I think points to your thoughts on it. |
That's the book. I was specifically referencing home sales numbers, which continue to improve and of course represent an industry that when it's going well lifts a lot of boats.
As for the employment numbers, it's so well known and well reported that the number doesn't include the underemployed, etc. that I don't think anyone's using those stats in an underhanded way.
Not doubting your numbers, but where do you get the SK employment figures? Don't forget, local and state governments are still shedding workers in the U.S. and that hurts the statistics. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 1:35 am Post subject: |
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| JustinC wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
I think anyone dismissing this as just another economic cycle, just another up and down may not be seeing the bigger structural problems. I guess I've found a number of writers and bloggers (also not mainstream media) who are writing about the bigger issues to be pretty credible at this point.
I've been reading Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds blog as well as The Automatic Earth.org blog
The "authorities" ie. NY Times, Greenspan, the IMF, the Troika etc.. seem either unable to see what's coming or unable to stop the downward slide with any of the usual tricks in the bag. |
You might like to read http://www.zerohedge.com/ as well, then.
Personally I'm not so inclined to see the end of the World as coming this century. It's never different this time, regardless of how strong a blogger's convictions are (or how much he wants to sell his books  ). I prefer reading http://www.bespokeinvest.com/ , http://www.econbrowser.com/ and http://seekingalpha.com/
I agree inflation is a lot higher than what we're being told, but a high rate is natural with hundreds of millions more people buying stuff. Unemployment is 8%+ in the US and 10% in Europe but only 4% in China and 3.7% here in Korea. The World is booming, just not for the working and middle classes in post-industrialized nations. This is not going to get better any time soon, as the number of nations we can exploit is rapidly decreasing.
Household debt here is the same as Canada's, as a percentage of income. Not exactly a huge burden, especially with full employment. Also Korea's national (government) debt is 32% of GDP and predicted to fall. That's better than any country in Western Europe or North America. Is the KRW weaker or the USD stronger? IMO people are buying dollars just in case another shoe drops, not because it definitely will. And, if it takes a weaker won to keep markets buying Korean products and the government in revenues (and me in a job) then who am I to argue? Yes, our spending power is going down but haven't NETs here been overpaid for years? I'm not saying they have but it's another perspective to consider. |
I've seen this claim about inflation made again and again, but I've yet to see anyone provide substantive proof. Do you have any? |
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tideout
Joined: 12 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 4:20 am Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
harryh:
Too many different things in your post to respond to specifically but I do think your overall view is correct.
I think anyone dismissing this as just another economic cycle, just another up and down may not be seeing the bigger structural problems. I guess I've found a number of writers and bloggers (also not mainstream media) who are writing about the bigger issues to be pretty credible at this point.
I've been reading Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds blog as well as The Automatic Earth.org blog
The "authorities" ie. NY Times, Greenspan, the IMF, the Troika etc.. seem either unable to see what's coming or unable to stop the downward slide with any of the usual tricks in the bag. |
What about the latest economic numbers from the U.S.? They were pretty positive.
Or do you discount them because you don't believe in the media, the government, etc.?
One credible take on today's global economy is that there is a power vacuum at the top with no one power being able to coerce the others into taking necessary actions on the economy, environment, etc. and that until things sort themselves out the next decade is going to be quite chaotic. |
I think "media' (I assume you're referring to the mainstream media?) and "the government" have their agendas. BTW, I think both parties (US) play the game so its not limited by partisanship etc..)
I don't think you have to doubt the literal numbers necessarily but it still leaves how the numbers are interpreted/talked about etc.. A common example is unemployment - everyone knows the published unemployment #'s are higher than reported (I think you have to reference the "g-17" unemployment number to get the total with those who've fallen off the rolls?). It's not a conspiracy issue but when the WH spokesman for either party talks to the press they're going to give the stat they like right? So, yes, I'm doubtful about what we're hearing and we have to be a little doubtful when "journalists" rarely seem to press these issues.
Maybe you're referring to the Job creation #'s? Again it's not that 180K jobs in a given months is bad - it's certainly better than a month with 90K. But when you realize that we need 200K + to start making up for lost ground - you see it for the difficult problem it is. I believe it was stats for March where South Korea created 340K (+/-) jobs while the US created 180K jobs? Certainly something to think about.
