Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Tiger Beer]

Any predictions for these?

Some stats:

Nevada has a large number of Latinos and a young, fast-growing population. Almost 20 percent of its residents lack health insurance (compared with roughly 11 percent in both New Hampshire and Iowa and 16 percent in the country as a whole).

South Carolina has a poverty rate much more similar to the rest of the nation�s than the other early states do, and it also has a significant African-American population.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/03/the-primary-roles-of-south-carolina-and-nevada/index.html?ex=1349150400&en=34a6becdcfe4fb46&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[Ya-ta Boy]

For what it's worth, here is the most current polling data from Real Clear Politics for South Carolina:

Saturday, January 19 | Delegates at Stake: 47

Polling Data
Huckabee 30.7
Romney 18.0
McCain 16.3
Thompson 10.7
Giuliani 10.3
Paul 4.0

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Saturday, January 26 | Delegates at Stake: 45

Obama 42.3
Clinton 31.3
Edwards 14.3


I couldn't find any polls on Nevada. Maybe all the pollsters got caught up in the Celine Dion show in Las Vegas and haven't been out doing their job.

[Tiger Beer]

Huckabee is going to seriously clean house in South Carolina, in my opinion. Apparently in 2000, McCain was at his peak in NH, then lost badly in SC and the entire south went to Bush. Huckabee strikes me as a solid Southerner that they'll predominately vote for down there.

McCain (AZ) and Romney (UT), could go either way for Nevada. Guiliani might even go over well out there. Probably anyone but Huckabee out there.

My thoughts anyways.

[Ya-ta Boy]

The results of primary states, unlike the Iowa caucus, will give delegate counts to the national convention. That will give us some hard data to begin to get a handle of what the GOP will end up with.

I'm more than a little amused that RP is only getting 4% in South Carolina, arguably the home of States Rights. That must gall him no end.

I agree with you, TB, Huckabee is likely to sweep the Bible Belt.

I think (only think) that national conventions are set up based on popular votes last time out. That could (only could) mean that no one can win the Republican nomination without the South. Maybe (just maybe) we could have a national convention where the outcome is not determined before hand. That has not happened in either party in more than 50 years. THAT would be a media event worth watching.

[Tiger Beer]