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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 7:17 am Post subject: US Economy grows 3.9% in 3rd Quarter |
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Surprising news for a nation beset by a sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Apparently, the fall of the dollar is increasing exports.
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| Exporters also had a strong showing, increasing their sales overseas by more than 16 percent, while imports only increased a little over 5 percent. |
But the burst of the housing bubble kept the 3rd quarter from hitting 5% growth.
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| Overall residential investment fell 20 percent between July and October, subtracting more than a full percentage point from economic growth. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 7:39 am Post subject: |
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This would be evidence that the US isn't falling into the abyss of mediocrity. So many on this board seem to be salivating at China's rise and America's demise 
But as has been said, just because China's economy is rising doesn't mean America's is falling. Some lefties can't get their head around the concept of capital creation. Which means the potential for wealth is unlimited for everyone. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| Pluto wrote: |
This would be evidence that the US isn't falling into the abyss of mediocrity. So many on this board seem to be salivating at China's rise and America's demise
But as has been said, just because China's economy is rising doesn't mean America's is falling. Some lefties can't get their head around the concept of capital creation. Which means the potential for wealth is unlimited for everyone. |
Right. 'Leftist economics' is a graveyard of refuted theories.
Zero-sum, Import Substitution, Socialist Protectionism, High Tax Regimes, etc.
Right now, America is benefitting from China's growth, just as America did from Japan's ~9% annual growth throughout each year of the 70s. |
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W.T.Carl
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Oh my God! The American economy isn't crashing! It must be a neo-con plot! |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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I'd be interested to know where the U.S. economy is expanding.
Definetely everything centered around Iraq. That's where all the money goes anyways. |
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lucas_p
Joined: 17 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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Playing devil's advocate a bit here:
Just because the economy isn't OMG, collapsing -- doesn't mean things are peachy keen in the States.
The job market for skilled/educated workers is still a free for all in many places. People are having to sell off cars and houses at a huge rate. The cost of living in many places is just outrageous adding up expenses.
Yeah, I agree, I don't think America is falling to pieces...but unless you already have your foot and leg and torso in the door, it is also becoming more and more difficult to create and live a nice established life there. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 3:34 am Post subject: |
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Not playing Devil's Advocate here:
Every crash has been led by a big, unsustainable run up. Brilliant thinking, guys. Let's blow the wad then crash and burn!
1. Global Warming is taking a toll already. Grains are at crazy prices. But, hey, no problem with FOOD. Heck, the market will handle it...
2. Peak Oil is already causing shortages. Production has been flat for THREE YEARS... consumption is growing at over 2% a year... yet you all wonder why prices are rising...
The King of Saudi Arabia said THIS WEEK, the ride is over. Production is essentially stalled.
The man who led Saudi exploration and development has also said production is essentially flat lining. He said that this week.
He also said, as I have posted repeatedly on the Peak Oil thread, that the OPEC reserves are 300,000,000,000 barrels less than OPEC claims. That this was true was obvious to any that cared to look at reality. So, proven reserves just dropped by 25%. TWENTY FIVE PERCENT. That takes them from 1,100,000,000,000 barrels to 800,000,000,000. Since we have already used 1,000,000,000,000 barrels, guess what that means? Yes, kiddies, Peak Oil has arrived.
Given Saudi Arabia is THE lynch pin of the oil industry, you might just want to listen to the two of them.
3. Economics DOES NOT handle "public good" issues well. It is, in fact, lousy at dealing with them. Private goods work well in economic models, but not public good issues. This is why health care and similar good and/or services are so screwed up in the US. The private sector doesn't care if you are poor or just lost your job due to downsizing, for example. No, the market will not solve these problems.
4. War spending always boosts the economy. People used to believe it was a purely positive thing. We know now that after about five years the spending takes a toll because, among other things, it does not lead to improvements in things like infrastructure. The gains are all illusory as most of the money gets put into the pockets of a few, as is happening now with Halliburton, et al. The economic strain starts to show at about the 5 year mark. Isn't that coming up in just about 6 months?
Yeah, everything's just peachy. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:05 am Post subject: |
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Juuuust peachy...
Foreclosure Filings Soar in 3rd Quarter
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Thursday November 1, 5:34 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Number of US Homes Facing Foreclosure Doubles in Third Quarter
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- A soaring number of U.S. homeowners struggled to make mortgage payments in the third quarter, with properties in some stage of foreclosure more than doubling from the same time last year, a mortgage data company said Thursday.
