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JustJohn
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Location: Your computer screen
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 Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Won vs dollar predictions |
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I seem to be finding a lot of opposing information about where the won/dollar exchange rate is headed this summer.
Can any of our economic gurus explain what's going on here and here? |
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afsjesse
Joined: 23 Sep 2007
Location: Kickin' it in 'Kato town.
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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My novus opinion is that the later site shows predictions made by investment firms and banks prior to the Sub Prime Mortgage crisis. It is true the won has shot up and that this last week recovered some what. Current KEB exchange is 1016 to the USD.
No one can predict for sure how far it will rise or fall because there are too many unknowns. To name a few: Depth of US crisis, growth of world economy, investment in Korea, demand of Korean exports etc...... I did read last week that the government did step in to stop the won from falling any further. Whether or not this is why its going up is beyond my recollection, but I dont know how long they can do this for. Market indicators are set based on investment and risk factor scenarios. I predict the won is going to fall harder, maybe to 1100 within one month or so if the government doesn't keep it afloat. |
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mrsquirrel
Joined: 13 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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Dollar is worthless
Dollars tough to sell on streets of Amsterdam
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AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are turning away tourists seeking to sell their dollars for local money while on vacation in the Netherlands.
ADVERTISEMENT
"Our dollar is worth maybe zero over here," said Mary Kelly, an American tourist from Indianapolis, Indiana, in front of the Anne Frank house. "It's hard to find a place to exchange. We have to go downtown, to the central station or post office."
That's because the smaller currency exchanges -- despite buy/sell spreads that make it easier for them to make money by exchanging small amounts of currency -- don't want to be caught holding dollars that could be worth less by the time they can sell them.
The dollar hovered near record lows on Monday, with one euro worth around $1.58 versus $1.47 a month ago.
(Reporting by Svebor Kranjc, writing by Reed Stevenson) |
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080317/bs_nm/dollar_dc_1 |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:45 am Post subject: |
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Here is a brilliant guy in plain language explaining where the dollar is going.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=airxvVmGnqc&feature=related
Then the question is what the won going to do. The Korean government appears ready to let the won fall to keep exporters going. The dollar is in a short term recovery, but it won't last because of fundamentals. |
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samd
Joined: 03 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:55 am Post subject: |
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Lol at exchange rate predictions.
There is no way anyone can, or has been able to in the past, or probably will be able to in the future, predict whether a currency will rise or fall.
Anyone who claims to have such skills would be the richest person in the world if they were telling the truth. |
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RJjr
Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 10:44 am Post subject: |
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In my guess, debt issues and problems with the finance sector in general should push the US dollar and won both downward against most major currencies. I like silver.
My goal/wet dream is to sell silver at $100 per ounce, wire some of it to Seoul at a 2000:1 won to dollar exchange and let it appreciate to 900:1 plus interest.  |
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Zaria32
Joined: 04 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Predicting currency moves is harder than predicting when the earth will explode... |
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spliff
Joined: 19 Jan 2004
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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| The exchange is looking better today, I hope this trend continues. |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 2:59 am Post subject: Re: Won vs dollar predictions |
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| JustJohn wrote: |
I seem to be finding a lot of opposing information about where the won/dollar exchange rate is headed this summer.
Can any of our economic gurus explain what's going on here and here? |
read my comments in a different thread on this matter.
essentially the won's fate is tied in to potential stabilization in the US stock market.
I suggested stabilization was potentially at hand. (and why - reason being the Fed has indicated it will do anything/everything and throw the kitchen sink at the mortgage/banking mess)
that was about 300 Dow pts ago. |
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JustJohn
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Location: Your computer screen
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:31 am Post subject: |
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So you're saying if the feds throw everything at the stock market (which they do seem to be doing, though perhaps not wisely) then the won will get stronger against the dollar?
I know it looks like the dollar will probably crash not that long from now, but I'm just trying to figure out what's going on with the dollar vs won short term (next 3-6 months). |
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bogey666
Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: essentially yes |
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| JustJohn wrote: |
So you're saying if the feds throw everything at the stock market (which they do seem to be doing, though perhaps not wisely) then the won will get stronger against the dollar?
I know it looks like the dollar will probably crash not that long from now, but I'm just trying to figure out what's going on with the dollar vs won short term (next 3-6 months). |
it's a bit more complex than that (I have to kind of generalize here) .. but Korea is above all an export driven economy and economic turmoil from one of their biggest markets would severely hurt Korea and their exports.
This is why the won was suffering as the stock market was tanking in the US, but other currencies were strengthening.
it should also be noted that the Korean Central Bank intevened in the currency markets 2 days ago and bought dollars. (won was falling too fast) |
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fortysixyou
Joined: 08 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:43 am Post subject: Re: essentially yes |
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| JustJohn wrote: |
I know it looks like the dollar will probably crash not that long from now, but I'm just trying to figure out what's going on with the dollar vs won short term (next 3-6 months). |
Exactly. Same here. Perhaps same everywhere? |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 5:14 am Post subject: |
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The won is trading erratically against the dollar this week because of conflicting comments coming from Korean Central Bank chief and President Lee. When they talk about raising or keeping interest rates high, the won will rally. If they mention dropping interest rates, the won will fall.
Here is an article which shows how the Koreans don't have their act together and explains Tuesday move in the won.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23786380 |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: |
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I'm no currency prediction expert, so I went looking for someone that is.
Via RatesFX.com
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95% prediction interval
1 Mo low 1 Mo high 3 Mo low 3 Mo high
972.7265 1065.9666 978.7220 1146.8676 |
Hmm... this is a lot worse that I had expected. I was expected the won to raise back up to 940 the last time we talked about this. |
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spliff
Joined: 19 Jan 2004
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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This morning:
10,000,000.00 KRW=10,258.666 USD
South Korea Won
1 KRW = 0.00102587 USD
United States Dollars
1 USD = 974.786 KRW |
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