| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
|
 Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Pennsylvania is tied. And other states and polls and stuff |
 |
|
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9335.html
| Quote: |
New polls show Obama surge in Pa.
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 4/2/08 12:44 PM EST
Text Size:
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is surging in Pennsylvania, according to several new polls. In one survey, released by Public Policy Polling this morning, Obama is now leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time, 45 percent to 43 percent. That represents a closing of a 26-percentage-point Clinton advantage from only two and a half weeks ago.
The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary is scheduled for April 22.
Obama�s gains are largely due to a narrowing of the gap with white voters�29-percentage points according to PPP�but he continues to trail Clinton 49 to 38 percent among whites. In mid-March, according to PPP, Clinton led 63 percent to 23 percent among whites. That mid-March poll occurred prior to Obama�s race speech, at the height of the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
The PPP poll of 1224 likely Democratic primary voters between March 31 and April 1, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent, found that Obama has improved by double digits with both white women and white men. Today, PPP has Clinton leading 56 percent to 31 percent with white women. Obama leads 44 percent to 43 percent with white men.
Obama also improved with black voters, long his base. He now captures the support of three in four African Americans in the state.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, released April 1, had Clinton leading Obama by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. Clinton had a 13-point lead two weeks earlier, according to Rasmussen. Another poll released the same day by SurveyUSA shows Obama making more modest gains. That survey found that Clinton was still ahead by 12 points, though Obama had narrowed her lead by 7 points in the past three weeks.
Taken together, the polls suggest that Pennsylvania, a state that once looked to be a lock for Clinton, has become considerably more competitive. His surge is especially notable considering Pennsylvania�s demographics and its closed primary, two factors thought to be key advantages for Clinton.
|
Last edited by mithridates on Sat Apr 05, 2008 6:52 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Texas, which now seems to have actually gone Obama through a wildly convoluted Dem party election process, was looking like it might swing Obama, but the popular vote didn't work out that way.
If Obama wins Pennsylvania will Clinton quit? I doubt it. She's taking it to the convention, hoping to win via Superdelegates. If it happens it'll probably destory the party, but hey, I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 1:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Czarjorge wrote: |
| If it happens it'll probably destroy the party, but hey, I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. |
Me neither, Czarjorge. Me neither. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
FYI: Here is a link to the poll itself
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf
The poll was a touch tone telephone poll, which I have to wonder a bit in terms of accuracy. It is encouraging though to see Obama pick up some support in Penn and make it a somewhat close contest. A week ago I was just hoping for less then a 10 point win by Clinton.
Last edited by Milwaukiedave on Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The PPP poll that shows an Obama lead is crap. PPP couldn't find their asses with both hands and an ass-finding dog. Rasmussen is a better polling outfit, but SUSA is the best. If a SUSA poll is way out of the pack, it means all the other polls are outliers.
Clinton by 12 is probably about right, at this point in time. I expect Obama to close the gap a bit and lose by about 10%. I believe that's his demographic ceiling in this primary, honestly.
However, if the media narrative between now and the 22nd is that Clinton has already lost the race, or that a prolonged primary will lead to a President McCain, then you could see a lot of Clinton voters switching or staying home. I say could, because historically, when Clinton has been pronounced dead by the media, her base has rallied in response. This time, though, the clock is a lot closer to running out -- so who knows?
Bottom line: go with what SUSA says at any point in time. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
SKN,
Yeah that's what I was wondering about the PPP poll, hopefully some of the other polls be a bit more accurate. I'd say Clinton's lead is likely closer to a 10 point lead with three weeks left. He could pull closer then that, but I tend to agree with you that the demographics in Penn don't favor him much. Clinton clearly needs a 10+ point win to make any hay out of this. She can keep pushing back her firewall (even though she lost Texas) but she's running out of time and states. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
OMG! They're tied! Yes, that's what we're led to believe isn't it?
It's sooooo close, coming down to the wire, hanging on by a thread, it really could go either way!
Bread & Circuses |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
OMG! They're tied! Yes, that's what we're led to believe isn't it?
It's sooooo close, coming down to the wire, hanging on by a thread, it really could go either way!
Bread & Circuses |
I bet you must feel quite frustrated with us, IGTG. I mean, we're always so predictably latching on to the fantastical notions, the ones handed to us by the man.
How do you deal with knowing what you know, day in and day out? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
I bet you must feel quite frustrated with us, IGTG.
I mean, we're always so predictably latching on to the fantastical notions, the ones handed to us by the man. |
No, not too "frustrated" actually.
*shrugs*
More cynical really, as to a certain degree i'm able to clearly see through the web of lies that so many others such as yourself seem to
so proudly call home sweet home.
http://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com/
Predictable is indeed an operative word.
Metta. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
FUBAR
Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Location: The Y.C.
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:50 pm Post subject: |
|
|
If Hilary loses Pennsylvania she needs to step out of the race. She's already lost. Now she just needs to sack up and take it like a man if she loses this lead.
The longer she stays in this race, the less chance she has of ever successfully campaigning to become the Democratic Presidential Nominee in future races. I guessing she believes that this is her one and only shot at winning the nomination. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
web of lies that so many others such as yourself seem to
so proudly call home sweet home |
Its my matrix in my spider cave.
Your posts are like pure light, and it burns! It burns!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
igotthisguitar
Joined: 08 Apr 2003
Location: South Korea (Permanent Vacation)
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
web of lies that so many others such as yourself seem to
so proudly call home sweet home |
Its my matrix in my spider cave.
Your posts are like pure light, and it burns! It burns! |
 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
web of lies that so many others such as yourself seem to
so proudly call home sweet home |
Your posts are like pure light, and it burns! It burns! |
For once we are in an agreement. Someone should really get back on their medication. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| igotthisguitar wrote: |
OMG! They're tied! Yes, that's what we're led to believe isn't it?
It's sooooo close, coming down to the wire, hanging on by a thread, it really could go either way!
Bread & Circuses |
One of my favorite forms of entertainment is horse racing. Races are so exciting, aren't they?  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TexasPete
Joined: 24 May 2006
Location: Koreatown
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Czarjorge wrote: |
| If it happens it'll probably destory the party, but hey, I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. |
It may not be such a bad thing, but the idea of four more years of republicans running the show depresses the ever-liivng he!! out of me. My country's been run into the ground for the past 8 years and i don't want another four more years of the party that did it, continuing to do it. Regardless of that, if the Dems get the White House, they're inheriting a colossal mess which the Republicans will spin as the Dems fault for the next 4 years. It's a Catch 22. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
