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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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 Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:40 pm Post subject: Oil Overvalued by as much as 33% |
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Tesoro (one of U.S.'s top refineries) Chief Economist Lynn Westfall:
Why is oil $90? "Hedge Funds inflating the price. Overreaction to Geopolitcal headlines. Psychology drives the market in the short term, fundamentals in the long term."
"OPEC doesn't want oil this high because substitutes start to kick in and when the price pulls back, the substitutes won't dissapear."
"There is no shortage of crude."
"We are able to buy all the crude we want."
"People are BANGING ON OUR DOORS to sell us crude."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=576568371&play=1
Oil prices are too high, China tells OPEC
A senior policy maker from China's energy bureau said that China had no problem finding crude, but objected to prices that last week hit a record of more than $90 a barrel. By Wednesday, the benchmark price had retreated below $85 a barrel.
"The oil price is too high, but we don't see any shortages," the official, who declined to be named, said.
But Javad Yarjani, head of OPEC affairs at Iran's Oil Ministry, said fear rather than fundamentals were driving markets.
"The real reason for prices being so high is not the shortage of crude oil. Fundamentally there is no problem," Yarjani said.
"There is a fear factor - discussions of a political nature which are pushing up prices. We have to go back to the basics of the oil market, which is demand-supply, investments, flow of technology," he said.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/24/business/opec.php
Keane to refute in 5, 4, 3.... |
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Leavingkorea
Joined: 27 Apr 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| A large part of the over pricing that EFL does not understand (among other things) is to do with currency values. Canada's dollar rise is having a huge impact. The massively lower U.S. one across world markets is even bigger. If the U.S. dollar has dropped 20-40% in value and oil is based on the U.S. dollar...mmm |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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Whenever an oil sheik sneezes, prices go up.
Whenever Bin Lauden scratches his ass, prices go up.
Whenever an oil baron's daughter turns 16, prices go up.
Whenever a bunch of clouds form in the Gulf of Mexico, prices go up.
Currency is part of the problem, but so is rampant fear and outright market manipulation.
Props to China for saying "Enough is Enough! I've had with these mofo prices in this mofo market". |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:05 am Post subject: |
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| Leavingkorea wrote: |
| A large part of the over pricing that EFL does not understand (among other things) is to do with currency values. |
I have spoken on the value of the dollar already.
Sonny boy, when you can answer even one of my questions, THEN you can speak with contempt. Until then, shut up so you don't embarrass yourself further. I have schooled you, the supposed oil patch worker, on tar sands. What else would you like to be educated on?
To reinforce my first point let me point out that on the Peak Oil thread you will find links to stories on the current debate in Alberta regarding the gov't wanting more royalties and the shut down in business being considered by the oil companies.... even though you said oil is produced there for $15 a barrel. If that were true, the oil companies would not be threatening to shut down operations given that oil is at $90 a barrel.
You've been schooled, son, so move along.
Last edited by keane on Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:41 am; edited 1 time in total |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:12 am Post subject: |
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| agentX wrote: |
Whenever an oil sheik sneezes, prices go up.
Whenever Bin Lauden scratches his ass, prices go up.
Whenever an oil baron's daughter turns 16, prices go up.
Whenever a bunch of clouds form in the Gulf of Mexico, prices go up.
Currency is part of the problem, but so is rampant fear and outright market manipulation.
Props to China for saying "Enough is Enough! I've had with these mofo prices in this mofo market". |
This is the convenient thought for those who 1. have not educated themselves on the issues associated with a peak in oil production or 2. don't want to accept that the world is fundamentally changed at $90+ oil (with or without peak production.) |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Oil Overvalued by as much as 33% |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| "OPEC doesn't want oil this high because substitutes start to kick in and when the price pulls back, the substitutes won't disappear." |
Demand for oil will not disappear until oil disappears. That's a long way off. As time moves forward oil will first be fought over - whether politically or militarily - then hoarded, then husbanded for those uses for which there is no substitute.
the ME is investing in both alternative oil and alternative energies. Why?
| Quote: |
| "There is no shortage of crude." |
Really? Then why are inventories falling at a time of the year when inventories always rise? Why are shipments from the ME for November FALLING, not rising, when OPEC promised the world an additional 500,000 b/d? (What they didn't tell you was that Bahrain would be shutting in more than 600,000 b/d during the same period. interesting, no?) And, finally, why did King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia say the oil boom is over and will not return and we must all get used to a different lifestyle? |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:47 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| OPEC promised the world an additional 500,000 b/d? |
You're right, I believe what Hugo Chavez et. all says.