I think you make a good point on the "vacuum" at the top but that doesn't discount the credibility issues in any way.
A book that might be of interest that's coming out (maybe available?) is Every Nation for Itself:Winners and Losers in G-Zero World that I think points to your thoughts on it. |
That's the book. I was specifically referencing home sales numbers, which continue to improve and of course represent an industry that when it's going well lifts a lot of boats.
As for the employment numbers, it's so well known and well reported that the number doesn't include the underemployed, etc. that I don't think anyone's using those stats in an underhanded way.
Not doubting your numbers, but where do you get the SK employment figures? Don't forget, local and state governments are still shedding workers in the U.S. and that hurts the statistics. |
I'm sorry I don't have the link or reference for it. It was one of those odd moments of synchronicity when I flipped between the NYTimes and the Korea Times and there were stories/numbers for both countries. I remember it as being pretty surprising for how many more jobs SK had created.
I hope I didn't give you the impression I thought the US employments #'s were particularly good - I was just giving an example in response to a previous poster's questioning why I was skeptical of the media and government. Just an example.
The housing issue is another interesting example. I'd followed a lot of the early blogs on the housing bubble going back to something like 2006 for reasons I won't go into here. The gist of it was the "housing boom" was being lampooned at least a couple of years early on a blog called Seattle Housing Bubble. The media was pumping the story as they were dying to keep their advertising revenue streams up. City governments all over the country were going nuts with all of the new tax revenues they were finding. Everyone was a hero and was rich. The problem was none of it was real. Some skeptics in the non-traditional side of news were smart enough to call it like it was.
I consider the housing "recovery" to be a questionable story though there might be blips here and there. The issue is something like a million homes exist in the inventory of the banking industry. In short, they didn't want to mark them to market or it would be obvious what shape their balance sheets were really in still. Some of this came out recently when the banking industry and congress came to terms on foreclosure processes. So, I'm not saying there's no improvement but with few added jobs, banks not loaning etc.. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet.
Just to clarify - I'm not really arguing with you but saying there's a lot to be skeptical about some of the mainstream sources or what your congressman/woman tells you. 
You're right btw, the housing industry's a big deal.
How do you like the book? |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 6:18 am Post subject: |
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| The 1997-98 downturn was worse in terms of exchange rates. But, it was quick and things turned around quickly. This time, the drop in rates during 2008 and 2009 were not as deep but as of 2012 have not gone back up. Just enough to string us along but not to make as much progress for those of us with either debts out of Korea or just the need to save money to start a life in the west someday. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| dairyairy wrote: |
| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
[
Well, that's all well and good if you're a long time resident here. Wait it out. But there's a large percentage of people who come for a year or two and leave. For them the currency drop is a big issue regardless of what the IMF or anyone else says.
. |
If they are here for a year or two then the currency drop is only going to cost them a couple of hundred dollars. That is not a big issue. It's really not going to make any difference in their lives back home. Especially once they've been working for a few years back home (then the two hundred or so dollars becomes so insignificant in relation to their current earnings that it becomes a non-issue).
Put another way who looks back on their life and thinks "Among all my regrets a really big one is that I didn't get those 2 hundred dollars extra due to a currency drop when I was in Korea. It would have made such a big difference in my life"? |
I disagree with your assumptions. First, I wire back at least 1,000,000 won each month. |
If I were you I wouldn't be wiring back money EVERY month as that is going to cost you money. Especially seeing as you can carry up to just under $10,000 on your person without declaring it back home at contract's end.
Yes you may have debts and the like back home to pay off...but in that case you are not saving money.
And anyway I was talking about people here for a year or so...not long term.
I stand by my statements. Sure no one wants to lose a couple of hundred bucks...but my point is that long term that is not going to make an iota of difference to your long term financial health.
And we are not talking about losing said amount every year. I am talking about a ONE-OFF event. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| I consider the housing "recovery" to be a questionable story though there might be blips here and there. The issue is something like a million homes exist in the inventory of the banking industry. In short, they didn't want to mark them to market or it would be obvious what shape their balance sheets were really in still. Some of this came out recently when the banking industry and congress came to terms on foreclosure processes. So, I'm not saying there's no improvement but with few added jobs, banks not loaning etc.. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet. |
I wouldn't call it a recovery either. But the evidence is that it's hit bottom, which is still good news. There's a lot of pent-up demand, rents are quite high, etc. also, but I'd guess home prices, which most probably equate with "recovery" are going to be fairly flat for a while to come. But homes are starting to sell and new homes are being built.
