|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
|
 Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: "This Is Not Your Normal Downturn" |
 |
|
Tuscon & The Great Depression - This Is Not Your Normal Downturn
By Darryl Robert Schoon
http://www.kitco.com/ind/schoon/apr222008.html
| Quote: |
Both my parents were born in Tucson, so it was perhaps not that unusual when Martha and I left San Francisco and moved to Tucson in 1999. In the late 1940s as a young boy, I remember watching a woman with her pail of still warm homemade tortillas slowly make her way up the alley in Tucson�s summer heat towards my grandmother�s house in the Armory Park area.
The smell, taste, and texture of those wonderful warm flour tortillas wrapped around the beans my grandmother had cooked are still with me today. But the Tucson we returned to in 1999 was far different than what I remember as a young boy. What is the same, however, is also familial, but in a far different sense.
My father and mother had grown up during the 1930s, the depression years, in Tucson. They had both managed to graduate from college, no small feat especially in those difficult times; but it was clear, even to me as a young boy, that the Great Depression had left its indelible mark on the way my parents viewed the world.
Today, Tucson is far different from the Tucson of the 1930s. But, soon, not tomorrow, but perhaps in the not too distant future, the economic suffering that characterized the Great Depression may again be returning to the town and nation of my parents� youth.
THIS IS WHY
In the 1990s, I had become interested in the causes of the Great Depression, that unique and catastrophic event that brought the world economy to a halt. The depression had occurred after the 1920s stock market bubble collapsed in 1929; and, when the dot.com bubble collapsed in 2000, I found disturbing parallels between the two eras and the two bubbles.
The 1990s upwards rise of the stock market was similar to the upward rise of the Dow in the 1920s, driven then by the spread of radio much as the spread of computers drove the NASDAQ to just as unrealistic highs in 2000.
Martha and I moved to Tucson just before the dot.com bubble collapsed. The money pouring into Silicon Valley had affected the entire bay area. Rents and housing were far beyond the range of those who previously lived there, and for that and other reasons, it was yet another sign that we should consider the warmth of Arizona and the hospitality of Tucson before the rest of our generation found it.
But when we arrived in Tucson, we were to witness yet another extraordinary bubble, what was to become the largest bubble in history - the US real estate bubble of 2002-2006.
Because of my reading about the economic events of the 1930s, I was well aware of what happens when large speculative bubbles collapse, that the enormous levels of debt left behind as a result of leveraged speculation could plunge the nation and the world into another recession at best and another depression at worst. Those then in charge of the US economy, Alan Greenspan and others at the Fed, knew it too.
To prevent it from happening, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25 % to 1 % and unleashed a flood of cheap credit in the hopes of reversing the 2001 economic downturn. But because of changes in financial packaging and the repealing of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 which was enacted in 1933 to prevent other depressions, the effect of cheap credit in 2002 was to have an unexpected consequence - an enormous bubble far larger than even the dot.com bubble.
Real estate mortgages, instead of being held on the books of local banks, were now packaged and sold by Wall Street investment banks to yield hungry buyers around the world, buyers who had no way of knowing that the payments on a $500,000 mortgage were to be made by a $9.00 per hour convenience store clerk who had been sold a don�t ask don�t tell no-money down adjustable-rate mortgage by a broker whose incentive was the considerable up-front fees collected at the time of sale made possible by the Fed�s 1 % money.
WHERE WE ARE TODAY
In 2008, the convenience store clerk hasn�t made a payment in months, the mortgage is in default, the house is in foreclosure, the yield hungry buyers (banks, pension funds, and insurance companies) are now aware their investments may never be repaid, mortgage brokers are looking for jobs, and the Wall Street investment banks that bought, packaged, and sold $1.5 trillion of subprime mortgages are themselves caught holding billions of dollars of the highest tranches of subprime debt once thought to be safe but are not.
The investment banks, however, those who created subprime mortgages and profited from this bubble are now being bailed out by their colleagues at the Federal Reserve. The US Federal Reserve Bank, the private bank in charge of the public�s money, is now allowing global investment banks to trade their suspect subprime investments for US Treasuries, gratis of US taxpayers who also recently indemnified investment bank JP Morgan Chase�s purchase of investment bank Bear Stearns against any loss, all upside accruing to the shareholders of JP Morgan Chase.
WHAT TOMORROW WILL BRING
While many in Tucson are now aware that something is seriously wrong with the economy; that their homes are going down in value while the price of gas is going up, they, like most Americans, have no idea about the real reasons for the downturn.
As I looked deeper into the causes of what is about to happen, gold and silver, the role of the Federal Reserve in issuing debt as money, and the complicit duplicity between public government and private bankers have become more important in understanding the reasons for the economic collapse that is about to happen.
The gold and silver on-line community has become the prized arena where far from the corporate controlled media, the implications of central bank gold manipulation, the distorted measures of inflation and unemployment issued by the US government, and the disturbing denial of the populace who will soon be affected by what they don�t know are parsed and discussed.
