Korean Job Discussion Forums

[stevemcgarrett]

Received this membership letter from David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, today in response to the primary election results in Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere.

[Kuros]

It's too early to talk about Hillary's withdrawal

Chill out . . .

'68 or '96

I don't know. It seems to me the whole 'Hillary is tearing up the party' logic would have worked had Obama won Ohio OR Texas. I think Plouffe is pulling a Penn with this meme.

[stillnotking]

This is Clinton's strategy: go negative, tear down Obama to the point that she can close the pledged-delegate gap to less than 50 by convention time, then use Obama's weakened status to convince the super delegates to back her instead. Ideally, by that time she will have pulled into a popular-vote lead and will be ahead in national Democratic polls. Super-ideally, she will also have cut Obama's polling edge vs. McCain to the point that he can no longer use that as an argument.

It will be extremely difficult for her to convince the super delegates to vote against the pledged delegates, but it can be done if the above conditions are met. She might even be able to peel off some of Obama's pledged delegates -- pledged delegates aren't technically "pledged" at all, they can vote for whoever they want.

The downside? It produces a lot of ill will in the party, as scorched-earth strategies are wont to do. It will make it very difficult for her to win in November. But hey, a 30-40% chance of becoming President is better than a 0% chance, right? And who cares about the Party and the country, they can go hang.

I don't think any of this will actually work unless Obama folds completely, but it's what she's shooting for. No other scenario makes any sense at this point because it's effectively impossible for Clinton to get to the convention with a pledged-delegate lead.

[stillnotking]

[stevemcgarrett]

stillnotking:

Nope. Hillary won Texas 51% to 47% with all precincts reporting. The Hispanic vote carried her over the top there.

She only earned 1 more pledged delegate than Obama, though.

It's odd how she got the blue-collar vote in Ohio given that her husband pushed NAFTA and Obama has won big union endorsements. Not to mention the Black voting bloc is six times larger than the Hispanic bloc there. Wonder how she managed to pull that off?

[stillnotking]

[stevemcgarrett]

That's probably true, as Texas has to be Texas and have a quirky voting custom. As of now he trails by one pledged delegate, though.

[Milwaukiedave]

Notking,

I take it as though the Texas Primary was two parts or essentially two different contests. Hillary won the primary, but Obama is clearly winning the caucuses (though the results are far from complete). Based on the delegate count for RCP (which may be what Steve is looking at as well), Clinton gained 1 delegate more then Obama in Texas for both the primary and the caucus combined. As I stated, the totals aren't in yet for the caucus, so that could change either way.

Speaking of Texas, has the primary/caucus set up always been like (always being in the last 3 or 4 elections) or is this something new? I've never paid much attention to it before this year. It would be interesting to know the answer.

[Adventurer]

According to the words below, it seems like Obama will have won Texas over all if the trend continues with him beating her in the caucuses area.
This leads Obama in the lead and with Texas somewhat under his built.
Hillary has recovered somewhat from the stinging victories, but she can't afford any major losses as far as I can see. Obama, by taking Texas, even if narrowly protects his position. Hillary can still best Obama, but it remains to be seen. I think there is a very good chance that Obama will end up losing in the end, because Pennsylvania may go with Hillary. I am not sure how the white voters will vote over there to be frank, and she has a lot of support among white voters, though many white males like Obama. It is possible that both will be on the same ticket, anyway.
Obama is giving Hillary a run for her money, but you can't count her out at all.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/texas.caucus.count/index.html


As of Wednesday afternoon, Sen. Barack Obama led with about 55 percent of state delegates in the caucuses, compared to about 44 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton, with about 38 percent of the state reporting.

Clinton won the state's primary 51 percent to Obama's 48 percent. The state party awards the delegates proportionally statewide -- Clinton earned 65 delegates to Obama's 61.

The caucuses determine how the remaining third of Texas' delegates are allocated.

Clinton also won Tuesday in Ohio and Rhode Island, while Obama won Vermont.

[Kuros]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[stillnotking]