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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: The fat lady is warming up to sing |
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Fading in polls, Clinton vows to fight on
PORTSMOUTH, New Hampshire (Reuters) - A teary-eyed Hillary Clinton pushed for support on Monday as polls showed her poised for a huge New Hampshire loss to Democratic rival Barack Obama, but the former front-runner vowed to carry on with her presidential quest even if she loses.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080107/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc
The Democratic race is over. The people of New Hampshire are doing what Iowans did. Barring an Obama blunder this month, the Dems will have their candidate chosen by February. I'm certain all the other candidates will drop out within a few weeks, Obama will be able to save money, rest, and prepare for the party convention and make his VeeP choice while the Republicans are slashing each other to pieces.
Last edited by Ya-ta Boy on Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:59 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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Tensions are running high, Ya-ta Boy. The outcome is near; we will know much about it by this time tomorrow. But let us not count our chickens or what-have-you just yet...
On this:
| Hillary Clinton wrote: |
| You know, I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don't want to see us fall backwards. |
I do not agree if she means to imply that an Obama presidency would be a step backwards. In many ways, it would be a refreshing step in a new direction. Still, I have reservations about him.
Here are my priorities at this moment. What are yours?
(1) Should the Republicans nominate McCain -- and I will vote for him in the primaries -- I will vote for McCain no matter who the Democrats nominate. I will not likely vote for any other Republican candidate.
(2) Should McCain not win the nomination, and should the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, I will happily cast my vote for her.
(3) Should McCain not win the nomination, and should the Democrats nominate Obama, I would seriously consider casting my vote for him.
(4) Should any other Democratic nominee include Richardson on the ticket as VP or possibly as SecState, I would seriously consider casting my vote for that ticket (Kuros has convinced me on Richardson).
(5) As it is, should the parties produce any other combination, I will likely abstain. Should, however, the Republicans nominate Huckabee or Ron Paul, I will vote against them; should Ron Paul run as an Independent, I will vote against him. Same goes for the Democrats and Kucinich. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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But let us not count our chickens or what-have-you just yet...
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"The early bird gets the worm". In the game of message board punditry, ya wanna be first with the claim.
To be honest, I think the most significant thing that came out of the Iowa caucus was not Obama's win, but the huge turnout. If that continues, and was not just a unique, one time only thing, it will be a major, probably the major, story of the selection of a Democratic nominee. Turnout is the great imponderable in any election. No one can predict that. (I favor an election day schedule that keeps eastern polls open until the California polls close, so no results are known until everyone has had a chance to vote.) Anyway, Obama seems to be the one inspiring people. I've said several times on this board that I think politicians should be speaking to the best side of our nature, and Obama does that.
Like you, I have reservations about him. I worry that he is too inexperienced at the national level. I am extremely uncomfortable with that. There doesn't seem to be anything to be done about that now. I'm just going to have to trust that he grows into the job fast.
I want the troops out, but I'm concerned that the Democrats are pushing too fast for it. Precipitate withdrawal is extremely dangerous. I don't see a good endgame for this mess Bush has created, no matter who is in charge. I'd like someone like Richardson or Biden as Secretary of State, but we won't know the winner's choices until after the election in November. (At least I don't recall any nominee announcing appointments before hand.)
I'm a partisan Democrat because the general Democratic philosophy of government is closest to what I believe. I have always objected to the general Republican philosophy, and have been even more upset with their style of governing under the present administration. I have been depressed since the fall of 1968. The Republican policy of rule through fear, hate and division has been enormously destructive. For me, Obama represents an end to all that, or at least the opportunity for an end. (We need a person of color to put a capstone on the end of the Civil Rights movement. We also need a woman president for the same symbolic gesture.) In the end, my point is that I vote more for party than for person.
Senator Clinton's comment about falling back probably comes from hurt feelings at the new poll numbers. I doubt she really means it the way she expressed it.
McCain would be the strongest Republican nominee because he has respect outside the party. I still doubt he can get the nomination because he's so disliked by the most conservative wing of the party and that's almost the only demographic the Republicans have left. Maybe they'll swallow their pride and nominate him. We'll see.
I could never abstain from an election. It isn't in me. When I was young, I threw a couple of temper tantrums and voted third party, but I wouldn't ever do that again. I've come to the conclusion that protest votes are just 'self abuse' (the m-word is not allowed here) that make the voter feel good but do not affect policy. My personal view is that voting isn't a right, it's a duty, an obligation. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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I don't see any of the candidates for the nomination getting the nod for VP from any other candidates. The only one without a job is Edwards, and he's burned his bridges. Hillary or Obama can always go back to the Senate and bide their time.
I think, and hope, that Wes Clark will get the VP position, and he would make life very difficult for any Republican.