I wonder what Americans would do if they truly understood the trouble they are in. I wonder what they would do if they knew America�s gold had been spent by the military-industrial complex in 1950-1970. I wonder what they would do if they knew about the dangers posed by investment bank credit default swaps, CDSs, a $62 trillion unregulated market that could destroy the global economy as quickly and as easily as charged explosives brought down three towers at the World Trade Center on 9/11 (regarding CDSs, I highly recommend Thomas Tan�s article Why Wall St. Needed Credit Default Swaps (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1208412360.php)).
Today, the corporate controlled US media diverts America�s attention away from the real reasons and instead fuels the fear that illegal immigration, China or Iran are the reason for America�s increasing problems. The truth, however, is much simpler and much less sinister. The truth is that we have brought this on ourselves. |
Please return to your regular viewing pleasures. Nothing to see here.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
yawarakaijin
Joined: 08 Aug 2006
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| The truth, however, is much simpler and much less sinister. The truth is that we have brought this on ourselves. |
Come on, you know that that is completely impossible. It's the MUSLIMS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nicholas_chiasson
Joined: 14 Jun 2007
Location: Samcheok
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: |
|
|
| the truth is economics are a cycle that come and go, boom and bust. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:47 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| $62 trillion unregulated market that could destroy the global economy as quickly and as easily as charged explosives brought down three towers at the World Trade Center on 9/11 |
All respect lost right here. Anyone who thinks that it's necessary to resort to massive conspiracies and explosives to explain the collapse of buildings hit by what was effectively giant Fuel air explosives isn't worth listening too. Even if they're right it's for the wrong reasons. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Another economic downturn, another columnist claiming this is the big one. Geez. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
| good article. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Chicken Little nonsense! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:52 am Post subject: |
|
|
[quote="OneWayTraffic"]
| Quote: |
| Even if they're right it's for the wrong reasons. |
I find this comment very interesting. Would you be keen on explaining it in more detail? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Good article. Amazing how people now just casually cite the CDT stuff as if everybody already knows it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
[quote="loose_ends"]
| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Even if they're right it's for the wrong reasons. |
I find this comment very interesting. Would you be keen on explaining it in more detail? |
So casually claiming that the US government deliberately blew up thousands of its own citizens so Bush could go and fight a war and then managed to suppress it ruthlessly while allowing every Tom Dick and Harry to blog about the CDT is frankly ridiculous.
The fact that this gets mentioned as if it were the accepted truth, rather than a fringe theory, justifies a lot of skepticism on the other written 'facts' and the conclusions drawn from them. While many of their claims seem to be plausible, is it not likely that they have been drawn from a general mistrust and lack of understanding of the 'system' rather than a unbiased and expert analyis of the situation? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
[quote="OneWayTraffic"]
| loose_ends wrote: |
| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Even if they're right it's for the wrong reasons. |
I find this comment very interesting. Would you be keen on explaining it in more detail? |
So casually claiming that the US government deliberately blew up thousands of its own citizens so Bush could go and fight a war and then managed to suppress it ruthlessly while allowing every Tom Dick and Harry to blog about the CDT is frankly ridiculous.
The fact that this gets mentioned as if it were the accepted truth, rather than a fringe theory, justifies a lot of skepticism on the other written 'facts' and the conclusions drawn from them. While many of their claims seem to be plausible, is it not likely that they have been drawn from a general mistrust and lack of understanding of the 'system' rather than a unbiased and expert analyis of the situation? |
I certainly agree with you on your first point.
But I beg the question and ask sincerely, who would be a good unbiased expert to give analysis? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nicholas_chiasson
Joined: 14 Jun 2007
Location: Samcheok
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
loaning to poor people who then defaulted!
Oh my God! I couldn't see it happening! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
[quote="loose_ends"]
| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| loose_ends wrote: |
| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Even if they're right it's for the wrong reasons. |
I find this comment very interesting. Would you be keen on explaining it in more detail? |
So casually claiming that the US government deliberately blew up thousands of its own citizens so Bush could go and fight a war and then managed to suppress it ruthlessly while allowing every Tom Dick and Harry to blog about the CDT is frankly ridiculous.
The fact that this gets mentioned as if it were the accepted truth, rather than a fringe theory, justifies a lot of skepticism on the other written 'facts' and the conclusions drawn from them. While many of their claims seem to be plausible, is it not likely that they have been drawn from a general mistrust and lack of understanding of the 'system' rather than a unbiased and expert analyis of the situation? |
I certainly agree with you on your first point.
But I beg the question and ask sincerely, who would be a good unbiased expert to give analysis? |
Financial Times has written copiously on this topic.
It's a pretty good rule of thumb that anyone who tosses off "9/11 was an inside job" conspiracy theories as though they were obvious fact is not worth paying attention to. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pligganease
Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Location: The deep south...
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| stillnotking wrote: |
Financial Times has written copiously on this topic.
It's a pretty good rule of thumb that anyone who tosses off "9/11 was an inside job" conspiracy theories as though they were obvious fact is not worth paying attention to. |
Indeed. How can someone whose sole hobby is pointing out that everything that happens in The United States is the doing of a man who can't say "nuclear" be taken seriously? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| nicholas_chiasson wrote: |
loaning to poor people who then defaulted!
Oh my God! I couldn't see it happening! |
The strange thing is that I'm sure most people on Wall Street and investment banks DID see it happening. Stranger yet, they didn't really seem to care so much.
Now, that is short-term gain incentives to the extreme. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
