Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Kuros]

This thread is dedicated to the Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania primary.

(I realize that this is not the next primary, but its pretty important)

Here are some poll results so far.

Clinton up 16-17% in OH and PA.

[stillnotking]

[stillnotking]

Clinton's surrogates are all frantically spinning the line that she MUST WIN Ohio and Texas in order to stay in the race. This indicates that she is absolutely positive she will win those states, and is hoping to win (or come close) in Wisconsin and Rhode Island, thus earning the "comeback kid" moniker and blunting Obama's momentum.

Here's the thing. There is no Clinton path to the nomination that does not involve a hideous floor fight at the convention -- over the seating of the FL/MI delegations, or the votes of super delegates trumping the elected delegates, or both. Her odds of going into the convention with a pledged-delegate lead (minus FL & MI) are effectively zero. She knows this. She also knows that a contested convention will divide the party, regardless of who is the nominee, and seriously weaken Democratic chances in November -- not just for the Presidential race but downticket as well.

My conclusion? Hillary is stabbing her party in the back in order to hang on to her last slim hope for the nomination. Now, is this expected? Sure. But it still burns me up. I have changed my mind. I am not voting for her in November. I will either vote third-party or Republican if Hillary is the nominee.

So what should Obama do? Two things. The first he's doing already: run against McCain. Assume the mantle of "frontrunner". Some call this arrogance. It's not; it's an exploitation of herd instinct. Everybody loves a winner. The second thing he needs to do is push the meme that OH & TX voters have a choice: not between Obama and Hillary, but between Obama and a vicious war at the convention. He needs to be explicit as to what the consequences will be if Denver winds up being a clusterf***.

I hope he can do it. If he closes the gap and manages to win either OH or TX, he will be the nominee, and as I said before, Hillary will be forced out of the race (probably immediately). If he doesn't close the gap before March 4, it will get very ugly and the Republicans will get very happy.

[Ya-ta Boy]

I get the feeling from some people that they want a re-play of 1968. Anti-war people wanted either Bobby Kennedy or Gene McCarthy. RFK was shot, leaving McCarthy and McGovern (as a stand in). In a snit of bad temper, they refused to vote for a liberal with the credentials of Hubert Humphrey, and as a result, let Richard Nixon become president. That opened the door for 40 years of disasterous conservative rule. Even the only two Democrats who were able to get into the White House didn't govern as liberals.

I see in the news today that the Republicans walked out of the House rather than vote on the contempt vote for Bush's aides, so I guess throwing temper tantrums because you can't live in a perfect world is OK for politicians, but c'mon...

[Milwaukiedave]

My suggestion is to remove references of PA since it is 6 weeks ahead of OH and TX, also don't forget there are a couple of other states on Mar 4th (though I don't have time to look them up now).

[stillnotking]

[cbclark4]

Seriously this is where it gets interesting.

Hilary needs to raise money and capture March 4 big like 75% big to keep
the Super-delegates on her side.

It's a momentum thing as well as a money thing.
(I listen to Donna Brazil)

If she wins by 60% or less, because of apportionment in these primaries
the delegate count will be very close.

If Obama continues to build his war chest while Hilary lends herself
money and continues staff shake ups, well confidence of the party
leadership weakens, these are the Super-delegates.


What's at stake:

Texas has 228 delegates to offer.

Ohio has 161 delegates to offer.

RI has 32 delegates to offer.

(I Almost forgot Vermont)
VT has 23 delegates to offer.

Totalling 444 for one day.

In order to come out ahead Hilary needs to win huge.


PA doesn't happen until mid April.

[mithridates]

I don't know anything about unions. How much effect is this going to have in real terms on the upcoming primaries?

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jOHi_1Y0UVOBGmYRzQ151Dn8z79AD8UQGHK00

[itaewonguy]

Barack Obama will be the next president of the united states!
you heard it here first kids...

[Milwaukiedave]

The union endorsement is encouraging. As anything else, the other side will downplay it (as it has wins in the caucus states).

The most important thing for me right now is Wisconsin and Hawaii next Tuesday.

As I have previously suggested, please take PA off the title of the thread since it is April 22nd and add RI and VT.

[cbclark4]

Wisconsin and Hawaii are insignificant.

[Milwaukiedave]

[Ya-ta Boy]

I can't believe anyone quoted Hunter S. Thompson in a serious context.

[Hater Depot]

I seem to remember another candidate this cycle who tried to sit back and rely on the big states.... former mayor of New York or something? I can barely even remember him now.

Union endorsements didn't deliver for Obama in Nevada even though the Clinton campaign thought they would. But anyway at this point I think it's clear that Obama has a much more viable path to the nomination.

[Czarjorge]