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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Gates on Nature of Iranian Threat... |
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He may serve the W. Bush Admin. But he still sounds like a Realist to me...
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Morning Edition, January 17, 2008 � Iran poses "significant challenges" but is not a direct military threat to the United States in the near term, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in an NPR interview. Gates also said he has no plans to send more troops to Afghanistan beyond the recently announced deployment of about 3,000 Marines.
In an interview with Steve Inskeep, Gates discussed threats to American security and how he judges where U.S. forces need to be... |
NPR Reports |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:09 pm Post subject: |
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| There is probably going to be a cold war between the US and Iran. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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Here is more on the same story, from another source. I'm sorry to hear the '5 to 10 years' timeline. I was hoping for something in the 2-3 year range.
US sees slow, steady Iraq troop decline
WASHINGTON - As security conditions improve in Iraq, the U.S. should be able to reduce forces at a slow but consistent pace beyond this summer, but air support and ground troops likely will be needed for five to 10 years, a top military commander said Thursday.
Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 commander in Iraq, also said he believes Iraqi forces will be able to take over security in their country much quicker than they have suggested.
Full story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080117/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_iraq |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| There is probably going to be a cold war between the US and Iran. |
Yeah, and there will be a cold war between a herd of elephants and a couple mice too. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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But Iran has been out to get the US for more than 25 years.
That isn't going to change until the US has what it takes to force Iran to stop.The US doesn't have all it needs now but it reach the point where it does.
You know Iran is a lot more powerful than Al Qaeda is. And AQ was to do 9-11.
Last edited by Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee on Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:58 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, and I'm out to get Scarlet Johanson. And? |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: |
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Well you weren't got to get her this way.
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Shipment of high explosives intercepted in Iraq
Most sophisticated of roadside bombs reportedly coming from Iran |
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8829929/
9/11 Commission Finds Ties Between al-Qaeda and Iran
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| Senior U.S. officials have told TIME that the 9/11 Commission's report will cite evidence suggesting that the 9/11 hijackers had previously passed through Iran |
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,664967,00.html
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| The American military said Tuesday that it had credible evidence linking Iranians and their Iraqi associates, detained here in raids last week, to criminal activities, including attacks against American forces. Evidence also emerged that some detainees had been involved in shipments of weapons to illegal armed groups in Iraq. |
http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F0061EF635550C748EDDAB0994DE404482
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| On June 25, 1996, Iran again attacked America at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, exploding a huge truck bomb that devastated Khobar Towers and murdered 19 U.S. airmen as they rested in their dormitory. These young heroes spent every day risking their lives enforcing the no-fly zone over southern Iraq; that is, protecting Iraqi Shiites from their own murderous tyrant. When I visited this horrific scene soon after the attack, I watched dozens of dedicated FBI agents combing through the wreckage in 120-degree heat, reverently handling the human remains of our brave young men. More than 400 of our Air Force men and women were wounded in this well-planned attack, and I was humbled by their courage and spirit. I later met with the families of our lost Khobar heroes and promised that we would do whatever was necessary to bring these terrorists to American justice. The courage and dignity these wonderful families have consistently exemplified has been one of the most powerful experiences of my 26 years of public service. |
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110003518
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Iran responsible for 1983 Marine barracks bombing, judge rules
Friday, May 30, 2003 Posted: 11:14 PM EDT (0314 GMT)
Marines search through the rubble for their missing comrades after the 1983 barracks bombing in Beirut, Lebanon.
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| WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran is responsible for the 1983 suicide bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, that killed 241 American servicemen, a U.S. District Court judge ruled Friday. |
http://www.cnn.com/2003/LAW/05/30/iran.barracks.bombing/
Amir Taheri: Khomeinists hammering new strategy to oust 'Great Satan'
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But at almost exactly the same time, militants from some 40 countries spread across the globe were trekking to Tehran for a 10-day "revolutionary jamboree" in which "a new strategy to confront the American Great Satan" will be hammered out. The event is scheduled to start on February 1 to mark the 25th anniversary of the return to Iran from exile of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the "Islamic Revolution".