Being skeptical is a necessity to intelligent thought, but it should not be a broad brush that ends up covering the good with the bad and that same skepticism should be applied to blogs as well. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
| dairyairy wrote: |
| TheUrbanMyth wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
[
Well, that's all well and good if you're a long time resident here. Wait it out. But there's a large percentage of people who come for a year or two and leave. For them the currency drop is a big issue regardless of what the IMF or anyone else says.
. |
If they are here for a year or two then the currency drop is only going to cost them a couple of hundred dollars. That is not a big issue. It's really not going to make any difference in their lives back home. Especially once they've been working for a few years back home (then the two hundred or so dollars becomes so insignificant in relation to their current earnings that it becomes a non-issue).
Put another way who looks back on their life and thinks "Among all my regrets a really big one is that I didn't get those 2 hundred dollars extra due to a currency drop when I was in Korea. It would have made such a big difference in my life"? |
I disagree with your assumptions. First, I wire back at least 1,000,000 won each month. |
If I were you I wouldn't be wiring back money EVERY month as that is going to cost you money. Especially seeing as you can carry up to just under $10,000 on your person without declaring it back home at contract's end.
Yes you may have debts and the like back home to pay off...but in that case you are not saving money.
And anyway I was talking about people here for a year or so...not long term.
I stand by my statements. Sure no one wants to lose a couple of hundred bucks...but my point is that long term that is not going to make an iota of difference to your long term financial health.
And we are not talking about losing said amount every year. I am talking about a ONE-OFF event. |
Good advice--anyone sending money home every month is getting eaten up by fees.
You say you;re standing by your statement, but then you qualify it--"one-off." Unfortunately, the won's been weak for several years now. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| I've seen this claim about inflation made again and again, but I've yet to see anyone provide substantive proof. Do you have any? |
Are you asking about the idea that US inflation is higher than what is being reported?
The only way the US is going to get out of bankruptcy/default is thru "controlled" inflation, except that of course once you open that box you can not control it. Obviously you can't let the lender see you are intentionally inflating your way out of the debt, and playing a very dangerous game by unlocking the "inflation genie". Therefore the government doing the measurement isn't going to shoot their own foot off.
It's not "substantive proof" whatever that is, nor can we probably know, it's more like common sense. It doesn�t mean we know inflation is higher than what is being reported, it just means there is obvious motive for concealing the actual numbers. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| I've seen this claim about inflation made again and again, but I've yet to see anyone provide substantive proof. Do you have any? |
Are you asking about the idea that US inflation is higher than what is being reported?
The only way the US is going to get out of bankruptcy/default is thru "controlled" inflation, except that of course once you open that box you can not control it. Obviously you can't let the lender see you are intentionally inflating your way out of the debt, and playing a very dangerous game by unlocking the "inflation genie". Therefore the government doing the measurement isn't going to shoot their own foot off.
It's not "substantive proof" whatever that is, nor can we probably know, it's more like common sense. It doesn�t mean we know inflation is higher than what is being reported, it just means there is obvious motive for concealing the actual numbers. |
So you have a theory based on a belief that the U.S. is somehow close to defaulting and that "the only way" out of such a scenario is for the government to inflate its way out, disregarding the fact that there are many other ways for the U.S. to work its way out of debt.
The motive is only "obvious' if one buys into your hypothesis. One obvious question is what motives would the people who compile and publish those figures have to gain from manipulating them? Or are you claiming that someone higher in the government steps in to change the numbers while all the people who worked on them remain silent?
I think you might have a movie, but I'm a little more doubtful about your claim of "common sense." |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Zyzyfer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| motiontodismiss wrote: |
Exactly. The domestic economy here is on the brink of collapse. The household debt problem, the real estate bubble, soaring cost of living....all of these problems are going to burst at one point and basically that'll be the end of the Korean economy. The country relys too heavily on exports. Seriously. |
That's your economic analysis? |
What's yours?
(This should be good.) |
Actually I doubt you will think it is good.
