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Can civilization survive the worst?
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 7:43 am    Post subject: Can civilization survive the worst? Reply with quote

What if Doomsday arrived, changing the face of the Earth?

Could the work of humanity be so thoroughly erased that future generations would regard ours as a myth much like Atlantis?

Or has information become so widely disseminated through digital technology that the technological and cultural record could never be lost? How long would these CDs, DVDs and hard drives keep working? Or are digital media more ephemeral than good old books?

We face a variety of potential threats. Nuclear war is presumably no longer an issue, but a variety of natural disasters, we now know, have caused worldwide devastation in the past.

If nothing else, global warming is threatening extensive destruction of plant and animal species.

Norway is prepared to seed the future, with a sort of flora time capsule containing plant seeds from around the world.

Quote:
LONGYEARBYEN, Norway (CNN) -- A vast underground vault storing millions of seeds from around the world is scheduled to open this week in a mountain on a remote island near the Arctic Ocean.

Dubbed the "Doomsday Vault," the seed bank is considered the ultimate safety net for the world's seed collections, protecting them from a wide range of threats including war, natural disasters, lack of funding or simply poor agricultural management.

The Norwegian government paid to build the vault in a mountainside near Longyearbyen, in the remote Svalbard islands between Norway and the North Pole. Building began last year, and the vault is scheduled to open officially Tuesday.

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, as it is officially known, can hold as many as 4.5 million seed samples and will eventually house almost every variety of most important food crops in the world, according to the Global Crop Diversity Trust, which is paying to collect and maintain the seeds.

The United Nations founded the trust in 2004 to support the long-term conservation of crop diversity, and countries and foundations provide the funding.

"The seed vault is the perfect place for keeping seeds safe for centuries," said Cary Fowler, executive director of the trust. "At these temperatures, seeds for important crops like wheat, barley and peas can last for up to 10,000 years."

The vault's location deep inside a mountain in the frozen north ensures the seeds can be stored safely no matter what happens outside.

"We believe the design of the facility will ensure that the seeds will stay well-preserved even if such forces as global warming raise temperatures outside the facility," said Magnus Bredeli Tveiten, project manager for the Norwegian government.

The vault sits at the end of a 120-meter (131-yard) tunnel blasted inside the mountain. Workers used a refrigeration system to bring the vault to -18 degrees Celsius (just below 0 degrees Fahrenheit), and a smaller refrigeration system plus the area's natural permafrost and the mountain's thick rock will keep the vault at least -4 C (25 F).

More....

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/25/norway.seeds/index.html

It is not the first time capsule, of course.

One early effort to preserve a small catalog of civilization is located in Atlanta, Georgia, in a specially constructed basement at Oglethorpe University, created shortly before WWII. It is to be opened May 28, 8113.

http://www.oglethorpe.edu/about_us/crypt_of_civilization/inventory.asp

http://www.oglethorpe.edu/about_us/crypt_of_civilization/pictures.asp

http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=414

Could we be the new and future Atlantis?

Could civilization survive even if more than 90 percent of the population died from a catastrophe?

What do you think?

And where would you want to be, if the worst arrived?
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nicholas_chiasson



Joined: 14 Jun 2007
Location: Samcheok

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 7:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

define survive. The maya civilization collapsed before the arrival of the Spainish, yet we know how to read most of their writing. the Atlantis civilization was likely related to the Thera caldera. The world is a big place, and if 90% were destroyed...600,000,000 live... a number twice the population of the US. So in other words...yes.
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xeno439



Joined: 30 Nov 2005

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think by survive he means actually continue to live, not just have our history, culture, language, etc. remembered.
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Julius



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It shows a complete ignorance of ecology and typical selfish approach that excludes nature.

No earth could survive with only corn cobs and pear trees growing. It requires a massive wild diversity of plants and insects etc to keep ticking over.

What would pollinate these crops exactly without bugs and birds to do the job?
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nicholas_chiasson



Joined: 14 Jun 2007
Location: Samcheok

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nature is self correcting. dinosaurs died out...very very quickly...ice ages occur. at best global warming speeds up a normal process. granted a normal process that kills millions of people in worse case, but one that will self correct. If one believes in the old earth theory, of the billions of years man has been a factor for only 60 million or so. I think we exagerate our influence.
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I assume the human race would survive just about anything, given all our resources. But would there be enough skilled people to keep our complex technological and industrial system operating? And without it, could we preserve our culture, our knowledge? Could we do this with, say, 6 million people, or perhaps 600,000?