It is not clear how many militants will attend, but the official media promise a massive turnout to underline the Islamic Republic's position as the "throbbing heart of world resistance to American arrogance."
The guest list reads like a who-is-who of global terror.
In fact, most of the organisations attending the event, labelled "Ten-Days of Dawn", are branded by the US and some European Union members as terrorist outfits. For more than two decades, Tehran has been a magnet for militant groups from many different national and ideological backgrounds.
The Islamic Republic's hospitality cuts across even religious divides. Militant Sunni organisations, including two linked to Al Qaida, Ansar al-Islam (Companions of Islam) and Hizb Islami (The Islamic Party), enjoy Iranian hospitality.
They are joined by Latin American guerrilla outfits, clandestine Irish organisations, Basque and Corsican separatists, and a variety of leftist groups from Spartacists to Trotskyites and Guevarists. Tehran is the only capital where all the Palestinian militant movements have offices and, in some cases, training and financial facilities. |
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/04/01/28/109235.html
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U.S.: Top Iran officials ordering bombs to Iraq
Orders to send armor-piercing bombs came from highest levels, official says |
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17097658/
The regime also teaches hate and incites violence as a military tactic which is the primary cause of terror.
Iran also supports Hizzbollah who couterfits US money and sells drugs.[/quote] |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: |
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| That isn't going to change until the US has what it takes to force Iran to stop. |
There is another option:
The economy is in a shambles, the government is highly unpopular with many people, half the population is under 25 and does not remember the Revolution...There is a reasonable chance that the Iranians will change their own government. There is room for cautious optimism.
International relations does not have to be viewed like a TV drama where all stories lines must be resolved in 60 minutes. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:03 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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| That isn't going to change until the US has what it takes to force Iran to stop. |
There is another option:
The economy is in a shambles, the government is highly unpopular with many people, half the population is under 25 and does not remember the Revolution...There is a reasonable chance that the Iranians will change their own government. There is room for cautious optimism.
International relations does not have to be viewed like a TV drama where all stories lines must be resolved in 60 minutes. |
Sure lets hope so.
However the US needs an insurance policy just in case that doesn't work out.
I am not saying the US ought to bomb Iran but the US ought to invest in what it takes so the US can deal with Iran in the most advantageous way for the US. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:11 am Post subject: |
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The is the first way to deal with Iran
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February 2, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
The Oil-Addicted Ayatollahs
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
MOSCOW
There may be only one thing dumber than getting addicted to consuming oil as a country � and that is getting addicted to selling it. Because getting addicted to selling oil can make your country really stupid, and if the price of oil suddenly drops, it can make your people really revolutionary. That�s the real story of the rise and fall of the Soviet Union � it overdosed on oil � and it could end up being the real story of Iran, if we�re smart.
It is hard to come to Moscow and not notice what the last five years of high oil prices have done for middle-class consumption here. Five years ago, it took me 35 minutes to drive from the Kremlin to Moscow�s airport. On Monday, it took me two and half hours. There was one long traffic jam from central Moscow to the airport, because a city built for 30,000 cars, which 10 years ago had 300,000 cars, today has three million cars and a ring of new suburbs.
How Russia deals with its oil and gas windfall is going to be a huge issue. But today I�d like to focus on how the Soviet Union was killed, in part, by its addiction to oil, and on how we might get leverage with Iran, based on its own addiction.
Economists have long studied this phenomenon, but I got focused on it here in Moscow after chatting with Vladimir Mau, the president of Russia�s Academy of National Economy. I mentioned to him that surely the Soviet Union died because oil fell to $10 a barrel shortly after Mikhail Gorbachev took office, not because of anything Ronald Reagan did. Actually, Professor Mau said, it was �high oil prices� that killed the Soviet Union. The sharp rise in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home and invading Afghanistan abroad � and then the collapse in prices in the �80s helped bring down the overextended empire.