Investment analysis is what I do for a living and my analysis = East > West for the foreseeable future. Thus base investments including residence/citizenship accordingly. |
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KimchiNinja
Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam
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| Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| So you have a theory based on a belief that the U.S. is somehow close to defaulting and that "the only way" out of such a scenario is for the government to inflate its way out, disregarding the fact that there are many other ways for the U.S. to work its way out of debt. |
What exactly would those other ways be?
You asked the question, I just gave you the answer. You don't have to get all crazy about it. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 5:27 am Post subject: |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| So you have a theory based on a belief that the U.S. is somehow close to defaulting and that "the only way" out of such a scenario is for the government to inflate its way out, disregarding the fact that there are many other ways for the U.S. to work its way out of debt. |
What exactly would those other ways be?
You asked the question, I just gave you the answer. You don't have to get all crazy about it. |
Raise taxes for instance. Cut spending. Get a handle on entitlements. The economy improves and tax revenues increase, which is what happened the last time there was concern about the debt. That's just off the top of my head. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 5:30 am Post subject: |
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| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| Zyzyfer wrote: |
| KimchiNinja wrote: |
| motiontodismiss wrote: |
Exactly. The domestic economy here is on the brink of collapse. The household debt problem, the real estate bubble, soaring cost of living....all of these problems are going to burst at one point and basically that'll be the end of the Korean economy. The country relys too heavily on exports. Seriously. |
That's your economic analysis? |
What's yours?
(This should be good.) |
Actually I doubt you will think it is good.
Investment analysis is what I do for a living and my analysis = East > West for the foreseeable future. Thus base investments including residence/citizenship accordingly. |
Crystal ball--I dig it.
You think China's going to manage a soft landing and be able to keep a grip on the populace? Could you explain your thinking on that. One has to wonder what all the rich Chinese who are busy acquiring U.S. visas know that we don't. |
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JustinC
Joined: 10 Mar 2012
Location: We Are The World!
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| Posted: Fri May 25, 2012 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| JustinC wrote: |
| tideout wrote: |
I think anyone dismissing this as just another economic cycle, just another up and down may not be seeing the bigger structural problems. I guess I've found a number of writers and bloggers (also not mainstream media) who are writing about the bigger issues to be pretty credible at this point.
I've been reading Charles Hugh Smith's Of Two Minds blog as well as The Automatic Earth.org blog
The "authorities" ie. NY Times, Greenspan, the IMF, the Troika etc.. seem either unable to see what's coming or unable to stop the downward slide with any of the usual tricks in the bag. |
You might like to read http://www.zerohedge.com/ as well, then.
Personally I'm not so inclined to see the end of the World as coming this century. It's never different this time, regardless of how strong a blogger's convictions are (or how much he wants to sell his books ). I prefer reading http://www.bespokeinvest.com/ , http://www.econbrowser.com/ and http://seekingalpha.com/
I agree inflation is a lot higher than what we're being told, but a high rate is natural with hundreds of millions more people buying stuff. Unemployment is 8%+ in the US and 10% in Europe but only 4% in China and 3.7% here in Korea. The World is booming, just not for the working and middle classes in post-industrialized nations. This is not going to get better any time soon, as the number of nations we can exploit is rapidly decreasing.
Household debt here is the same as Canada's, as a percentage of income. Not exactly a huge burden, especially with full employment. Also Korea's national (government) debt is 32% of GDP and predicted to fall. That's better than any country in Western Europe or North America. Is the KRW weaker or the USD stronger? IMO people are buying dollars just in case another shoe drops, not because it definitely will. And, if it takes a weaker won to keep markets buying Korean products and the government in revenues (and me in a job) then who am I to argue? Yes, our spending power is going down but haven't NETs here been overpaid for years? I'm not saying they have but it's another perspective to consider. |
I've seen this claim about inflation made again and again, but I've yet to see anyone provide substantive proof. Do you have any? |
BUTTER. Bloody well butter is ridiculously expensive compared to a few years ago. So is milk and bread. They've all gone up 100% or more. I don't have exact figures as I've been living overseas since 2007 but they all seem more expensive now. Butter was about �1 when I was buying in the UK when I was in my desk job, now it's over �2. Here it's �4. I could get a decent loaf for under a quid then too. No way, now. Petrol was about 70p a litre then, now it's 125p a litre in the UK and nearly $4 a gallon in the US. |
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