There are forces of nature that could kill substantially more than 90 percent of humanity, and they could strike with perhaps only weeks or days of notice. The most statistically probable seems to be the supervolcano.

There have been many supervolcanoes that have erupted in the historic past, with a VEI rating of 6 or so, including Vesuvius and Krakatoa. But a truly devastating supervolcano has a VEI rating of 8. The most recent major supervolcano to erupt was Toba, about 70,000 years ago. Geneticists believe it killed all but about 20,000 humans, total, on the planet. It is called the Toba Catastrophe. Toba is in Indonesia. Whenever I read about a large earthquake in Indonesia, it makes me a little nervous. We've had several in the past days. But seismic activity is common there.

While Toba is not active, there are four historic supervolcanoes that do show life. One lies under Yellowstone National Park. The others are Long Valley in California, Rabaul in Papua, New Guinea, and Santa Maria in Guatemala. A big enough eruption from a supervolcano could cover the entire planet in ash several inches to several feet deep, and blot out the sun for months or years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano

The only other disaster of world-wide effect that has happened in the past is a large asteroid impact. But it would be conceit to believe a few hundred years of science is enough to gauge all the risks we face in a rapidly changing environment.
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twg



Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Location: Getting some fresh air...

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:44 am    Post subject: Re: Can civilization survive the worst? Reply with quote

Anything that will wipe us out will probably wipe out most of the life on the planet with us. In that case, all of our achievements will likely return to dust before another intelligent species arises... if one ever does.... so it doesn't matter.

Civilizations, on the other hand come and go. Ours won't be any different, and while there will be a huge loss of population due to the fact that we can't support what we got with pre-modern technology, the species should survive.

Unless, of course, we've altered our environment/ ecosystem to the point that we can't adapt to it in the future.

Personally, I foresee a slow, pitiful extinction over the next few thousand years.
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Darashii



Joined: 08 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully aliens have recorded our signals and will seek us out, hoping to find out who shot JR.
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browneyedgirl



Joined: 17 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 6:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Can civilization survive the worst? Reply with quote

It would just become stories. Other civilizations have lost impressive knowledge in just a few generations. Think about, you jump in your car, and even if you knew kind of how it works, would you be able to rebuild one with just that? No, unless you knew not only how all the parts worked, but also how to manufacture each part from natural resources.

People should worry about hybrid plants that can�t be grown from seeds- if something like your Doomsday happened, it would be very hard to supply people with food.
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RACETRAITOR



Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 7:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Can civilization survive the worst? Reply with quote

pharflung wrote:
What if Doomsday arrived, changing the face of the Earth?

Could the work of humanity be so thoroughly erased that future generations would regard ours as a myth much like Atlantis?

Or has information become so widely disseminated through digital technology that the technological and cultural record could never be lost? How long would these CDs, DVDs and hard drives keep working? Or are digital media more ephemeral than good old books?


I doubt CDs would last longer than 30 years. All digital information would be destroyed within a century.

Modern society isn't built to last without constant maintenance. Our buildings are not as sturdily built as the pyramids. Anyone remember the name of that book released recently that looked at how much time it would take for nature to erase all traces of New York from the world?
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cbclark4



Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do not think Civilization can survive religion.
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kermo



Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Location: Eating eggs, with a comb, out of a shoe.

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A newspaper in Vancouver has been running a series of worst case scenarios about what they would do in case of a chemical spill, volcano, etc. Can't remember which one, but it's probably worth a look.

I wanted to comment, however, because I first read the title as "Can Civilization Survive The West?" Smile
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uberscheisse



Joined: 02 Dec 2003
Location: japan is better than korea.

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kermo wrote:
A newspaper in Vancouver has been running a series of worst case scenarios about what they would do in case of a chemical spill, volcano, etc. Can't remember which one, but it's probably worth a look.


it's the vancouver province and it's on par with reading the enquirer.
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wormholes101



Joined: 11 Mar 2003

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If civilization came to an end, it's a hell long walk to Norway! Wink
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Czarjorge



Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a few data dumps in the world. Theoretically these would house all the scientific and cultural knowledge of the world.

If Norway is collecting seeds, I wonder if someone is collecting DNA imprints of all the creatures in the world.
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