Here�s the story: The inefficient Soviet economy survived in its early decades, Professor Mau explained, thanks to cheap agriculture, from peasants forced into collective farms, and cheap prison labor, used to erect state industries. Beginning in the 1960s, however, even these cheap inputs weren�t enough, and the Kremlin had to start importing, rather than exporting, grain. Things could have come unstuck then. But the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the sharp upsurge in oil prices � Russia was the world�s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia � gave the Soviet Union a 15-year lease on life from a third source of cheap resources: �oil and gas,� Professor Mau said.
The oil windfall gave the Brezhnev government �money to buy the support of different interest groups, like the agrarians, import some goods and buy off the military-industrial complex,� Professor Mau said. �The share of oil in total exports went from 10-to-15 percent to 40 percent.� This made the Soviet Union only more sclerotic. �The more oil you have, the less policy you need,� he noted.
In the 1970s, Russia exported oil and gas and �used this money to import food, consumer goods and machines for extracting oil and gas,� Professor Mau said. By the early 1980s, though, oil prices had started to sink � thanks in part to conservation efforts by the U.S. �One alternative for the Soviets was to decrease consumption, but the Kremlin couldn�t do that � it had been buying off all these constituencies,� Professor Mau explained. So �it started borrowing from abroad, using the money mostly for consumption and subsidies, to maintain popularity and stability.� Oil prices and production kept falling as Mr. Gorbachev tried reforming communism, but by then it was too late.
The parallel with Iran, Professor Mau said, is that the shah used Iran�s oil windfall after 1973 to push major modernization onto a still traditional Iranian society. The social backlash produced the ayatollahs of 1979. The ayatollahs used Iran�s oil windfall to lock themselves into power.
In 2005, Bloomberg.com reported, Iran�s government earned $44.6 billion from oil and spent $25 billion on subsidies � for housing, jobs, food and 34-cents-a-gallon gasoline � to buy off interest groups. Iran�s current populist president has further increased the goods and services being subsidized.
So if oil prices fall sharply again, Iran�s regime will have to take away many benefits from many Iranians, as the Soviets had to do. For a regime already unpopular with many of its people, that could cause all kinds of problems and give rise to an Ayatollah Gorbachev. We know how that ends. �Just look at the history of the Soviet Union,� Professor Mau said.
In short, the best tool we have for curbing Iran�s influence is not containment or engagement, but getting the price of oil down in the long term with conservation and an alternative-energy strategy. Let�s exploit Iran�s oil addiction by ending ours. |
This is the second thing the US needs (Project Thor/ Rods from God) to deal with Iran
If the US were to have both an alternative energy policy and the right weapons then negotiations with even a nuclear Iran would be easy.
Last edited by Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee on Fri Jan 18, 2008 4:01 am; edited 1 time in total |
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dogbert
Joined: 29 Jan 2003
Location: Killbox 90210
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:33 am Post subject: |
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"Project Thor"??
"Rods from God"????
That sounds like something loony IGTG would come up with. |
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ddeubel
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:05 am Post subject: |
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Atropy,
Nothing endures; all fades
Photographs yellow, stars burst
Even my lovers pearly whites
Seem to be vulnerable to cavities.
Only those minute bacteria, those earth turners
That hold the world on their shoulders
Seemed to have learned to be.
They die over and over, thus live forever.
They have learned that the laws of our universe,
Do not apply to the insignificant.
DD
http://eflclassroom.ning.com |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:39 am Post subject: |
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| If it doesn't rhyme, it isn't poetry. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:53 am Post subject: |
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| dogbert wrote: |
"Project Thor"??
"Rods from God"????
That sounds like something loony IGTG would come up with. |
Well the name came from science fiction. I don't care about the name. What is important is that Iran is denied the strategic benefits of having nuclear weapons. |
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Yurim
Joined: 02 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 7:12 am Post subject: |
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Entropy
Where do the atrophied go? Where did they go? Where will they go?
| ddeubel wrote: |
Atropy,
Nothing endures; all fades
Photographs yellow, stars burst
Even my lovers pearly whites
Seem to be vulnerable to cavities.
Only those minute bacteria, those earth turners
That hold the world on their shoulders
Seemed to have learned to be.
They die over and over, thus live forever.
They have learned that the laws of our universe,
Do not apply to the insignificant.
DD
http://eflclassroom.ning.com |
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