A total of 446,726 homes nationwide were targeted by some sort of foreclosure activity from July to September, up 100.1 percent from 223,233 properties in the year-ago period, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.
The current figure was 33.9 percent higher than the 333,731 properties in foreclosure in the second quarter of this year.
There was one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation during the most recent quarter, RealtyTrac said.
All but five states reported a year-over-year increase in foreclosure filings, which include notices of default, auction sale notices or bank repossessions, the company said... |
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Thunndarr
Joined: 30 Sep 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:18 am Post subject: |
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Yep, the stock market sucks. I keep telling myself that everytime I look at my portfolio and realize my profit for the last year is equal to what most ESL teachers save for a year. Yep, crap market.
The sky is falling, run for the hills, stock up on tinfoil hats, and drink your own urine. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:35 am Post subject: |
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| Tiger Beer wrote: |
I'd be interested to know where the U.S. economy is expanding.
Definetely everything centered around Iraq. That's where all the money goes anyways. |
All the reconstruction contracts are finished. Iraq is bringing down the economy. Absent actual evidence to the contrary, I think this theory is unpersuasive.
| lucas_p wrote: |
| Just because the economy isn't OMG, collapsing -- doesn't mean things are peachy keen in the States. |
I think we'll start seeing a downturn as soon as next quarter, but definitely by the first quarter of 2008. It hasn't 'hit' yet. But I think the news is exacerbating the size of the potential losses to subprimes in comparison with the gigantic size of the rest of the US economy.
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The job market for skilled/educated workers is still a free for all in many places. People are having to sell off cars and houses at a huge rate. The cost of living in many places is just outrageous adding up expenses.
Yeah, I agree, I don't think America is falling to pieces...but unless you already have your foot and leg and torso in the door, it is also becoming more and more difficult to create and live a nice established life there. |
The primary problem to cost of living in America is being addressed: the bubble in the housing market has burst. The people who are suffering were people who a) were living beyond their means w/o excuse, b) people who were deceived into living beyond their means by predatory lenders.
I think it is becoming more difficult to live at the standard of living to which we've become accustomed. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:56 am Post subject: |
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| It's a backward looking number, next quarter might be bad. Housing and financials will be a drag on the economy. Exports will offset them. Fed says risks are balanced. Oil is the wildcard, it is way overvalued here. If other countries cut it should be okay, if other countries raise or neutral...bad for the U.S. dollar and oil which is denominated in U.S. dollars will continue to rise. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 7:18 am Post subject: |
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| Thunndarr wrote: |
| Yep, the stock market sucks. |
News flash: Stock Market does not = economy.
Why do you need this explained to you if you are making so much money from the stock market? |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 7:26 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| Oil is the wildcard, it is way overvalued here. |
Aren't you a market-oriented person? You believe the market will provide, right? It will sort out all the messy details, right? Tell us all: what happens when a commodity's production is flat for three years while demand grows at 2% a year?
This is not a trick question, so why do you refuse to grasp this fundamental fact? Oil supply is NOT growing, but demand is. What the hell do you THINK the price should be doing? Might I also point out that the price has been rising essentially for EIGHT YEARS?
One more time: if oil supply is stagnant for 3 years, but consumption is rising at 2% a year, what would one expect in terms of price?
BTW, there was another large drop in US supply of 3+ million barrels... |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 7:56 am Post subject: |
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Free Market Soulutions? A question about the electric car came up a little while ago. Some more information on the chevy Volt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGH0hedjW6Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgTcdfkihE4
While there are concepts of supply and demand, there are also concepts of substitutes and compliments at play here as well.
You should also take into account elasticities of demand, both short term and long term. All these come into play in regards to the price of oil and gasoline. |
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Thunndarr
Joined: 30 Sep 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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| keane wrote: |
| Thunndarr wrote: |
| Yep, the stock market sucks. |
News flash: Stock Market does not = economy.
Why do you need this explained to you if you are making so much money from the stock market? |
Oh, goodness gracious me. I really should have put this in the Stock Market Meltdown thread.
On the other hand, when a certain someone wrote this:
| A gigantic ass wrote: |
| Every crash has been led by a big, unsustainable run up. Brilliant thinking, guys. Let's blow the wad then crash and burn! |
It sure looked like someone was talking about the stock market. So, either you were in fact referring to the market, or your writing just plain sucks. Either way, you're an ass. |
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