Jesus man, it's a member of OPEC and the Chief Economist of one the largest refiners saying this, it's not some two bit analyst's opinion. Companies are BANGING ON THE DOOR TO SELL THEM OIL. Reserves go up and down, it's a refinery issue, NOT a supply issue. Did you actually watch the video? |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 5:09 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| Quote: |
| OPEC promised the world an additional 500,000 b/d? |
You're right, I believe what Hugo Chavez et. all says.
Jesus man, it's a member of OPEC and the Chief Economist of one the largest refiners saying this, it's not some two bit analyst's opinion. Companies are BANGING ON THE DOOR TO SELL THEM OIL. Reserves go up and down, it's a refinery issue, NOT a supply issue. Did you actually watch the video? |
Do you really want me to post all the logical reasons why this argument is silly, then post all the news today on oil prices? Then post the numbers on production? THEN post all the details of the various reports I've already linked?
1. WHO is breaking down his door to sell him oil to refine?
2. Are ALL refiners suffering the same wonderful fate?
3. Do you think the bottleneck in refining is NOT part of the issue of peak production?
4. Why would the King of Saudi Arabia say the oil joy ride is over if it were not? How does that help him and his nation?
5. Demand has been rising at about 1.8 - 2% a year for the last three years while production has been flat. What the HELL do you think prices should be doing?
6. Oil went over 90 again today.
7. A study from a university that surveyed oil professionals found their mean date for Peak is 2010.
8. Oil stocks rise at this time of the year. Why are they falling?
Etc.
And this ain't even the HARD info, friend. Come at me with more than one data point, eh?
PS. Couldn't handle the heat on the Meltdown thread? |
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Wangja
Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 6:43 am Post subject: |
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Oil was 40 USD/barrel in 1979/80.
Is 90 USD/barrel more now in real terms than then?
And FWIW, housing in US (and UK) is probably 33% overvalued too. |
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Ilsanman
Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Bucheon, Korea
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:06 am Post subject: |
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If China is a beggar country who can not afford western prices for oil, then they can go without.
An industrialized China all driving cars is a huge disaster. The oil reserves on the planet will disappear in about 10 seconds. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Wangja wrote: |
Oil was 40 USD/barrel in 1979/80.
Is 90 USD/barrel more now in real terms than then?
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No
Last edited by Kuros on Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:51 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| I think oil was about $101.85, in real terms, in 1980. The nominal price was about 42-43 dollars. |
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Leavingkorea
Joined: 27 Apr 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| even though you said oil is produced there for $15 a barrel. If that were true, the oil companies would not be threatening to shut down operations given that oil is at $90 a barrel. |
You really are clueless as to how business operates aren't you. Lets see, someone wants to take away a part of your profits and you as a business complain. Mmmm why would that be? Go study Negotiations 1. 101 is a little to advanced for ya I think. If you think this will have any real effect in production and growth. Well that just shows what you know.
Nothing.
And if you were not mentally unstable people might actually care what you have to say. How about you cut and paste some inane sentence 50 times in a row like you have in those other threads. Because nothing proves a point like ranting like a child.
Or
Go back to the peak oil thread and keep posting to yourself.
Note to Mods. 1 person linking article after article in a thread and posting only to themselves with no other participants in not a discussion. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Leavingkorea wrote: |
| Note to Mods. 1 person linking article after article in a thread and posting only to themselves with no other participants in not a discussion. |
Note to Leaving: you being afraid of participating is not the death of a thread. Now shush. Your whine is old and boring.
BTW, the King of Saudi Arabia has stated the oil rush is over and we will ALL have to change how we live.
But, yeah, you know better than he.
Last edited by keane on Sat Oct 27, 2007 10:01 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Ilsanman wrote: |
| If China is a beggar country who can not afford western prices for oil, then they can go without. |
Who said they cannot? China has huge reserves of foreign currency. They can afford it much more easily than the US can. They are making deals for oil all over the world while the US busies itself with illegal, immoral wars for the same purpose, but far less effectively.
You are right about China and cars, but the same applies to the world and cars. The current conditions are unsustainable. That will become clear to all in time. |
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