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Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

This is an opinion piece that seems free from rhetoric and has some important points to make.

It's time to throw out that old map with the red states and blue states. The map that implies that all but a handful of states will definitely vote Republican or Democratic and that the real contest will be decided in Florida or Ohio or whatever...

In or around 1995, these alignments froze into place and pretty much stayed there for 10 years. Helping to freeze them were particular personal characteristics of the two dominant political figures of these times, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/throw_out_the_maps_in_2008.html

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

This just goes to show that Democrats are going to have to be prepared to compete in states where they may be more competitive then ever. Having a 10-15 state strategy isn't going to cut it. Going after only the small states isn't going to cut. Going after only the bright blue states isn't going to cut it.

Here's the map in 2000

Here's the map in 2004

Only three states changed between the two elections:

Republican ---->Democrat:
New Hampshire

Democrat -----> Republican:
New Mexico
Iowa

States possibly up for grabs:

Florida
Ohio
Nevada
Missouri
Virginia
Iowa
Virginia
Colorado

All states that could possibly go blue if the correct strategy is used.

Edit: I switched the 2000 map for a smaller one.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

As I mentioned on another thread, someone needs to do some polling in each state, setting Obama against McCain and see what the outcome is. It doesn't tell us anything to know what the national percentages are. The popular vote is little more than an interesting piece of trivia--what counts are electoral votes.

There's a comment somewhere saying the Obama camp is talking about a clean sweep of the states. Are they basing this on information we don't know, or is it just optimism and the fact that in most states so far, the Democratic numbers have been about double the Republican numbers?

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

Czarjorge · Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 4:00 am Post subject:

Iowa will go Dem this election. That's the only one I can say for certain.

blaseblasphemener · Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 4:32 am Post subject:

Damn, there are a lot of rednecks in the U S of A. Did they really hate Kerry that much? (see 2004 map).

Czarjorge · Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 4:39 am Post subject:

Dude, I hated Kerry that much. And I voted for the sod.

agentX · Joined: 12 Oct 2007 Location: Jeolla province