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Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Here's an article that may be of interest. It indicates states later in the nomination cycle will still have a shot at influencing the outcome. Go Oregon!

WASHINGTON - Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday.

The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_el_pr/super_tuesday_not_over

Czarjorge · Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject:

I heard the same analysis on NPR this morning. It may go all the way to the convention, and don't count of Edwards' role before then. He may stay in it just to secure a roll in the party's future. It will be interesting to see what happens at the Dem convention if things keep going the way they have. I wonder if Obama will roll over, or if his contender status will win him the VP slot. And given the Clinton's increasingly negative campaigning who knows if he would even be interested.

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

Ya-Ta,

Ha, funny you said, "go Oregon". I'm still trying to decide whether I want to vote as part of the Democrats Abroad delegation or wait for Oregon in May. I wish the DA was a little further in Feb so I could see what will happen on SDT. It's a tough choice though. I feel that Oregon probably will not be a factor this year, which is why I'm leaning toward voting as a DA member.

While it's clear maybe Feb 5th won't clinch it, the states later in Feb could if the right mathmatical wins occured. If I remember right, Penn is in April and then a small number of them in May and June. I'd think by Penn it will be decided. March is essentially a non-voting month (last I looked), which could sway enough super delgates one way or another. I disagree, I think the super delegates will decide this as they will have pressure put on them to do so soon. I hope I'm wrong, but this is just a feeling I have.

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Czarjorge · Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:50 pm Post subject:

Good for them.

After watching the Rep debate tonight I think Obama looks even better. Especially with Romney aping his message. Those jokers are out for Hillsy's blood.

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

The Clinton's won't lie anymore. That will last 5 minutes.

stillnotking · Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Location: Oregon, USA

"Mathematically impossible" to lock up the required delegates? Well, sure, that would just about always be the case. And it's irrelevant. What's relevant is who can claim victory on Super Tuesday and garner the all-important aura of inevitability.

This is like saying the Iowa & New Hampshire caucuses don't decide anything because those two states don't have enough delegates to swing the nomination. Mathematically true, but historically speaking, any candidate who won IA & NH has always gotten the nom.

I'd be willing to bet a rather large amount of money that the candidate in each party who picks up the most delegates on Feb 5 will be the eventual nominee. Unless there is a deadlocked convention, in which case Edwards becomes kingmaker. However, it's extremely rare for the nominee to not yet be decided when the convention arrives.