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Tiger Beer

Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 12:15 am Post subject: Obama wins North Carolina; Clinton wins Indiana |
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How much longer is this thing going to go?
Clinton pledged to keep on keepin' on. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007 Location: Jeolla province
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:15 am Post subject: |
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Gen. Wes Clark, a strong Clinton supporter, has already called on Clinton to leave the race.
Her campaign is bloodied, broke, flailing around, and on the map.
I saw the results in between class. Pissing off the black electorate came back to haunt her BIG TIME in IN and NC. In IN alone, Blacks broke for Obama 92 to 8.
The Rush Limbaugh effect might have won her the state's popularity vote but it only gave her 2 delegates. With Obama's +15 margin in NC, that totally wipes out her gains from PA.
All she has left is the "Nuclear Option" the forced seating of Florida and Michigan on May 30th at the DNC meeting. But even that won't work.
She has canceled her meetings tomorrow and the next couple days. That's not the sign of a 'winner'.
It's over...Obama wins...Flawless victory! |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 5:00 am Post subject: |
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| She has canceled her meetings tomorrow and the next couple days. That's not the sign of a 'winner' |
Indeed it isn't. This may be a good sign. Typically, there is an announcement that the fight will continue, followed by a cancellation of campaign stops, then a surrender.
We can only hope she gives up before Kentucky and Oregon. |
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kabrams

Joined: 15 Mar 2008 Location: your Dad's house
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:21 am Post subject: |
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| I saw the results in between class. Pissing off the black electorate came back to haunt her BIG TIME in IN and NC. In IN alone, Blacks broke for Obama 92 to 8. |
I'm glad you said "pissing off the black electorate". Some people seem to think that blacks were voting for Obama in large numbers since the beginning.  |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Location: I walk along the avenue
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| kabrams wrote: |
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| I saw the results in between class. Pissing off the black electorate came back to haunt her BIG TIME in IN and NC. In IN alone, Blacks broke for Obama 92 to 8. |
I'm glad you said "pissing off the black electorate". Some people seem to think that blacks were voting for Obama in large numbers since the beginning.  |
I think that Bill and Hillary's mishandling of racial politics will go down in history as one of the great acts of self-immolation in American political history. Up there with Rum Rome And Rebellion. |
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Gopher

Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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I agree, unhappily, that Clinton's campaign will not likely secure the nomination and Obama's will.
| agentX wrote: |
| It's over...Obama wins...Flawless victory! |
Not so fast. How will Obama and his supporters treat Clinton and her supporters and vice versa? Finally, I would most probably have voted for Clinton over McCain this November. I will not vote for Obama over McCain. There must be others who share my politics. In any case, no flawless victories on Obama's horizon as far as I can tell. Indeed if that were truly the case, then he should have bagged the nomination Super Tues and McCain should be responding to Obama's initiatives by now. |
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Czarjorge

Joined: 01 May 2007 Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher, you may not change your mind, but I expect a number of people will. McCain hasn't been scrutinized thus far. He will be, and the McCain of 2000 is long gone. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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And add in the revelation that Clinton loaned her campaign another $6.4 million, which didn't come out until after the day after Indiana/North Carolina.
I think she's going to stay in the race until May 20th. His delegate pickup in Kentucky and Oregon should pretty much end it. The super delegates are starting to decide and it's clear Obama doesn't need that many to put him over the top. Last I looked Clinton still leads in super delegates, but only by 11. In the beginning of the year she lead by 100. |
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Adventurer

Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Milwaukiedave wrote: |
And add in the revelation that Clinton loaned her campaign another $6.4 million, which didn't come out until after the day after Indiana/North Carolina.
I think she's going to stay in the race until May 20th. His delegate pickup in Kentucky and Oregon should pretty much end it. The super delegates are starting to decide and it's clear Obama doesn't need that many to put him over the top. Last I looked Clinton still leads in super delegates, but only by 11. In the beginning of the year she lead by 100. |
It is safe to say, that Hillary Clinton has an uphill battle. Obama has a significant lead in delegates and more wins when it comes to states, a lot more votes when it comes to popular votes, and she barely won Indiana.
I thought she was going to win Indiana by a slightly larger margin say 2%, but I did believe he could lose by say 2%. If he won Indiana, do you think Hillary would have pulled out? I am not so sure. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:41 am Post subject: |
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I have a tendency to say no, she would have stayed in regardless of whether she won Indiana or not.
1) She has stated repeatedly she's in the race for the long run
2) She's pretty much expected easy wins in Kentucky and West Virginia
Personally I was a little shocked Indiana was as close as it was, I thought Obama would lose by at least 5%. The last time I looked she won by about 23,600 votes. She lost North Carolina by a good margin, so the popular vote argument is thrown out the window.
I've been saying consistantly for about a month (if you don't believe me go check my post history) I think this will end on May 20th. On that day, Oregon will go for Obama and he will enough delegates between pledged and super delegates to end it. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007 Location: Jeolla province
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 3:15 am Post subject: |
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One of her campaign members talked to a pundit and told him that the campaign's gonna run till June 3, try and force Florida and Michigan past the rules committee (the Nuke option) then try and convince the superdelegates for a week, and then hang it up on the 15th.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/hillary-will-drop-out-by_b_100625.html
It's kinda funny to see Clinton supporters want to vote for McCain because Obama has won. Especially in light of the fact that Hillary would have been McCain's opponent. Women voters should especially be worried, since McCain wants ultra-conservative judges in the form of Robert Bork.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/05/07/when-mccain-loved-robert-bork/
So, a vote for McCain means more judges even farther to the right of Alito.
That means no more
1) abortion
2) civil rights
3) consumer protections
4) habeas corpus
5) fair elections
6) free speech.
Wasn't/isn't Clinton in favor of all of these things, especially abortion?
I doubt that white women supporters of Hillary are gonna go running to a candidate that is their worst enemy. But hey, this is AMERICA we're talking about here. It's the Land of the Free, not the Land of the Smart. |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 4:48 am Post subject: |
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There's a good article here on the mistakes Clinton made:
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1738331,00.html
Especially these parts:
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2. She didn't master the rules
Clinton picked people for her team primarily for their loyalty to her, instead of their mastery of the game. That became abundantly clear in a strategy session last year, according to two people who were there. As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state's 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing any state to award them winner-take-all. Sitting nearby, veteran Democratic insider Harold M. Ickes, who had helped write those rules, was horrified � and let Penn know it. "How can it possibly be," Ickes asked, "that the much vaunted chief strategist doesn't understand proportional allocation?" And yet the strategy remained the same, with the campaign making its bet on big-state victories. |
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5. She never counted on a long haul
Clinton's strategy had been premised on delivering a knockout blow early. If she could win Iowa, she believed, the race would be over. Clinton spent lavishly there yet finished a disappointing third. What surprised the Obama forces was how long it took her campaign to retool. She fought him to a tie in the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests but didn't have any troops in place for the states that followed. Obama, on the other hand, was a train running hard on two or three tracks. Whatever the Chicago headquarters was unveiling to win immediate contests, it always had a separate operation setting up organizations in the states that were next. As far back as Feb. 21, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was spotted in Raleigh, N.C. He told the News & Observer that the state's primary, then more than 10 weeks away, "could end up being very important in the nomination fight." At the time, the idea seemed laughable. |
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djsmnc

Joined: 20 Jan 2003 Location: Dave's ESL Cafe
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:28 am Post subject: |
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I was in a hotel in the US recently and saw some Obama campaign people. There was one wering an airbrushed Obama shirt (like you'd find at the redneck county fair) arguing about having to pay full price for the room. He was like "We the Obama people, man! We sposed to get a discount, ain't we?"
Absolute uneducated filth. All of them were like that. No clue about the issues, just happy to hear someone make promises. One of them was this big thuggish dork with pants that showed his whole boxer short covered butt and a big gangsta rap cd cover looking Obama shirt. Some tatooed skank said "I like yo shirt" I was thinking 'I want to burn your shirt...while you are wearing it!!'
It was like one of those movies where all the freaks come out of the woodwork when the hero defeats the enemy. Like "The Time Machine" or "Stargate" |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| eh well Obama's supporters are stereotypically college grad elitists. Go to any college campus and you'll find hardly any Hillary supporters but plenty of Obama fans. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Mith,
I saw that article as well. The tactical errors began long before the campaign went into full swing.
You can add to the list:
1) Competing in and losing Iowa, which sucked up valuable resources and a dismal third place showing.
2) Not staying on message and allowing surrogates to create distractions
I'm sure there are other things you could add |
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