Do you really think Paul will run as an indy, Gopher? He seems like a nutter to me, but he's probably too pragmatic to do so. It would end the tenuous ties he has to the Republican party. When he lost would he ever have another shot at a national political position? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Do you really think Paul will run as an indy, Gopher? He seems like a nutter to me, but he's probably too pragmatic to do so. It would end the tenuous ties he has to the Republican party. When he lost would he ever have another shot at a national political position? |
(I'm not gopher)
At RP's age, what does he have to lose? This is his last shot (probably). I also think he believes his own hype and thinks he can win. (He is not fully in contact with reality.) I hope he does run. What else would he do with all that money? |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: |
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Senator Clinton Just Surrendered to Obama?
Ya-ta Boy, that's quite a trollish headline. Didn't think you had it in you. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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I thought he was going to mention the line in the debate where she said something like "we don't want a candidate who will raise false hopes"... when I heard that, my first thought was "she just blew whatever chance she had left".
If she lets Obama be the Candidate of Hope, she's toast, and all appearances are that she has done just that. (The qualifier "false" isn't even relevant; it's too obviously a defensive play.) |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Czarjorge wrote: |
I don't see any of the candidates for the nomination getting the nod for VP from any other candidates. The only one without a job is Edwards, and he's burned his bridges. Hillary or Obama can always go back to the Senate and bide their time.
I think, and hope, that Wes Clark will get the VP position, and he would make life very difficult for any Republican.
Do you really think Paul will run as an indy, Gopher? He seems like a nutter to me, but he's probably too pragmatic to do so. It would end the tenuous ties he has to the Republican party. When he lost would he ever have another shot at a national political position? |
That would have been the case 4 years ago but Clark made some statments on the Huffington Post that can be used against him
A better choice would be Bob Kerry. But I am not in the business of giving advice to the other side. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| My personal view is that voting isn't a right, it's a duty, an obligation. |
I agree. But I also think abstaining is a vote, too. Consciously abstaining is different from missing or ignoring the election. Splitting hairs perhaps. But there is a philosophical difference.
I may not need to abstain, in any case. McCain and Clinton would have my vote today; and my attitude towards Obama is one of someone looking for reasons to support him. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| VanIslander wrote: |
Senator Clinton Just Surrendered to Obama?
Ya-ta Boy, that's quite a trollish headline. Didn't think you had it in you. |
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Octavius Hite
Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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| The dream: Obama asks Mike Bloomberg to be VP as an independant to help fix the problems, or Chuck Hagel. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Ya-ta Boy, that's quite a trollish headline. Didn't think you had it in you. |
Thank you...on both counts. 
While my title was meant to be an exaggeration, no one who still has hopes of winning says, "We'll keep fighting." It is an admission of defeat. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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I just looked at Real Clear Politics' polls for South Carolina. I think that sound you hear is the fat lady singing.
January 7, 2008
SC Poll: Obama, Huckabee Up Big
More numbers out of the Palmetto State to chew on from SurveyUSA (Jan 4-6; 579 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4.2%; 658 GOP LV, MoE +/- 3.9%). On the Democratic side, what was a 2-point Clinton lead three weeks ago is now a 20-point Obama blowout:
Democrats
Obama 50 (+11 vs. last poll Dec 17-1
Clinton 30 (-11)
Edwards 16 (-1)
Obama holds an 11.0-point lead in the RCP Average for South Carolina
On the Republican side, Huckabee appears to have gotten a decent pop, Romney and McCain have held their own, while Thompson and Giuliani slipped slightly:
Republicans
Huckabee 36 (+8 vs. last poll Dec 17-1
Romney 19 (+1)
McCain 17 (+1)
Thompson 11 (-4)
Giuliani 9 (-3)
Paul 5
Huckabee holds an 8.3-point lead in the RCP Average for South Carolina |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Lots of people win the first couple states and don't actually win the nomination. |
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: The fat lady is warming up to sing |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Fading in polls, Clinton vows to fight on
PORTSMOUTH, New Hampshire (Reuters) - A teary-eyed Hillary Clinton pushed for support on Monday as polls showed her poised for a huge New Hampshire loss to Democratic rival Barack Obama, but the former front-runner vowed to carry on with her presidential quest even if she loses.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080107/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc
The Democratic race is over. The people of New Hampshire are doing what Iowans did. Barring an Obama blunder this month, the Dems will have their candidate chosen by February. I'm certain all the other candidates will drop out within a few weeks, Obama will be able to save money, rest, and prepare for the party convention and make his VeeP choice while the Republicans are slashing each other to pieces. |
Crying for votes is this years Primordial scream.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5FzCeV0ZFc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfRLEvQsv9A |
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